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How many times a day does Lindsey Graham think about that video of him saying "If we nominate Donald Trump, we will get destroyed, and we will deserve it"? One hundred? One thousand? Every time he checks the president's Twitter feed?

With the caveat that we're four months from Election Day and you RUN THROUGH THE TAPE, etc., Graham's words look more prophetic by the hour. This morning, the Cook Political Report moved Georgia to the "Toss Up Column" for the presidential race. Georgia!

As Cook's Amy Walter writes:

This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave. President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is trailing Biden by significant margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (8 points), Michigan (9 points), and Wisconsin (9 points). He's even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina.

Put it in our veins, Ma'am! The magic number is 270, and if Cook is right about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan going Democratic, that puts Biden at 279 without Arizona, Florida, or North Carolina.

If Donald Trump could stop being a crazy, racist loon, he might be able to turn it around. And if a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his ass a-hoppin'.


Ummmmm ....

Meanwhile, downballot, Trump is intent upon dragging his party into the ditch with him.

"If they don't embrace [me], they're going to lose, because, you know, I have a very hard base. I have the strongest base people have ever seen," he told Politico last month. (Try not to think about his rock hard base.)

And indeed, it looks like Trump is the greatest turnout machine ever, just not in the way he thinks. Thanks to negative partisanship, i.e., we hate that fucker's guts and are terrified of giving him another four years in power, Democratic candidates are sitting on a giant mountain of cash.

The New York Times reports that Sarah Gideon, Susan Collins's likely Democratic challenger, raised $8 million in the second quarter. That's $5 million more than Collins netted, with polls showing them neck and neck. No wonder Collins is noping out of the RNC's Superspreader Covidpalooza in Jacksonville next month.

While most Republican Senate candidates haven't released their Q2 fundraising totals yet — because they're nothing to brag about? — Cal Cunningham in North Carolina raked in $7.4 million, while Montana Governor Steve Bullock's hauled in $7.7 million.

And Lindsey Graham's craven embrace of Donald Trump has made his South Carolina Senate race surprisingly competitive. His challenger Jaime Harrison pulled in a whopping $13.9 million!

God bless!

So, let's just do a little back of the envelope math here, 'kay? If Biden wins the White House, then the blue team needs a net gain of three seats to take control of the senate. In Arizona, Martha McSally lost to a bisexual ex-Mormon in 2018, and now she's running against IRL astronaut Mark Kelly. Cory Gardner in Colorado is trailing John Hickenlooper by double digits. But in Alabama, Tommy Tuberville is probably not quite vile enough to lose to Democrat Doug Jones. So we need to pick up two seats out of North Carolina, Montana, South Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Kansas, and Georgia. We might not be able to send Mitch McConnell packing this time, but at least we can take his gavel!

And just to make this day even sweeter, guess who just found Biden leading by 10 whole points?

Only Donald Trump's second favorite pollster Rasmussen! Et tu, Rassus?

Womp, womp!

It ain't over, 'til it's over, of course. But it's looking like Lindsey Graham was exactly right.

What time is it? OPEN THREAD.

[Cook Political / NYT]

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Liz Dye

Liz Dye lives in Baltimore with her wonderful husband and a houseful of teenagers. When she isn't being mad about a thing on the internet, she's hiding in plain sight in the carpool line. She's the one wearing yoga pants glaring at her phone.

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