From BC04 strategist Matthew Dowd during this morning's campaign conference call:
I know this is a question that will come up, about what kind of bounce do we expect at our convention. Looking at it historically, incumbents usually get a bounce that's equal to about two-thirds of what the challenger's bounce is, so if you want to put that in your calculus: Incumbents get two-thirds of what the challenger got as their bounce, and two-thirds of zero is -- and my math is pretty simple here -- is zero. So, that's our expectation on our bounce.That nudging you feel is your expectations being managed. Bet they wish they had used this strategy for the WMD hunt . . . ("Historically, you only find two-thirds of the weapons that you have reliable intelligence for, and two-thirds of zero is. . . ")
