'Barron's' Midterm Shocker: So-Called "Voters" No Match For Money
Give Barron's points for trying: We never read it and have only a vague idea of who does, but they've caught our attention this month with their (free for non-subscribers!) cover story. It insists that despite the predictions of everyone who actually covers and observes politics, that the Republicans will comfortably retain the House and Senate. What complex political analysis led them to this conclusion?
We studied every single race -- all 435 House seats and 33 in the Senate -- and based our predictions about the outcome in almost every race on which candidate had the largest campaign war chest, a sign of superior grass-roots support. We ignore the polls. Thus, our conclusions about individual races often differ from the conventional wisdom. Pollsters, for instance, have upstate New York Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds trailing Democratic challenger Jack Davis, who owns a manufacturing plant. But Reynolds raised $3.3 million in campaign contributions versus $1.6 million for Davis, so we score him the winner.
According to this method (which we've dubbed the "Calm down, Barron's readers, you capital gains will be ok" method), we can all look forward to another six years of Senators Santorum and Burns. And Mark Foley will be reelected in a landslide.