Welllll Mr. Fancy Baseball and Politics Man knows nothing about the Oscars, apparently! He thought that Taraji Henson would win Best Supporting Actress and Mickey Rourke would win Best Actor. Silver's calculations excluded several important factors, including: 1) Penelope Cruz is very hot and 2) Sean Penn starred in a feel-good Issues Movie that concerns an issue that many people in Hollywood care about. Nate Silver must be publicly shamed, his statistics license revoked, and his $700,000 book advance donated to a math academy of his choice. [New York Magazine,OSCAR.com]