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What about people who do know his accomplishments and are still (rightfully) pissed about the support for Israel and the pathetic attempts to somehow both avoid and address those pesky human rights violations and if you’re from the reliably blue Texas border region that further militarizing of the border?

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We are also a YEAR away. Trump will be a convicted felon by then, waiting for the scotus to rule that it’s unconstitutional to stop Trump from running simply because he’s a felon. See, he WAS potus BEFORE he was a felon, ipso facto, habeus corpus, bippity boppity boo, he’s eligible to run again. He will simply be on White House arrest if he wins.

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People polled said they believe Biden’s policies have hurt them, though none of them could say exactly how. “It’s a feeling, you know? Like when they refer to Biden’s family as the ‘Biden crime family,’ it must be true or they couldn’t say it. Plus, gas prices were up in ‘22 and then back down. But under Biden they never STAY down. Why not? And where are the tariffs? Trump was strong on tariffs, which I feel probably helped me, in some way.” Others reacted similarly. “We almost never hear from Biden. Unless he’s saying something politically correct or kind or all lovey-dovey, he almost never gets angry and rage-tweets like Trump did. We always knew what Trump was thinking. What is Biden thinking? Is he afraid to share his thoughts from moment to moment? And he’s never unhinged or furious. Where is the passion?” Younger voters seemed equally frustrated. “He did a big infrastructure, right? Why not OUTfrastructure?” And the most common sentiment, “he’s like, old. Way older than Trump. Trump is crazy, man, and pretty mean, like, dark and angry, I’ll give you that. But he scares the commies and Marxmen. He loco! But he’s younger, like, years younger. And he’s full of piss and vinaigrette and shit. He says terrible stuff, like, tells it like it is. Life sucks, so why not vote for Trump.” Polling showed 47% favored Trump over Biden (44%), but 90% of those polled were insane.

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Even in 2020, people weren't so much voting gleefully for Biden as against the fascist Trump. I would agree that fear and anger will be key motivators in 2024: fear that the maniac might actually win and start the show trials and disappearings, and deep anger at the Republicans for their anti-reproductive-rights activities and feckless refusal to govern. Biden could help by making a strong case that for most of us, wisdom comes with age: people need to confront their "ageist" assumptions. Saying we should elect presidents in their 40s-60s would make sense as a general proposition, but it's a mistake to advance it at this critical juncture. Biden may be frail, but he is the man for the present time, and he has done well so far. Truth be told, when you consider his accomplishments, Joe Biden comes across more like Shakespeare's aging but magnificent Prospero in The Tempest than a "doddering old man."

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2024 is indeed likely to be a choice - are you more afraid of Biden being an elder statesman or Trump ending democracy…ageism or fascism?

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Suicidal overconfidence is never a good thing for a political candidate to have.

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Fortunately, Trump has none of that. Except about 2020. He knows passionately and insanely that he won. Oh, and ‘24. He knows he won 2024 already, but it was RIGGED and STOLLEN from him. So he’s asking for $250 million of your last dollars so he can keep the money.

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We run geezers because geezers vote, and the kids forget to vote because they stayed up until 11 at Pop’s Soda Shoppe listening to Chubby Checker.

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Call me an optimist, but I'm not sure how Trump makes it on enough ballots in 2024 after a felony conviction. That feels like the end of the road for him.

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The more this old guy thinks about it, the age “concern” seems to be code for its time for the gerontocracy to pass the torch to the younger generations

I would be much more comfortable with Whitmer, Pritzger, Shapiro, Mayor Pete or Newsom (and I am not a big newsom fan)

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I think Beshear is another likely bet for 2028. But in 2024, I'm fine with Biden.

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Big Gretch '28

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This shut sure is some good 3 AM fodder. I’m convinced now that The Beast could come back

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I have to have, well, doubts about a poll claiming that Trump will get 22% of the Black vote since no Republican presidential candidate has ever come close to that, that he and Biden are close in popularity on abortion even though elections are showing a pushback even by Republicans, or that Trump would be coasting to wins in states with popular Democratic governors or where Democratic surges elected Senators or Democrats are favored in such races.

There has also been no campaign, including by popular surrogates, yet.

It's a poll that flies in the face of proven realities.

But yes - if fear lights a fire then I'm good with it.

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and the other thing they do is they always have to have something to scare their sheep like abortions after a baby is born, big bad male athletes playing on the girls' team.

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𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘪𝘴𝘯’𝘵 𝘷𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘉𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘪𝘨𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘴𝘰 𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘸 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮

I have a hard time seeing what, exactly, is wrong with that statement.

I just have no patience whatever with anyone who shows the slightest hesitancy in voting for Biden. His "negatives" are based on NOTHING.

His biggest problem is that the country is filled with fools who have never experienced a period of inflation in their lives before. That means they don't realize when it's over. They think that unless and until the price of everything drops back to what it was in 2017, they're still victims of inflation and it's Biden's fault.

I could just scream over the number of nincompoops in this wretched country.

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Few presidents have minimized and managed a recession as well as Biden has. But Americans are more interested in Hunter’s penis than the fact that Biden is a jobs machine. All he does is invest in infrastructure and jobs. He countered rising inflation with the lowest unemployment in decades. But the media barely mentions that. They focus on whatever glue sniffing Republicans are doing today, and worries about Biden’s age. Maybe if Tim Kayne were VP, we wouldn’t be contending with both ageism and sexism. At least if Biden didn’t last a second term, another dude would be potus. Can America survive a Harris presidency??? America pretty much deserves Trump 2.0 after the way they’ve treated Biden and Harris. They have no clue whatsoever what’s good for them.

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To keep a democratic republic going, we need at least a decent plurality of citizens who have some idea what's actually going on, not just notions based on what their stupid biases, wacky internet babble, and thin-air suppositions tell them. It's becoming increasingly clear that we may not have that plurality. Self-governance doesn't thrive in such circumstances.

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Nov 7, 2023Liked by Stephen Robinson

What’s wrong with that statement is that bigoted fools vote count just as much as yours.

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Beau has some thoughts, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBs2tgfVRpE

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The point about that RED WAVE is not whether Biden was involved much or not.

It is: every fucking mainstream media outlet "got" it wrong. They all immediately joined the doomsday sayers once right wing media started to pump that penny stock. God knows how many blue voters got demotivated by that, and stayed home because "lost cause anyway".

That's the key thing to remember: do not trust NYT or WaPo or MSNBC with their poll numbers.

Panic sells, that simple. Why report about delusional Trump yapping "we won all 50 states" when you can instead look at outlier polls. Best case, that helps driving blue voters away, which leads to GOP wins ... and that creates even more panic.

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Nov 6, 2023Liked by Stephen Robinson

Did they, though? What I recall from last year was that Republicans did hype a "red wave" but media reports were about split between whether it'd be big gains or barely any gains at all for Republicans, because the polls were fairly narrow near the end. You wouldn't have been called crazy to suggest Dems could hold the House (which they almost did). I don't recall the polls being way off last year.

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I do recall that a lot of "liberal" media gladly picked up that "red wave" talking point, as if it were real, totally ignoring their own polls from just some days back.

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author

My take, as well. Though, as I've written, Democrats *themselves* helped that narrative with mass resignations.

While there wasn't a Red Wave, I think it's a mistake for Dems to celebrate 2022 as some resounding victory. We arguably lost the House because of GOP over performance in New York, specifically because we fumbled the ball on crime. Like I've seen with the economy, Democratic officials (including Hochul) denied the reality of voters and this bit them in the ass.

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Nov 6, 2023Liked by Stephen Robinson

Yeah--a better performance in NY (and CA) swing districts (maybe with a Dem-controlled state govt, in both cases, that was willing to draw districts the way Republicans do?) and we'd be talking now about what election-year agenda Democrats could pass and not "how bad will this shutdown be and why didn't we just pass a permanent CR when we controlled Congress last?" I don't recall being that surprised that the red wave fizzled, though, because there was a lot of polling (and punditry) indicating that Dobbs and J6 would blunt any movement against Dems due to inflation.

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Nov 6, 2023Liked by Stephen Robinson

i would like to point out 3 things:

1. the Pod Save America kids ALSO routinely point out that it's way early and R's are having a primary and D's are having Halloween and fall holidays. i think there's some truth to the idea that we just aren't paying attention - and won't for a bit.

2. there WAS a lot of R fuckery with polling in 2022. it was a deliberate strategy to scare the shit out of us. and it worked (so well that we phone banked and canvassed and post carded and browbeat family and friends). Simon Rosenburg and Michael Podhorzer have great post election assessments of this.

3. the more trump talks the more people hate him. and he's going to be talking a lot in the next year.

(that being said, i'm still freaking the fuck right out because that's what i do)

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Regarding point 1. The R's are having a primary in name only. Let's call it what it really is, Vice Presidential tryouts.

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1. Dems should probably be campaigning *right now.* I'm sort of done with that excuse. Biden declared his candidacy already, and the WHOLE POINT of not having a bruising Democratic primary is so that Biden could get a head start. The GOP isn't having a normal primary but rather just hammering Biden with general election arguments. It's as if Trump is already the nominee and they are acting as his surrogates while he's in jail.

2. I don't think polling predicting a Red Wave was intended to scare voters ... or rather if it did, it failed and had the opposite result. Considering that 2010, 2014, and 2016 were the result of complacency -- and even 2020's underperformance down ballot -- there's an argument that spooked polling is an effective motivator for Dems.

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Nov 6, 2023Liked by Stephen Robinson

oh i'm not saying we SHOULDN'T be campaigning (I'm phone banking for VA with Sister District as i type this). it's just a reality that getting folks to pay attention when it's not a fight in front of their face is hurdle that's hard to surmount.

seriously listen to some of the Rosenberg/Podhorzer stuff (if you haven't already / have any time). there is some evidence that R's were using a 'scare D's with bad polling' tactic. as you see, it backfired with many of us.

and i am still fucking terrified.

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Yes, Republicans flooded the field with right-leaning polls that tainted the polling averages. 538 annoyingly didn't correct for this, IIRC.

However, that is different from suggesting that NYT/Siena is suddenly Ramussen.

Times/Siena had Warnock ahead by about the margin he won, while Trafalgar and Fox had Walker winning.

It's similar with Nevada. It was mostly right-leaning polls that had Laxalt winning but the more established ones had Cortez-Masto narrowly prevailing, which is what happened.

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