The addictive electoral-vote.com is apparently so gosh darn popular that it can't stay up. (We knew a political consultant like that once.) If you need your electoral college prediction fix, we suggest the Electoral College Meta-Analysis, even thought the title alone gives us very bad grad-school flashbacks. Current numbers:
Monday, November 1, 2004 at 12:00PM noon Eastern timeThere's a lot of numbers and more current predictions at the bottom, for those of you who care about that sort of thing.Median outcome, decided voters: Kerry 252 EV, Bush 286 EV (±40 EV MoE)
Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters (explanation): Bush leads Kerry by 0.9%
Predicted median with undecideds: Kerry 280 EV, Bush 258 EV
Electoral prediction with undecideds and turnout: Kerry 323 EV, Bush 215 EV
Popular vote prediction with undecideds and turnout: Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Nader/other 2%
UPDATE: electoral-vote.com can be is mirrored at electoral-vote1.com, electoral-vote2.com, and on through 9.
Electoral College Meta-Analysis [election.princeton.edu]
OTHER PREDICTIONS:
•Political Junkie (B 264, K 274)
•Slate (B 269, K 269, we suspect he's just trying to freak our shit out. . . working!)
•University of Michigan's 2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions (two: B 268, K 270; B: 273.5, 264.5 . . . Yeah, we know. It's complicated.)