Make no mistake, as Governor you set your own agenda. As Senator you are a member of a larger group that sets the agenda FOR YOU. In that case Hogan is a SON OF A B*TCH waiting to happen.
Martha Coakley was a lousy candidate but learn from MA’s complacency and that big plate of nothing that was Scott Brown. Never take anything for granted blue states!
As a Marylander, I want to point out that our state doesn’t get polled often, so legitimate polling firms don’t have much data to accurately weight their samples to get more accurate results. (Weighting samples is a legitimate technique, necessary really, since polling firms know that they can’t get truly random samples of the overall voting population.)
Adding to that, I don’t remember the exact numbers, but polls prior to the primary election had Alsobrooks behind her Dem opponent by 2 points, but she ended up winning by 10. So polling may be missing a fairly large wellspring of Alsobrooks voters.
Hogan is well known around the state, while Alsobrooks is a new name to most of us—I hadn’t heard of her prior to gathering info and voting for her in the primary. (Her primary opponent would have been good too, and certainly better than Hogan.) So Hogan is pretty much near if not at his peak, while Alsobrooks can only increase her voter recognition and hopefully actual vote numbers.
So my point is that a tied poll is nowhere near as bad as it might seem, but even so, anyone financially capable of helping her campaign and anyone willing to help out her campaign by canvassing, postcarding, etc. are all more than welcome to, and it would be a potent impact for shoring up a Dem Senate.
Finally: In Maryland, a republican *statewide* candidate has not won in a presidential election year since 1990, if memory serves. (The reason we keep getting republican governors is because gubernatorial elections here occur in off-years, with their usual lower turnout.) My semi-educated guess as a watcher of polling and a Marylander is that Alsobrooks will win this handily.
Didn't Bolton say he was running for POTUS for, like, 30 seconds last year? And now not only does he have a PAC, it has a million bucks to throw at this numpty Hogan.
Also MDers can remember he was warned about the boats too big to NOT destroy the Baltimore Bridge WAY before another too big boat destroyed the bridge and the next governor, Wes Moore, had to rebuild it
Glenn Youngkin pulled the same crap in Virginia in 2021. He made states inferring he was not a Trump Republican but not laying out any differences in policies with Trump. He constantly evaded questions on ties to Trump despite his campaign following every plan Trump mentioned. But he kept repeating "I'm not Trump. I'm independent and will do what Virginia needs to have done." And voters fell for it, aided by the popular idea the current incumbent Democrat supported post birth abortions. Then once he was elected moved in lock step with the MAGA cult. Which any sensible person knew he would do. He was another tech millionaire who think because they can make a lot of money every idea they have is great.
I’m thinking it’s like how Democratic governors in red states do if they run for Senate. Typically there is buzz, and a courtship with the voters that puts them tied, give or take a few percent. But like Gov Phil Bredesen in Tennessee in 2018, the ‘wingers come home and Bredesen lost to Marsha Blackburn by 10% anyway (and Phil had a REAL Taylor Swift endorsement!).
This is probably this "reasonable Republican" hogwash that gives people an *excuse* to vote for Hogan. I believe he might've also sent National Guard troops to help on January 6? Basically the same kind of thing where if you manage to do one or two things right as a Republican, that's good enough to get the nod, while a Democrat needs to move heaven and earth.
Also why I don't believe polls when they give us good numbers. We should just vote anyway and se what happens.
Name calling is not the way to get Maryland Democrats to against Larry Hogan, who deserves respect for standing up to Trump. In fact it will have the opposite. I stopped reading (and I'm already on your side.) Have some respect for the reader. Rationally point out his absurd statement that Harris and Alsobrooks are far left and such facts as: 1) He opposed a $15 minimum wage.
2) He said no to common-sense gun laws like background checks.
3) He vetoed a bill that would have made it easier for women to access reproductive care in Maryland.
Mmm. She has a point. If you bury the lead, you lose the persuadable. Then again, given this audience....nah, doesn't work, the first duty is to know the audience. And the second is to know that you can't know the audience, or be responsible for what they take away from a comment. Confirmation bias always wins.
I may be dense, but I'm not even sure what you are saying. I was annoyed that instead of reading a rational discussion, I got turned off right away by a nasty comment. Hogan did have a few virtues, which should be recognized, and I think slams like that will increase support for Hogan not weaken it. Also, I walk away with a poorer opinion of the whole site.
To call someone a "bag of old coleslaw" perhaps is not the worst insult in the world, but it rubbed me wrong. And I doubt it's going to shift any votes from him! If you were a Marylander you would understand why Hogan gets respect. Lead with the important thing--which is that he is a Republican through and through, and must be defeated.
Yes, and that's an important point. Maryland is seat 49 0f the 50 we need in the Senate. It's an incredibly important race- why aren't there dozens of polls like Ohio and Pennsylvania? I think it's because the internal polling shows that it is a lost cause for Hogan and has been all along. Can you think of any other explanation?
The only polls Hogan led were before the primary. They were all Hogan versus "unknown candidate." The instant the primary occurred and his opponent had a name, there was a 30 point flip.
I'm sure you know Fabrizio well, he's an actual Trump campaign advisor and pollster. When the best Fabrizio can do is a tie, they're losing badly.
RCP also pulled a fast one by showing Alsobrook as the opponent in those early polls, she was not.
It's all good news!
Now help us win Montana for Tester, that's gonna be the tough climb.
Make no mistake, as Governor you set your own agenda. As Senator you are a member of a larger group that sets the agenda FOR YOU. In that case Hogan is a SON OF A B*TCH waiting to happen.
Ta, Marcie. Yes, yes, yes, take NOTHING for granted. We need every vote, everywhere.
Martha Coakley was a lousy candidate but learn from MA’s complacency and that big plate of nothing that was Scott Brown. Never take anything for granted blue states!
When you’ve lost St. Mary’s County, you might as well turn in your klan robes. That there’s confederate country.
Are we talking about the same Larry Hogan who went hat in hand to DC for money to pay to fix the port after a ship ran into a bridge? https://jacobin.com/2024/04/key-bridge-collapse-larry-hogan-mega-ships#
As a Marylander, I want to point out that our state doesn’t get polled often, so legitimate polling firms don’t have much data to accurately weight their samples to get more accurate results. (Weighting samples is a legitimate technique, necessary really, since polling firms know that they can’t get truly random samples of the overall voting population.)
Adding to that, I don’t remember the exact numbers, but polls prior to the primary election had Alsobrooks behind her Dem opponent by 2 points, but she ended up winning by 10. So polling may be missing a fairly large wellspring of Alsobrooks voters.
Hogan is well known around the state, while Alsobrooks is a new name to most of us—I hadn’t heard of her prior to gathering info and voting for her in the primary. (Her primary opponent would have been good too, and certainly better than Hogan.) So Hogan is pretty much near if not at his peak, while Alsobrooks can only increase her voter recognition and hopefully actual vote numbers.
So my point is that a tied poll is nowhere near as bad as it might seem, but even so, anyone financially capable of helping her campaign and anyone willing to help out her campaign by canvassing, postcarding, etc. are all more than welcome to, and it would be a potent impact for shoring up a Dem Senate.
Finally: In Maryland, a republican *statewide* candidate has not won in a presidential election year since 1990, if memory serves. (The reason we keep getting republican governors is because gubernatorial elections here occur in off-years, with their usual lower turnout.) My semi-educated guess as a watcher of polling and a Marylander is that Alsobrooks will win this handily.
All hands on deck!
reminds me of Rauner in Illinois and I hate it.
ugh!
𝘈𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘑𝘰𝘩𝘯 𝘉𝘰𝘭𝘵𝘰𝘯’𝘴 𝘗𝘈𝘊 (𝘺𝘦𝘴, 𝘑𝘰𝘩𝘯 𝘉𝘰𝘭𝘵𝘰𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘢 𝘗𝘈𝘊!)
Didn't Bolton say he was running for POTUS for, like, 30 seconds last year? And now not only does he have a PAC, it has a million bucks to throw at this numpty Hogan.
Sheesh. Politics really IS a grift.
It wasn't always like this. Citizens United helped make this mess.
Speaking of things that need to be overturned …
Indeed, indeed
Praising the Federalist Society gang is cause enough to vote Hogan off the island, forever.
Also MDers can remember he was warned about the boats too big to NOT destroy the Baltimore Bridge WAY before another too big boat destroyed the bridge and the next governor, Wes Moore, had to rebuild it
Jacobin had the first story, but there are others
Crime is down in pg county. What are you smoking
Glenn Youngkin pulled the same crap in Virginia in 2021. He made states inferring he was not a Trump Republican but not laying out any differences in policies with Trump. He constantly evaded questions on ties to Trump despite his campaign following every plan Trump mentioned. But he kept repeating "I'm not Trump. I'm independent and will do what Virginia needs to have done." And voters fell for it, aided by the popular idea the current incumbent Democrat supported post birth abortions. Then once he was elected moved in lock step with the MAGA cult. Which any sensible person knew he would do. He was another tech millionaire who think because they can make a lot of money every idea they have is great.
I’m thinking it’s like how Democratic governors in red states do if they run for Senate. Typically there is buzz, and a courtship with the voters that puts them tied, give or take a few percent. But like Gov Phil Bredesen in Tennessee in 2018, the ‘wingers come home and Bredesen lost to Marsha Blackburn by 10% anyway (and Phil had a REAL Taylor Swift endorsement!).
This is probably this "reasonable Republican" hogwash that gives people an *excuse* to vote for Hogan. I believe he might've also sent National Guard troops to help on January 6? Basically the same kind of thing where if you manage to do one or two things right as a Republican, that's good enough to get the nod, while a Democrat needs to move heaven and earth.
Also why I don't believe polls when they give us good numbers. We should just vote anyway and se what happens.
Name calling is not the way to get Maryland Democrats to against Larry Hogan, who deserves respect for standing up to Trump. In fact it will have the opposite. I stopped reading (and I'm already on your side.) Have some respect for the reader. Rationally point out his absurd statement that Harris and Alsobrooks are far left and such facts as: 1) He opposed a $15 minimum wage.
2) He said no to common-sense gun laws like background checks.
3) He vetoed a bill that would have made it easier for women to access reproductive care in Maryland.
4) He was hand-picked by Mitch McConnell to run.
5) He is supported by far-right MAGA donors.
If you kept reading you would have seen the article did list all that
Mmm. She has a point. If you bury the lead, you lose the persuadable. Then again, given this audience....nah, doesn't work, the first duty is to know the audience. And the second is to know that you can't know the audience, or be responsible for what they take away from a comment. Confirmation bias always wins.
So this is why we don't allow comments.
I may be dense, but I'm not even sure what you are saying. I was annoyed that instead of reading a rational discussion, I got turned off right away by a nasty comment. Hogan did have a few virtues, which should be recognized, and I think slams like that will increase support for Hogan not weaken it. Also, I walk away with a poorer opinion of the whole site.
Personally, I'm not a fan of the 'when they go low......'. It didn't hold up well in an age of instant gratification via clicks.
To call someone a "bag of old coleslaw" perhaps is not the worst insult in the world, but it rubbed me wrong. And I doubt it's going to shift any votes from him! If you were a Marylander you would understand why Hogan gets respect. Lead with the important thing--which is that he is a Republican through and through, and must be defeated.
This is a blog. These aren't reporters.
Actual current Maryland Senate polling results from the very Republican leaning RCP-
https://substack.com/profile/671070-paulomatic/note/c-67665106?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=edsu
Check the dates, AARP is the only poll since June.
Yes, and that's an important point. Maryland is seat 49 0f the 50 we need in the Senate. It's an incredibly important race- why aren't there dozens of polls like Ohio and Pennsylvania? I think it's because the internal polling shows that it is a lost cause for Hogan and has been all along. Can you think of any other explanation?
The only polls Hogan led were before the primary. They were all Hogan versus "unknown candidate." The instant the primary occurred and his opponent had a name, there was a 30 point flip.
I'm sure you know Fabrizio well, he's an actual Trump campaign advisor and pollster. When the best Fabrizio can do is a tie, they're losing badly.
RCP also pulled a fast one by showing Alsobrook as the opponent in those early polls, she was not.
It's all good news!
Now help us win Montana for Tester, that's gonna be the tough climb.