I know this is anecdotal, but I think the Cruz campaign is running scared. I live in TX, and have been getting fundraising texts from Cruz for a few weeks now. They come about every second or third day (the ones from TrumpCo are multiple times per day). Today, Cruz asked if I could contribute one dollar to his campaign. My response is posted as a note.
Flooding the zone with shit. I've been thinking that was the case, but the media (including UK media!) just wants it SO BAD to be a white knuckle horse race. Damn thirsty m'fers...
I was hooked by Marcie’s writing and analysis straight away, and this piece is no exception. But if anyone ever wrote anything so goddamned good that I’d be moved to propose marriage WERE I NOT ALREADY MARRIED, it was Marcie who penned the following last week about Larry Hogan :
“Alsobrooks was waiting with a knife and a fork for that rump roast.
“And then there’s Hogan’s scandal that broke yesterday. Simply the worst day ever for that flip-flopping bag of mashed potatoes!”
Thank you. I am now cheered up. My yard signs had disappeared this morning. But a new one has been greased up with Vaseline. Next year I will be 80 and found doing that after it was up harder than anticipated. This is the first time any of my signs went missing, and I live in a very very red little town in TX. So I suppose that's something good too.
100% Pure capsaicin oil on the grabbing points is the very best. Apply it with a small brush. Takes a little bit before they rub their eyes and pick their nose, so a good chance it gets everywhere first. Double bonus if they go straight home to jerk off in celebration for owning the libs.
I noticed this the other day. All the latest polls were either Trump sponsored or were by suspiciously right wing sounding firms. My usual go to if I see it is Rasmussen. I know they’re generally three to five points redder than reality, and if read as such can be a reasonable indicator. Some of the polls I saw were further red than Rasmussen, so, boulder of salt.
Last night on Google news, the Politico story about that internal memo was on top and below it was the NYT headline "Republicans likely to take Senate control". I almost took a screenshot to show how this bizzarro world narrative is playing out.
actually i think there's a good chance they will take the senate back. hoping i'm wrong, but guardedly optimistic about the harris and the house. i mean right now, fucking ted cruz is our best pick up opportunity.
Kamala has a billion dollars. A BILLION!!! She can spend money on ALL the races, then buy up all of Trump's $100,000 gold watches and melt them down into a participation trophy for Donnie.
Read an article from Pew Research on polling error, IMO it’s well done. There are 4 types of bias, sampling error is just one, and is the only one included in determining the MOE by pollsters. The others are 1. non-response (like not answering the phone or the online survey), 2. target audience undersampling (for example, youngsters in general; race by age by sex; and newly registered), and 3. Measurement error, which is how the questions are worded and interpreted by the respondent. Pew Research said those factors increase the actual MOE substantially. For example, the reported MOE may be 3, but the actual MOE is 5-7. On top of this, there’s the weighting of each variable which is not standard across polling companies. Most of the polls I’ve seen have sample sizes under 1,500, many in the 700-1,000 range. In my personal research experience (15 years), I’ve learned that those sample sizes, with comparisons between groups (by age, sex, race/ethnicity, political affiliation) for each question, are usually too small for validity. Especially considering the other sources of error.
I've said this for years. Stop trying to tell me how 1,500 people can accurately reflect the reality of what 5 million or 25 or 175 million people believe/like.
"Why would Republicans want to pretend they’re winning when they’re losing? ... Another major reason is so that Trump and Republicans can whine and say somebody cheated when they lose."
This is the reason. Guys, Trump is campaigning in CALIFORNIA, a state he has no hope of winning. But it does have five brand-new Republican Congressmen who are defending their seats for the first time ever. That's very important for keeping control of the House, and Mike Johnson as Speaker.
And since when did Trump ever give a shit about anyone besides himself? There is only one reason why Trump would care about the House. He has given up on winning the election legitimately, he plans to steal it.
Stephen Robinson has a very good article on this over at The Play Typer Guy.
"Our Dionne Warwick sense is saying it is the second one."
I believe it was Mike Oldfield who did "Ketchup on the Wall" in the eighties.
I know this is anecdotal, but I think the Cruz campaign is running scared. I live in TX, and have been getting fundraising texts from Cruz for a few weeks now. They come about every second or third day (the ones from TrumpCo are multiple times per day). Today, Cruz asked if I could contribute one dollar to his campaign. My response is posted as a note.
https://substack.com/profile/5889821-brianw/note/c-72661427
Flooding the zone with shit. I've been thinking that was the case, but the media (including UK media!) just wants it SO BAD to be a white knuckle horse race. Damn thirsty m'fers...
I was hooked by Marcie’s writing and analysis straight away, and this piece is no exception. But if anyone ever wrote anything so goddamned good that I’d be moved to propose marriage WERE I NOT ALREADY MARRIED, it was Marcie who penned the following last week about Larry Hogan :
“Alsobrooks was waiting with a knife and a fork for that rump roast.
“And then there’s Hogan’s scandal that broke yesterday. Simply the worst day ever for that flip-flopping bag of mashed potatoes!”
Thank you. I am now cheered up. My yard signs had disappeared this morning. But a new one has been greased up with Vaseline. Next year I will be 80 and found doing that after it was up harder than anticipated. This is the first time any of my signs went missing, and I live in a very very red little town in TX. So I suppose that's something good too.
mr fuf's mom lost hers in lake altoona GA (had to rip it off nails...). we are PISSED and buying her more.
Put airtags on them. It's illegal.
Plan B: Put a pair of nitrile gloves on and schmear poopsie on them discreetly.
100% Pure capsaicin oil on the grabbing points is the very best. Apply it with a small brush. Takes a little bit before they rub their eyes and pick their nose, so a good chance it gets everywhere first. Double bonus if they go straight home to jerk off in celebration for owning the libs.
Greater than 60% of people are OK with abortion.
80% want to tax the rich.
70% of people think the Roberts-Taney Immunity decision was wrong.
These are all within the margin of error.
Why do I wake up every morning nauseous? The corporate media.
I noticed this the other day. All the latest polls were either Trump sponsored or were by suspiciously right wing sounding firms. My usual go to if I see it is Rasmussen. I know they’re generally three to five points redder than reality, and if read as such can be a reasonable indicator. Some of the polls I saw were further red than Rasmussen, so, boulder of salt.
I saw some rightwinger blathering on about an NBC poll, which I trust about as much as a Fox poll.
I think his name was Steve Kornappy
The moment I see someone quoting a poll, I move on. Nothing to see here.
Last night on Google news, the Politico story about that internal memo was on top and below it was the NYT headline "Republicans likely to take Senate control". I almost took a screenshot to show how this bizzarro world narrative is playing out.
actually i think there's a good chance they will take the senate back. hoping i'm wrong, but guardedly optimistic about the harris and the house. i mean right now, fucking ted cruz is our best pick up opportunity.
Kamala has a billion dollars. A BILLION!!! She can spend money on ALL the races, then buy up all of Trump's $100,000 gold watches and melt them down into a participation trophy for Donnie.
Many people are saying this. The Kroger delivery guy just said when he came to Temporary HQ awhile ago.
Read an article from Pew Research on polling error, IMO it’s well done. There are 4 types of bias, sampling error is just one, and is the only one included in determining the MOE by pollsters. The others are 1. non-response (like not answering the phone or the online survey), 2. target audience undersampling (for example, youngsters in general; race by age by sex; and newly registered), and 3. Measurement error, which is how the questions are worded and interpreted by the respondent. Pew Research said those factors increase the actual MOE substantially. For example, the reported MOE may be 3, but the actual MOE is 5-7. On top of this, there’s the weighting of each variable which is not standard across polling companies. Most of the polls I’ve seen have sample sizes under 1,500, many in the 700-1,000 range. In my personal research experience (15 years), I’ve learned that those sample sizes, with comparisons between groups (by age, sex, race/ethnicity, political affiliation) for each question, are usually too small for validity. Especially considering the other sources of error.
I've said this for years. Stop trying to tell me how 1,500 people can accurately reflect the reality of what 5 million or 25 or 175 million people believe/like.
Do I have to quit plotzing though?
"Why would Republicans want to pretend they’re winning when they’re losing? ... Another major reason is so that Trump and Republicans can whine and say somebody cheated when they lose."
This is the reason. Guys, Trump is campaigning in CALIFORNIA, a state he has no hope of winning. But it does have five brand-new Republican Congressmen who are defending their seats for the first time ever. That's very important for keeping control of the House, and Mike Johnson as Speaker.
And since when did Trump ever give a shit about anyone besides himself? There is only one reason why Trump would care about the House. He has given up on winning the election legitimately, he plans to steal it.
Somehow, Marcie Jones usually improves my mood. This time, at least, it's obvious why!