Graduates of the Electoral College

The addictive is apparently so gosh darn popular that it can't stay up. (We knew a political consultant like that once.) If you need your electoral college prediction fix, we suggest the Electoral College Meta-Analysis, even thought the title alone gives us very bad grad-school flashbacks. Current numbers:

Monday, November 1, 2004 at 12:00PM noon Eastern time

Median outcome, decided voters: Kerry 252 EV, Bush 286 EV (±40 EV MoE)

Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters (explanation): Bush leads Kerry by 0.9%

Predicted median with undecideds: Kerry 280 EV, Bush 258 EV

Electoral prediction with undecideds and turnout: Kerry 323 EV, Bush 215 EV

Popular vote prediction with undecideds and turnout: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Nader/other 2%

There's a lot of numbers and more current predictions at the bottom, for those of you who care about that sort of thing.

UPDATE: can be is mirrored at,, and on through 9.

Electoral College Meta-Analysis []


Political Junkie (B 264, K 274)

Slate (B 269, K 269, we suspect he's just trying to freak our shit out. . . working!)

University of Michigan's 2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions (two: B 268, K 270; B: 273.5, 264.5 . . . Yeah, we know. It's complicated.)


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