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Crip Dyke's avatar

For the record, in case people are interested:

>> In a floor speech, [Sen Baldwin] noted her office’s estimate that the anti-transgender care provision would affect around 6,000 to 7,000 military families... <<

based on information publicly available trans communities have been trying to figure out who is and isn't affected and to what degree. Baldwin's numbers here appear to be (again, based on what info we have, which is decidedly imperfect) a close estimate of the number of families with a child who has been diagnosed with gender dysphoria.

Having that diagnosis, however, does not mean being on puberty blockers or hormones. It does not mean that one is attempting to access surgery or even thinking that one will likely attempt to access it as an adult. The majority of people who socially transition go through little or no medical transition care.

The exact percentages of kids with the diagnosis that are also receiving medical transition care of the kind that would be banned under this NDAA rider are unknown and have broad error bars. The few people who are saying all 6k-7k kids are receiving medical care in the form of drugs or surgeries are not credible, but those attempting to back up a guess with evidence are still hitting numbers between 500 and 4,000.

I'm not saying any of this to make the case that it's acceptable to do this to families if it's only targeting and denying care to 500 kids. Even one kid would be too many. But many people are asking for hard numbers and I want everyone reading Wonkette to understand that for very good reasons including medical privacy it's not always possible to get exact numbers. We have estimates. There are large uncertainties. Most of the estimates you'll see reported by major outlets are reporting on all kids with a diagnosis. But because most kids see a therapist around the age of 13 or maybe 14, and since most doctors don't prescribe puberty blockers, and since the vast, vast majority of providers won't start a kid on estrogens, progesterone, spironolactone, or testosterone until at the very least the age of 16, it's exceedingly unlikely that even half of all those diagnosed are taking prescription drugs related to gender affirming care.

You want more info and more certainty than that? Guess what. You can't have it. Even kids get to have some privacy.

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Brando's avatar

Democrats seem to have reacted to their election loss like a soda company (yes, today's analogy) that just had a terrible last quarter competing with Coke--they assume their product must be crap because the voters (consumers) rejected it in favor of the alternative.

The problem is you're not going to beat Coke by making your soda taste more like Coke--consumers will just buy Coke, the real thing!

Alternatively, if the party (company) believes its product is actually good, then the issue is not the product itself but its ability to sell the product to the consumer. Maybe it is worth figuring out how to make our product more popular.

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