Church Of Latter-Day Saints Voters Biden-Curious

Blutah isn't happening but let's talk about AZ, NC, FL, and Texas!

Polls this summer show Church of Latter-Day Saints voters swinging about 15 points to the left this year, because most Mormons prefer their misogyny subtle and understated. (The LDS vote normally splits 80 percent R/20 percent D.) That's not enough to make Blutah happen. But it can make a profound difference in swing states with large Mormon communities: Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, and yes, Texas.

The GOP has already caught on to how the LDS vote has put Arizona in play. This helps explain Vice President Mike Pence and Don Jr.'s multiple frantic visits to the state. The thing you have to understand about the LDS vote, though, is they're not just voters. They run a lot of the GOP's canvassing and GOTV efforts. This scenario is repeating around the country. Enough Mormons have defected to gut the GOP's ground game around the country (27: 45 in the linked podcast).

And again, Arizona's not the only state with enough Mormons for a 15-point leftward swing alone to make a dent. Let's review some back-of-the-envelope numbers!

State

Gains in Dem margin with 15-point LDS shift to Biden

Arizona

75,000

North Carolina

30,000

Michigan

20,000

Ohio

25,000

Wisconsin

12,000

Pennsylvania

25,000

Georgia

30,000

Florida

60,000

Texas

90,000

The best part is the GOP seems to have no idea this is happening. They've woken up to it in Arizona, but like everyone else, they seem to think of Mormons as a strictly intermountain west phenomenon. In reality, today's Mormons are Starbucksian in their ubiquity. It's a great object lesson in what happens when you're too dependable as a voting bloc: You run their GOTV campaigns for them and they forget you even exist.

The overall story of political change in the Sunbelt will always be that of Latinx, Black, and (especially in Arizona) Native voters. The Mormon bump isn't likely to last. But it could be a nice assist while it does.

*Disclosure: my spouse runs Latter-Day Saints for Biden-Harris. I am what you might consider "a source close to the campaign."

••Why am I writing this: I just wanna get some info out there in case we get WEIRD NUMBERS back from Florida, Texas, and other states that folks forget have lots Mormons in them.

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