Turnaround Tuesday?

Tomorrow is election-day 2005. The two races worth watching are gubernatorial duels in New Jersey and Virginia. In NJ, Doug Forrester and Jon Corzine have been exchanging blows for political points at a pace that would make Golan Cipel blush. Corzine held a lead outside the margin of error until his ex-wife Joanne lent her voice to a classy TV ad declaring Corzine, “let his family down, and he’ll probably let New Jersey down, too.” Even Forrester supporters are questioning the move, but it seems to be having some results. Some polls now show the race tightening to within the margin of error, but with the edge still favoring Democrats.

In Virginia, Republican Jerry Kilgore has seen his longstanding lead over Tim Kaine evaporate into what nearly all polls now show is a slight Kaine edge.

Both races share a few things in common: weak candidates, perceived fallout from Bush’s unpopularity and a resigned sense of impending mediocrity no matter who wins.

In VA, both sides agree their get out the vote efforts will swing the election. While Kilgore trails Kaine, he does have RNC Chair Ken Mehlman helping to coordinate the GOTV effort of what some conservatives call “lazy voters.”

Technically, Democrats would only be holding ground by winning both races. Nonetheless, look for Tuesday to be both explained and understood as a referendum on the Bush agenda if Corzine/Kaine prevail. Bush himself has upped the stakes by agreeing to appear with Kilgore tonight for an election eve rally. And if Kaine pulls it off, look for Democrats to herald outgoing Governor Mark Warner as their best red state liaison for 2008. After all, Hillary will need a running mate.
— Eric Pfeiffer

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