Recall Polls Looking Better For Gavin Newsom, But You California People Gotta VOTE

Did you return your mail in ballot yet? DID YOU?

After polls early last month showed the recall election against California Gov. Gavin Newsom a lot closer than was really comfortable, two polls out this week indicate that as the September 14 election gets closer, Newsom's actually looking in better shape, but don't you California Wonkette readers even think that could mean you don't need to return your mail-in ballots.

Look, we know you filthy fuckaducks: Half of you voted NO on the recall within 24 hours of getting the ballot, because you are big political nerds, and half of you were excited about voting and then set the ballot down to take care of later, and now a quarter of you can't remember exactly where it got to, because you are big political nerds with ADHD. Find the thing and vote, you!

So let's look at these here polls! The first, from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune , shows "NO" — that is, shall Newsom be recalled — with 51 percent of respondents, and "YES" well behind at 43 percent, with 6 percent undecided. That's a good change, since the same polling outfit found the recall winning by 51 to 40 percent last month. So hooray for flipping those numbers! Also too, as the San Francisco Chronicle 'splains, the poll seems to show a bit less to fret about when it comes to voters' willingness to vote:

83% of Republicans said they already sent in their ballots or were likely/certain to vote, and 81% of Democrats said the same. The previous SurveyUSA/San Diego Union-Tribune poll found that 84% Republicans were likely or certain to vote (ballots had not been sent out yet) compared to just 62% of Democrats who said the same.

That may mean that the "enthusiasm gap" that had Democrats worried might not be as much of a factor as feared; it may also help Newsom that because of the pandemic, all voters were mailed a ballot, as should Democrats' nearly two to one voter registration advantage over Republicans. You don't have to be excited about keeping Newsom in office, you just have to make sure to send in the ballot.

The other poll, out yesterday from the Public Policy Institute of California, shows "NO" with a comfortable BUT DON'T GET COMPLACENT lead, whomping "YES" by 58 percent to 39 percent, with three percent answering "don't know," because three percent of Americans don't ever know or drift off during the first or second question.

The LA Times notes that since those polls last month showing the election getting uncomfortably close, like someone tailgating you on the Pacific Coast Highway, Newsom's campaign has increased advertising statewide, calling attention to the Trumpiness of the leading Republican candidate, weirdass talk show host Larry Elder, who as we have noted is pretty awful all around. 

Newsom has particularly been hammering the GOP candidates on their opposition to public health, and because California Democrats are a generally sane bunch, they aren't very keen on the Republicans' stated plans to undo mask and vaccine requirements, or to make California schools into mask-free coronavirus stewpots.

The survey found that 41% of likely voters said California would be worse off if Newsom is recalled, compared to 31% who thought things would get better in the state. The remainder either thought everything would stay the same or did not know.

But what about enthusiasm? The poll might show a gap there, but we aren't sure how much it matters due to the phrasing of the question, asking if people are "more enthusiastic than usual about voting." Fifty-four percent of Republicans said they were, as did 53 percent of independents, while only 40 percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic thatn usual. But does that really mean anything? We can see why Republicans might be thrilled at the prospect of electing a fellow wingnut they listen to on the radio, but Democrats may be motivated more by keeping that from happening, even if they aren't getting a tingly feeling about the prospect of voting.

We want a "grim determination" question, is what we want.

Also there's this intriguing observation from the Chronicle :

PPIC polls have typically understated Democratic support in statewide elections. Their final poll of the 2020 presidential election showed Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 26 percentage points, and Biden went on to win by 29 percentage points. Their final 2018 gubernatorial poll showed Newsom leading John Cox by 11 percentage points, and Newsom went on to win by 23 percentage points.

Again, don't get too cocky and assume that'll hold this time around. Root around in that pile of bills and pizza coupons, find your ballot, and get it in.

OPEN THREAD!

[ PPIC Poll / Survey USA poll / SFGate / LAT / SFGate / Photo:  Gage Skidmore, Creative Commons License 2.0 ]

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