Exit Polls From GOP Pollster Luntz: Very Kerry

5:25 p.m.


From an email being circulated which uses numbers by GOP pollster Frank Luntz:

Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent

Fla.

Ohio

Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry

Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry

Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)

NM: Kerry plus 2

Nev: Bush plus 1

NH: Kerry by 3

NJ: 8 points for Kerry

Colo: Bush plus 2

Mich: Kerry plus 4

More, including Senate races, after the jump

From: [former Dem insider]

To: [various people at the company he now works for]

Subject: IMPORTANT EXIT POLLS FROM LUNTZ

This is 4 p.m. analysis by GOP pollster Frank Luntz, according to exit polls.Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win.

Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote. But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.) But . . .

When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident." Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting. Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer.

Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew.

Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP

Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle.

GOP picking up N.C. and S.C.

Bunning in Ky.

Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn)

Plus 3 for GOP.

Castor in Fla. is looking good.

Salazar up in Colo.

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