NH Primary Predictions: The Blogosphere Speaks
People give pollster Zogby a hard time because, you know, he's wrong a lot. This morning, WP rounded up all the organizations who find his results kinda dodgy and had some reasons why. Silly little things, really, like mostly calling people before 5: 30PM (on the plus side, you're giving the shut-ins a chance to pretend they matter). And a Kausfiles correspondent noted that Dean's sudden jump in the latest poll may have happened because the big Z "factored in Leaners to reflect how Undecideds might break." But, whatever ; math is hard. Why think for yourself when the blogosphere can do it for you? Bloggers predict:
·Michael Novak: 1.Dean2.Kerry. "A full week ofKerryjust might have bored New Hampshire to death, dampened the romance, made heart and eyes restless." [ Corner ]
·Atrios? Incredibly fudgey! "It will either be close betweenKerryandDeanor it won't.ClarkorEdwardswill be third. How's that for bold." [ Eschaton ]
·ChrisIsHardcore.com seesKerry(32),Dean(28),Edwards(15),Clark(12),Lieberman(7). "It's either a blowout or a tight race. Obviously it can't be both." [ ChrisIsHardcore.com ]
·Joe Carter at Evangelical Outpost saysKerryby 15 over neck and neckClarkandEdwards,Deanbetween 15 and 18 percent. "Why I thinkClarkcomes in second. In a word? Independents." [ evangelical outpost ]
·The Agitator callesKerryby five overDean.Edwards, ClarkandLiebermanfinish in a pack 20 to 25 points behind. [ TheAgitator ]
·Daniel Drezner goes for 1.Kerry, 2.Dean, 3.Edwards, 4.Lieberman, 5.Clark. "[L]et's face it, the scream effect has worn off." [ DanielDrezner.com ]
·Professor Bainbridge: "KerrybeatsDeannarrowly (4 points or fewer), followed byEdwardswho just slips pastClarkfor third place." [ ProfessorBainbridge.com ]
·Garcia Tagorda is very specific: "1.Kerry(32), 2.Dean(28), 3.Edwards(18), 4.Clark(14), 5.Lieberman(7), 6.Other(1)" [ Priorities & Frivolities ]
·Viking Pundit: KDELC (Easy! We like!) [ Viking Pundit ]
·Daily Kos goes withKerry(30),Dean(29),Edwards(20),Clark(15),Lieberman(5). "In my happy world,KerryandDean'snumbers are reversed." [ DailyKos ]
·Lean Left hedges "Kerrywins tomorrow, but I don't think by a whole lot" -- 5 percent at most. "Deanloses by a small enough margin to claim the mantle of the comeback kid." [ LeanLeft.com ]
New Hampshire: Graveyard of Pollsters [WP]
Why Didn't Kerry Speak Out? [Slate]