Campaigning Democrats

NH Primary Predictions: The Blogosphere Speaks

January 26, 2004 11:24 PM

People give pollster Zogby a hard time because, you know, he's wrong a lot. This morning, WP rounded up all the organizations who find his results kinda dodgy and had some reasons why. Silly little things, really, like mostly calling people before 5:30PM (on the plus side, you're giving the shut-ins a chance to pretend they matter). And a Kausfiles correspondent noted that Dean's sudden jump in the latest poll may have happened because the big Z "factored in Leaners to reflect how Undecideds might break." But, whatever; math is hard. Why think for yourself when the blogosphere can do it for you? Bloggers predict:

· Michael Novak: 1. Dean 2. Kerry. "A full week of Kerry just might have bored New Hampshire to death, dampened the romance, made heart and eyes restless." [Corner]

· Atrios? Incredibly fudgey! "It will either be close between Kerry and Dean or it won't. Clark or Edwards will be third. How's that for bold." [Eschaton]

· ChrisIsHardcore.com sees Kerry (32), Dean (28), Edwards (15), Clark (12), Lieberman (7). "It's either a blowout or a tight race. Obviously it can't be both." [ChrisIsHardcore.com]

· Joe Carter at Evangelical Outpost says Kerry by 15 over neck and neck Clark and Edwards, Dean between 15 and 18 percent. "Why I think Clark comes in second. In a word? Independents." [evangelical outpost]

· The Agitator calles Kerry by five over Dean. Edwards, Clark and Lieberman finish in a pack 20 to 25 points behind. [TheAgitator]

· Daniel Drezner goes for 1. Kerry, 2. Dean, 3. Edwards, 4. Lieberman, 5. Clark. "[L]et's face it, the scream effect has worn off." [DanielDrezner.com]

· Professor Bainbridge: "Kerry beats Dean narrowly (4 points or fewer), followed by Edwards who just slips past Clark for third place." [ProfessorBainbridge.com]

· Garcia Tagorda is very specific: "1. Kerry (32), 2. Dean (28), 3. Edwards (18), 4. Clark (14), 5. Lieberman (7), 6. Other (1)" [Priorities & Frivolities]

· Viking Pundit: KDELC (Easy! We like!) [Viking Pundit]

· Daily Kos goes with Kerry (30), Dean (29), Edwards (20), Clark (15), Lieberman (5). "In my happy world, Kerry and Dean's numbers are reversed." [DailyKos]

· Lean Left hedges "Kerry wins tomorrow, but I don't think by a whole lot" -- 5 percent at most. "Dean loses by a small enough margin to claim the mantle of the comeback kid." [LeanLeft.com]

New Hampshire: Graveyard of Pollsters [WP]

Why Didn't Kerry Speak Out? [Slate]

wonkette

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