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It looks like Republicans are probably going to control the Senate next year despite howpeople don't like them, according to Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog and other respected nerds.


In 2012, Silver famously predicted the winner of every Senate race, which was an impressive achievement for him but so boring for us. It was like finding your Christmas/"holiday" presents early. You'll go through the motions of unwrapping your Regrets Her Abortion Barbie and Nature Despoiled II: The Warmening For Sega SexBox, but there's no climax. The moment is flaccid; that is to say, unsuited to penetrating intercourse, never mind entertainment.

No, for sheer bread-and-circuses fun, give us unskewed polls and Peggy Noonan's saw-a-Romney-sticker-on-a-Cadillac "vibrations" over Nate Silver's cold equations every time.

In that spirit, here's how Senate Democrats can defy the odds and beat off all comers, with votes.

ARKANSAS

Mark Pryor (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R); Cotton leads +5.5 (RCP)

Incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor trails challenger Cotton in recent polling, but there are questions about the polls' survey methods and sample size. For example: What? When? If so, how come? And ultimately, will this be enough to let Pryor sneak by? Yes.

ALASKA

Mark Begich (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R); Sullivan leads +4.4 (RCP)

Dan Sullivan and his parents' money give Republicans another lead in Alaska, but Alaska is basically not even attached to the real United States, did you know that? We'll be watching this story very, very closely.

COLORADO

Mark Udall (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R); Gardner leads +3.8 (RCP)

Much has been made of the fact that the letters in "Mark Udall" can be rearranged to spell "a dull mark", but that won't be enough to distract voters from the key issue of the one we made up for Cory Gardner: "red rag crony". Shameful...

LOUISIANA

Mary Landrieu (D) vs. Bill Cassidy (R); Cassidy leads +4.8 (RCP)

Another incumbent Democrat trails a Republican challenger in Louisiana, but then again, Louisiana has never elected a man named Bill Cassidy to represent them in the Senate. Mary Landrieu is on record as being firmly not a man named Bill Cassidy, but what about Bill Cassidy? The history here is on Landrieu's side.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. Scott Brown (R); Shaheen leads +2.6 (RCP)

This race is an outlier: the incumbent Democrat has a narrow lead. But challenger Scott Brown knows what it takes to win as a Republican in Massachusetts. But also too, he knows what it takes to lose as a Republican in Massachusetts. WILD CARD: New Hampshire is not Massachusetts, and neither is Jeanne Shaheen. Advantage, her.

NORTH CAROLINA

Kay Hagan (D) vs. Thom Tillis (R); Hagan leads +2.0 (RCP)

North Carolinians know Kay Hagan. They like Kay Hagan. Thom Tillis, well, who even knows? What's he stand for? Ebola? It's in the news, look it up. Thom -- "Thom" -- is that like the normal American name "Tom"? You just don't know. Kay Hagan, you could chug a beer with her, go bowling with her, do a quilt, whatever. She'll bring a casserole.

ON THE OTHER HAND, CLASSIC PUNDIT HEDGE

Maybe boring old Nate Silver is right and the Democrats are going to lose many of these races, and with them, control of the Senate. If that happens, look for Democrats to pin their hopes on Ruth Bader Ginsburg finally grasping that most elusive, tantalizing dream of eternal life, perhaps as a cyborg.

Follow Alex on Twitter, he'll make it worth your while.

[FiveThirtyEight / Townhall / FiveThirtyEight / Princeton Election Consortium / WSJ / RCP / RCP / RCP / RCP / RCP / RCP]

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It started with them damn hats. (Image: Wikimedia Commons)

A guest post by "Knitsy McPurlson," which we suspect is not a real name.

Yr Wonkette is not the only website run by brilliant peoples unafraid to poke people with sharp, pointy sticks. Ravelry.com – a website for knitters, crocheters, and other folks interested in textiles and fiber arts – is poking people with knitting needles, which are very sharp indeed.

This past weekend, Ravelry.com's founders showed the world how easy it is to de-platform white nationalists and racists when they banned all "support of Donald Trump and his administration" from their website, concluding they "cannot provide a space that is inclusive of all and also allow support for open white supremacy." Seems like people smart enough to decode a knitting pattern are also smart enough to decode Trump's not-so-hidden message of racism and white nationalism.

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One day, God willing, my grandchildren will click open their history textbooks and read about the Central American migrant internment camps. They'll learn about sick kids, locked in cages, kept hungry and dirty and cold for weeks on end, and they'll be horrified.

"Bubbie," they'll say, "how could this happen in America? How could there be toddlers sleeping on the ground without blankets, without soap or toothbrushes to clean themselves?"

"I don't know. I wish I had done more. I'm ashamed," I'll say. We will all have to answer for this atrocity. But some of us will have to answer more than others. Not just the archvillains like Stephen Miller and John Kelly, but the people who kept right on doing their jobs, even as those jobs morphed into defending concentration camps.

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