3234 Comments

Thanks Doc. This post is almost as robust as the coffee I'm drinking.

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OK, but here's the thing: the "labor shortage" isn't real. It's almost completely manufactured. Most of the statistics about demand for labor are based on open job listings, but the problem is those listings, over the last five years or so, have become almost entirely fake.

Companies post lots of job openings for positions they have no intention of hiring for two reasons: to juice the company's stock/VC investment by making it look like they're growing fast, and to suppress their internal labor pool ("don't ask for a raise/don't complain about all the unpaid overtime, because we're about to hire a bunch of people and you might get replaced").

Which leads me to wonder just how much of the supposed improved labor market is even real. I know from my own experience, and from several friends, all of whom have been fruitlessly searching for jobs for years, that the situation hasn't gotten any better.

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The "labor shortage" has been going on since the Baby Boomer generation began retiring. There ARE less people available to work. THAT is a 100% proven true fact. But you are correct, the demand for labor is solely based on open job listings. There are millions of them fewer but somehow, someway, businesses have adapted to this situation and can still produce income and Profits. Corporate Profits and Executive Compensation are multitudes higher today than even 10-20 years ago. Unlike jobs, Profits and Exec Comp NEVER go down. It's easier to lay off workers to maintain Profits and Comp.

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Part of the problem is that the unemployment rate only counts people actively receiving unemployment insurance (last I heard, at least), which means people who are actively looking for work and receiving unemployment insurance (which usually only lasts six months). So all the millions of people who've dropped out of the labor market after giving up searching aren't counted.

Here's the US BOL chart for labor-force participation: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm

As you can see, it's lower now than during the 2007-2008 economic meltdown, and only just now reaching the nadir prior to Covid (ie, 62.5%). More useful is the historical trendlines on this article, on Page 23: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/05/art2full.pdf. There, you can see the rate continuing to decline until leveling off at about 61% by 2030.

So if anything, the job market is going to get *worse* over the next decade, not better.

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Those are excellent links! And you're 100% correct, the unemployment rate is only reflective of active job seekers. Those who run out of weeks collecting or have joined the so-called "gig economy" cannot be accurately known. Tons of people left the official job market to create their own companies, work for themselves or friends or families and are paid in cash. And some % those who are "reported" also take these "under the table" jobs. I think that's how come the reported jobs might be lower but people can still continue purchasing after economic stimulus has run out. Yet people are spending at record levels. Of course, sooner or later, the IRS gets wise to this too so I don't necessarily believe over-spending beyond incomes is a wise plan. And, of course, they'll look for the higher spenders who are spending well in excess of their reported incomes.

I agree about the labor force participation rate too. But those who Report on the job market never seem to want to show Americans that while our rate of labor declines, we need the immigrants to support/sustain the economy.

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All of that is true, and extremely important.

However, I read an article about a year ago that was about the US Department of Labor's analysis of the effects of COVID. As usual, it was very convoluted and kind of "hid the ball" in the later paragraphs of the story.

Reading it front to back and back to front, it seemed that the DOL was saying:

- Over 7 million more people than usual took early Social Security during COVID.

- over 1 million people died; maybe a quarter to a third of them had jobs.

- Immigration declined sharply.

- an unknown number of people in two-income households realized that they were actually net better off with only the one income, if they could eliminate the costs of having that second income; childcare, transportation, associated costs were so high they were eating up that second paycheck.

- And then, the kicker, maybe 10 million people can't work full-time or at all due to Long COVID; but we haven't counted them anywhere.

All told, DOL found between 16-24 million people had left the workforce over COVID and weren't replaced.

That'll bounce back, but it leaves a mark.

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I'm about to test the job market for the first time in over a decade.

It's going to be interesting, to say the least.

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Jan 26Liked by Crip Dyke

I wish you good luck! Show confidence in your abilities. References help.

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Jan 26·edited Jan 26Liked by Crip Dyke

Getting ready to depart on a pretty long flight (Paris to Boston), but I've got a champagne & legroom courtesy of work. Because the hell I could afford business class on my own...

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Thanks, work!

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Enjoy! And take advantage of *all* the freebies!

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You better believe it!

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Tabs up

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One of PAB's running complaints about the historic unfairness of the Carroll damages trial is "I wasn’t at the trial" that found responsibility.

...

Well, whose fault is that, Zippy?

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Didn't he duck out of that because he had something else to do?

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Oh noes. A powerful body did something to him which he was powerless to stop. Shame.

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His lawyer's, Joey Tacopenis (h/t Jeff Tiedrich), who knew that letting him hang around and possibly get on the stand would just make it *worse*, not better.

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Someone else's. Obviously. Because it's always someone else's fault.

He wasn't kidding when he said he takes no responsibility at all.

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With Temps in the mid to high 30°s with rain all week , officials are asking folks to remove their ice fishing shacks from area lakes asap.

We're having a glorious January thaw with humidity kicking dry air out.

That is all.

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Time to send some pickup trucks and snowmobiles as an offering to Neptune! ;)

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I have a vehicle that id like to push in after the ABS went out yesterday leaving me a a two mile hike back home.

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Is it insured? (Asking for a fiend.)

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yeah. Had it towed to mechanic. Except tow guy couldn't get it for two hours . So the hike was necessary. Could have driven it home in reverse the last 3 miles. Never saw a car drive by to bum a ride

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Same here ... fog and drizzle and 50ºF

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Lots of fog here too . Better than ice...

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ARRRGGGG!! I gotta work tomorrow and I don't even want to work today. Being an adult suuuuccckkkkssss!!!

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IK,R?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB9qb5S8Xlg

"I'm An Adult Now" -- The Pursuit of Happiness

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I can't share this week's furry art, as one's Adult-rated and the other's Mature-rated. Sorry.

:-(

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Manure-related?

Oh. Nevermind.

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At least tell us what species!

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(grins)

The Adult-rated involves two canines (yellow Lab and Belgian Malinois) having a bit of tribadism; the Mature-rated drawing depicts a ewe in a scanty maid's uniform saying, "I know exactly how to make my wolf howl!"

Her BF's a wolf. Gotta love those predator-prey relationships.

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Have you ever watched the anime "Beastars"?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgo9dJB_icw

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I confess that I started to watch it, but couldn't get past the first episode. Haru being bullied got under my skin.

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I only watched the first season, and yeah, there are definitely uncomfortable bits. I did like how acknowledged the tensions inherent in a society made up of predators and their ancestral prey.

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MSNBC revealed a couple interesting little tidbits:

1. We dropped a bit of a word on Iran before the IS attacked them. I call that sporting behavior.

2. We've set up a joint task force with China to restrict the flow of precursor chemicals for the production of fentanyl.

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Didn't stop Iran from blaming Israel and the US. Revealing that they knew better, did nothing, and then lied about it - and doing the reveal while looking like the good guy - was a pretty smooth move by Biden.

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Did not sleep well. Going back to sleep/nap through TABS this AM.

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I'm still 3 hours from even trying to fall asleep. It sucks.

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(gestures hypnotically) SLEEP!

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Are you on call?

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😵‍💫

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Now, the national anthem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV9_tAtrJMg

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Well, that's a wakey-wakey tune. Very Commonwealthy.

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Still better than ours. (I think I could copy/paste that every morning)

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Hee!

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I'm gonna tell y'all about someone who I will call Internet Content Creator.

First I'll tell you the why.

In 2022, right after the Dobbs decision, a poster here spent several days spinning out a tall tale of their very awesome white saviorhood. A tale I was in a unique position to know was 117% bullshit because it was about what my kid does for a living, and the people who do this thing are a relatively small, highly professional, tight knit, cooperative nationwide community. AND IT DOESN'T HAPPEN THE WAY EVERYBODY DREAMS IT DOES. Also, they don't talk about the people they help, especially using the demeaning language she used.

I didn't challenge them very much, if at all, because so many people were eating the story up, and I would have been resented for making drama against such a great person. So that was that - and perpetuating white savior fantasies does actual harm, so I really held a probably unhealthy grudge.

Full disclosure, I strongly disliked this person well before that particularly egregious story, because spinning yarns is their habit, and those yarns always seemed like humble brags, virtue signaling, and/or clout chasing. That kind of thing is annoying, but only if you let it be and it didn't seem harmful, so it was whatever.

Then I started hearing stories about various men who, based on emails and texts she exchanged with them, thought they were in special relationships with her. Also not my business. Then I saw her ask yet another man whose name hasn't been mentioned, to email her, and she posted her email address.

I'm the kind of petty, messy bitch who takes that sort of info and runs with it, if you've made me mad enough, so that's the starting point of the how.

Since her email address was *first middle last name at domain dot com* she made it pretty easy for me. I know this is petty nonsense, I know. But I'm still holding a grudge about the times she's made harmful posts and the times she's been unnecessarily cruel to posters here who did nothing wrong. I know sometimes I'm also the asshole, but I genuinely don't do it for entertainment.

Anyhoo, I checked all the nonprofits in her county that do the sort of work she claimed to do, and saw that she wasn't on the staff or board of any of them. I did learn that she was awarded volunteer of the year in recent history. The write-up and interview featured the one picture of her face that I've seen her share here. (At that time, she said she didn't share it but she'd been hacked and her hacker posted it but she kinda liked it so she left it for a while)

I've learned that, as she's said, she has moved around a lot, but for several years she has lived in her parents' perfectly lovely middle class home. She lives there with at least her mother. She talked about her father's final illness and death quite a while ago, but I haven't been able to find an obituary for him. That might not mean anything, but publicly available data indicates that he still lives there as well.

I spoke to one person who mailed her a gift or two, they said the address I found is the same address she gave them and she did sign receipts that she received the packages they sent.

Other details are less data based. The day she supposedly left for Bali, she said she flew to NY to catch a connecting flight, but there were four flights to Bali from an airport within a hour drive from her home that day they all had open seats. I checked because I'm petty.

The police don't "sit on" your house because someone on the internet said the name of your local high school.

There are three 'E's in Berkeley, and anyone who went there knows it.

Nurses don't admit patients and don't tell doctors to admit patients, especially not on the word of the random person who accompanied them to the ER. I'm stopping now because I have to go and I don't want to beleaguer the point.

Sorry this took so long. Now it's time for me to put on a bra and go mine diapers. (We're cutting back on production soon, because it's almost time for toilet teaching) I'll be in and out throughout the morning for you to yell at.

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"those yarns always seemed like humble brags, virtue signaling, and/or clout chasing"

Which is why I always used to skip past them.

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Catching up on this because I've been absent here more than I'd like.

I want to say I didn't see it. I want to say I didn't know, or the cracks weren't there.

But they were. They *always* were. but how do you call someone out like that? So I kept on my own, to myself and hoped that this day wouldn't come. Yet here we are.

I'd hoped better of it ,but i know it's for the best that it's done as it had been. Thanks for doing this, even if it was unpleasant, Granny.

Glad you're still here even though I've not been as present, you did the hard work few would have.

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The Berkeley thing made me think of when Jess caught Billie lying in the National Treasure tv series with further and farther. Bravo!

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Very interesting, Granny. Noted that you mentioned my run in with her where I was accused of doxxing based on identifying the general pretty large neighborhood she indicated she lived in. Either I was too close to attempt to catfish, or she (accurately) perceived I was an empty well to attempt to derive loot from.

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I'm glad you saw this. She made you feel so bad and it was all bullshit.

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Thanks for posting this, Granny S. You have an outstanding bullshit detector, and I appreciate you bringing the receipts.

I’m not here all the time, but I’m a retired civil litigator, so I have enough time on my hands to read sufficient comments from this person that didn’t pass the smell test. I’ve felt like something was “off” for years, but didn’t say anything other than mild pushback a few times. And even though I chose mostly not to interact with this person directly, my brain is hard-wired to keep track of all the details that didn’t seem credible, in case I need to use them for cross-examination later.

I wish I’d spoken up sooner, before other posters were actually hurt. But I’m glad that you and others are speaking up now.

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That’s the thing. I tried to stay clear of that person for years, too, because of the gross confabulation as well as the often harsh responses to anyone who pushed back. I honestly thought everyone was a fan except cranky old antisocial me. I didn’t speak up I guess because since I didn’t interact with her, I had no standing to complain about anything. I’m just now getting an idea of the damage. I think I won’t speak of this person again.

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Same here, for everything you've said.

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Christ, why do people insist on doing this?

Every online community I've been part of for the last 20 years has suffered from at least one regular poster who uses a manufactured life story to manipulate others. One guy manufactured a story about his kid dying that generated a lot of sympathy and support in the community until we found out he was entirely full of shit. I guess it's no different than being a pathological liar in person, it's just harder to catch someone in an online community.

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Thank you. Sincerely.

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This is all extremely disturbing. I appreciate the information. It's concerning that this person *does* appear to have done significant volunteering with the mentally unwell, because this person is herself pretty clearly mentally unwell and acting it out rather than managing it, and that puts her in a position to do a lot of harm.

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I will tell you what I didn't say the other day. While I was not romantically harmed by her, I was harmed and driven off the old Disqus site for quite a while as a result. It took some months to realize she had to have been full of shit to say to me the things she did if she was, indeed, in the line of work she claimed to be. When I made a new account and came back to Wonkette it seemed people still worshipped at her feet and I began to doubt my assessment, again. But your post from the other day, Fukui's post from earlier in this thread, and this post right here has been very helpful in clearing up that "it wasn't me who was fucked up." So, thank you. I appreciate the receipts.

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I'm sorry to learn that you went through this.

You are a kind, caring person and don't deserve to be treated this way.

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This is terrifying. Having seen another of your posts where you elaborate a bit more, this person tried to do real emotional and psychological damage to you. I'm very sorry to hear that you experienced this and I'm glad you came back.

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This makes me feel better about posting this.

I know she's driven others away, and I've been forwarded one email in which she tried to convince someone to quit. Separating you from community kept you from outing her.

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Omg Granny that story about the ER is when I knew she was 100% fake, not just annoying. You put it so clearly into words. I had no idea about the catfishing, but now her paranoia makes sense.

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Hm. Imagine employing classic abuser tactics like isolation as well as all the rest.

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I wonder what she's going to do for her fix now?

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Find another internet community to crash?

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She probably has more than just this place. Narcs always have a backup supply.

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author

Expect a new non-commenter named "CCI" to show up.

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Jan 27Liked by ziggywiggy

LOL

I had the same thought. She'll be back with a new name, if not already.

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OH, crap.

Last night, I was tucked up in bed all warm and cozy while reading the thread and dozed off for a while. Woke up after having weird dreams that they came back and were posting all over the place. Blech.

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But kind of cool that this place is so important to us that we are posting in our dreams. And reading other posts.

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Yeah. I used to think it was kind of strange, and I know my daughter does (she thinks I should "get out" more) but Wonkette just...is what it is to us all. We're obviously willing to keep it as safe a place as we can, and I think that's just wonderful.

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This made me laugh. This is as good as description of this place as I’ve ever read. It is what it is to us all.

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Well since you put it that way, I think maybe I'm better off not knowing what's going on.

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We are, man. I've got way more than enough to handle myself.

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I think it was a necessary thing, though. Like lancing a boil.

Y'all didn't have to be there for it, though. :)

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Yeah, all the truth here, Shanan.

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I'm still pissed about the Bali pictures. I mean, she was too lazy to even bother to go filch some stock resort photos.

And she also blocked me when I made fun of her for posting about how, like, five different guys in one night supposedly tried to hit on her. But she called me misogynistic about it first.

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Gotta give her credit, she knew it was a trap. But her excuse was terrible.

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That's the thing about chronic liars: they think everyone else is stupid. So it's really all pretty insulting.

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Alternate theory: they start believing their own lies, and are surprised when people start knocking down their houses of cards.

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Yes, or both, and possibly some other things as well.

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She was definitely a real pip.

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Lol. I remember you asking for Bali pictures. She did post one photo of the resort she was "staying at", after saying she couldn't post any pictures because then her crazy stalker ex would know where she was.

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It's cool how he went away as soon as she had a new storyline.

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I loved the way she'd float a new storyline and see if it got engagement before committing to it. Thus, the Amazon delivery guy who was probably supposed to be a new stalker, but then just disappeared. The poop on the shrubbery was... an interesting choice.

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Everyone is imaginary and disposable to people like that.

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Oh, huh! I must have either missed or forgotten that with my brain-LOLs about the whole stupid thing of breaking up her BFFs relationship. And I thought the excuse for not posting pictures was that she couldn't show anyone else's faces.

Ugh, what a fiasco. I really hope it's over.

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I had her blocked from years back because she told me I needed to take meds because I was hysterical about threats to gay rights.

It was a 1-2 punch of bullshit: First, we don't say "take your meds" in a community this sensitive to people with mental health needs, and second, because we don't minimize threats to the rights of the LGBT community.

And on top of that, she tried to start drama about someone kept on the birthday list to remind us all that YOU DON'T MINIMIZE THREATS TO THE LGBT COMMUNITY HERE.

I hope she gets the help she needs which is a set of replacement skills for gaining the love she needs. Perhaps post a Birthday list or calendar that people will talk about. Maybe some cute Animal gifts.

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Anytime you and a few others here have someone blocked, my hackles go up and I watch extra close. Y'all have good instincts.

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You are a fucking badass!!

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Remember the time she couldn't get her prescription filled then when she finally did the pharmacist said "you take lithium? You don't seem weird at all?!" No pharmacist, or other health care professional thinks bipolar people look any kind of way.

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Oddly enough, when she said she was "bi" I assumed she meant bipolar. It was only later that I realized she meant bisexual.

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Yeah, LOL, I would love if my Pharmacist said, "You don't look like YOU need valtrex!" LOL

God bless her heart, go post some cute animals if you need upvotes! LOL

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Upfist for Valtrex.

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Ugh ugh ugh. Sounds like you did the work of Da Lord, Gran. Not petty, imho.

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Mostly petty, but not entirely.

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Thanks, Granny...you made me feel less stupid....

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If I was one of the people that made you feel stupid, I am so sorry. I didn't realize that "the call was coming from inside the house".

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I don't recall you doing anything.

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Good. Because when we were on the Wonk zoom, my tone could have been dismissive of your participation in the Wonk Movie. You were looking for free streaming of the movie for that week.

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(((((((((((((((G7,our friend))))))))))))))

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I absolutely meant to. I would never have posted it if she hadn't attacked you the other day. Do you know she posted about you?

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Yeah, that was messed up.

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You are a damned fine person. Thank you for all you said.

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Someone shared with me,.,..

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You're NOT stupid!!

If it'll make you feel any better, one day I'll tell you the story of MY Wonkette adventure that ended in me having to file a restraining order! :D

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Was a character in your story refer to someone whose name is like "pork belly okay"? I'd be interested in hearing your saga.

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The fuck! You good trouble, girl. xox

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Yeah, red flags were waving all over that hot mess. I did the New York thing, and just kept walking.

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Even before I figured out she was a lying liar who lies, she was supremely irritating with her kitteh dialogues. I usually had her blocked on disqus. The Bali episode was the last straw.

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I used to skip over her comments because of those dialogues. I am glad someone else felt that way.

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Am I the only one who remembers that there were two instances of her going on honeymoon with her male best friend who called off his wedding at the last minute after declaring his live for her? They weren't even that far apart in time.

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Was it the surprise trip to Italy because really needed to treat herself?

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Wait, there were TWO of them?

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I remember two, but I'm old, so. I think you and I talked about it at the time.

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I might have blurred them all together, though. That was back when I did a whole lot of drinking. Which I'm not doing now.

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You weren't in a great place then, no, and you have removed more than one stressor from your life since.

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I am going to keep my mouth shut about the drama but DAMN, those are ALL some bridges I am glad I burned.

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What now? Don't make me scroll this browser back, missy!

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Just read what I can guess is a suggestion of much more extreme ick. I'm icked out.

No more curiosity for me, thanks.

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This looks like the beginning, but ain't scrolling back any more ...

https://www.wonkette.com/p/even-the-new-york-times-all-like/comment/48133738

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See Granny Sprinkle's comment, just above.

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This IS BANANAS! This is why I am glad I burned those bridges, that is some enabling, codependent bullshit.

When someone tells you who they are, fucking believe them, don't enable them.

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I'm stay detached from all of this kind of stuff. I kept my engagement to a minimum and I've learned probably in the same way you have to keep away from the emotional vampires.

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Be prepared to waste an hour or so...

Scroll down a few hours...

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I must say - I had my suspicions - I just sort of ignored the person.

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I see I missed a big thing last night real time. Pathology on the interwebs, SHOCKING!

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Jan 26·edited Jan 26

I hate missing stuff (as an audience! no wish to partake in avoidable dramaz)! It's always a big mystery after, LOL.

EDIT: as is often the case, boy do i regret my curiosity. Blllrrghh. I have got PLENTY and TOO MUCH drama in my own life, thanks, no thanks.

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I was right for once: don't fuck around with crazy.

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See, I never learn that lesson. I'm always attracted to crazy or it's attracted to me. I'm like a chaos attractor.

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LOL, waves in always-a-target-by-psychosis-in-action, whether in work mode as psych professional in past, or just walking peacefully down the street. All my life.

I decided I put off some pheromone that is at fault.

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Husky grooming is MURDER, according to Husky. lulz https://youtu.be/fOS49zPWuf8

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Jan 26·edited Jan 26

She recently had a deeply mellow, sweet Newfie, my breed, and I always adore them; but those Huskies are always the crowd favorites.

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founding

lol. Silly Fredo.

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Jan 26·edited Jan 26

I love their vocalizations. I adopted a 6.5 yr old husky, who has never had an ‘accident’ in the house. She gives me some form of ‘woo, ahooo, wooo…’(not howling) when she needs to go potty. She even nudges me awake at 3am, if needed.

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founding
Jan 26·edited Jan 26

They are very smart.

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This lady always has the *best* commentary on her vids. Hilarious delivery.

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