NH Primary Predictions: The Blogosphere Speaks

People give pollster Zogby a hard time because, you know, he's wrong a lot. This morning, WP rounded up all the organizations who find his results kinda dodgy and had some reasons why. Silly little things, really, like mostly calling people before 5:30PM (on the plus side, you're giving the shut-ins a chance to pretend they matter). And a Kausfiles correspondent noted that Dean's sudden jump in the latest poll may have happened because the big Z "factored in Leaners to reflect how Undecideds might break." But, whatever; math is hard. Why think for yourself when the blogosphere can do it for you? Bloggers predict:

· Michael Novak: 1. Dean 2. Kerry. "A full week of Kerry just might have bored New Hampshire to death, dampened the romance, made heart and eyes restless." [Corner]

· Atrios? Incredibly fudgey! "It will either be close between Kerry and Dean or it won't. Clark or Edwards will be third. How's that for bold." [Eschaton]

· sees Kerry (32), Dean (28), Edwards (15), Clark (12), Lieberman (7). "It's either a blowout or a tight race. Obviously it can't be both." []

· Joe Carter at Evangelical Outpost says Kerry by 15 over neck and neck Clark and Edwards, Dean between 15 and 18 percent. "Why I think Clark comes in second. In a word? Independents." [evangelical outpost]

· The Agitator calles Kerry by five over Dean. Edwards, Clark and Lieberman finish in a pack 20 to 25 points behind. [TheAgitator]

· Daniel Drezner goes for 1. Kerry, 2. Dean, 3. Edwards, 4. Lieberman, 5. Clark. "[L]et's face it, the scream effect has worn off." []

· Professor Bainbridge: "Kerry beats Dean narrowly (4 points or fewer), followed by Edwards who just slips past Clark for third place." []

· Garcia Tagorda is very specific: "1. Kerry (32), 2. Dean (28), 3. Edwards (18), 4. Clark (14), 5. Lieberman (7), 6. Other (1)" [Priorities & Frivolities]

· Viking Pundit: KDELC (Easy! We like!) [Viking Pundit]

· Daily Kos goes with Kerry (30), Dean (29), Edwards (20), Clark (15), Lieberman (5). "In my happy world, Kerry and Dean's numbers are reversed." [DailyKos]

· Lean Left hedges "Kerry wins tomorrow, but I don't think by a whole lot" -- 5 percent at most. "Dean loses by a small enough margin to claim the mantle of the comeback kid." []

New Hampshire: Graveyard of Pollsters [WP]

Why Didn't Kerry Speak Out? [Slate]

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It's the night before the two-night Democratic primary debate extravaganza, and we're already tired. Turns out having 20 candidates spread across two nights when only six or eight of them matter is not the must-see TV we all thought it was going to be! But that's not to dissuade you from getting excited! We're excited! We're so excited! We're so ...



In case you need a reminder, here is how it's going to go down:

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A rational human being would have pleaded down a year ago and given up his congressional seat, since he could cash out and make a lot more money as a lobbyist anyway. But not Duncan Hunter! He made the federal government chase him down and document every last carton of cigarettes, round of tequila, and Uber ride of shame home from his many girlfriends' houses in a 60-count indictment filed last August. And still this dumb sumbitch refused to admit he was caught, even after his lovely wife (and co-conspirator) Margaret Hunter flipped on him this month -- which is what happens when you use your campaign credit card to carry on multiple affairs and you piss off the US Attorneys enough that they put every 7 a.m. Uber ride in your indictment.

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