There is nothing funnier than 'educated' people who think that is the one and only measure of intelligence and problem solving skills.
Anyone who has read significantly on statistics, mass psychology and basic scientific method can pretty clearly see what Epstein is doing wrong. He is connecting the starting assumptions of his work with the end results without any attempt to rationally justify the steps leading to his conclusion.
So... he basically is saying that since EVERY virus in the entire history of mankind eventually slows and then over time disappears, it MUST BE an 'evolution' of the virus that makes it happen!!!
The problem is that he is taking the basic concepts of Darwinism and applying them to a non-genetic model.... which is fine... if all you want to do is predict outcomes... but he is ALSO making purported factual statements (or at the very least opinions) about what is happening genetically to the virus... which is just.... flat.... wrong.
His big 'miss' in the model he is using, which shows how viruses start out growing rapidly, and then the spread slows, and eventually the number of cases begins to shrink, and eventually the virus becomes something less than a major threat.... THAT MODEL INCLUDES HUMAN INTERVENTION!!!! You can't look at the H1N1 outbreak, or the AIDS pandemic and simply claim "Duh, the virus musta got LESS deadly! DURRR..." When you ONLY look at outcomes, you have to, must, REALLY NEED TO include the possibility that ANY of the many, many factors in the model contributed to the results.
In other words he is saying:"History shows us that viruses DON'T spread over 100% of the population and kill everyone... they spread in a bell curve and eventually become less deadly to society... SO NO NEED TO DO ANYTHING... IT'LL HAPPEN BY THE MAGIC OF GENETIC EVOLUTION!!!"
When in fact, the CORRECT statement would be:"History shows us that viruses in human society DON'T spread over 100% of the population and kill everyone... they spread in a bell curve and eventually become less deadly to society... SO WE SHOULD MAKE SURE WE DO ALL THE SAME THINGS THAT PEOPLE HAVE ALWAYS DONE IN TIMES OF PANDEMIC.... like exaggerating the possible danger we all face, keeping distance from those who are or may be infected, working hard to find cures or treatments to reduce the severity of the illness, and WHATEVER YOU DO... don't ignore the issue or 'go about your normal business'...."
When I was a kid I worked as Asst. Mgr. of a movie theater in Greenwich, CT, and we used to have a running gag of how many days would go by between someone saying 'Do you know who I am?'. The highest we ever got was around 35 days... we had one ballsy cashier who actually used the old line "No sir, but please don't worry, I can contact the police and I'm sure they can help you find out and get you home..."
I can see why he was so popular among the Trumpers. Hes the Conservate ideal of an scholar. He uses big words and can sound like hes smart but has the depth of an puddle. An added bonus is he gets super aggro when anyone calls him out.
Wasn't he the glasses guy? https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
Or "if it risks Trump losing reelection" which is what this is all about on the Right. They're sick.
Comparing resumes! How 1980s! "Excuse me while I whip this out".
Epstein should never speak again. Ever.
"Tell me what you think about the quality of the work!" You can't handle the truth!
Hey it pays the bills!
There is nothing funnier than 'educated' people who think that is the one and only measure of intelligence and problem solving skills.
Anyone who has read significantly on statistics, mass psychology and basic scientific method can pretty clearly see what Epstein is doing wrong. He is connecting the starting assumptions of his work with the end results without any attempt to rationally justify the steps leading to his conclusion.
So... he basically is saying that since EVERY virus in the entire history of mankind eventually slows and then over time disappears, it MUST BE an 'evolution' of the virus that makes it happen!!!
The problem is that he is taking the basic concepts of Darwinism and applying them to a non-genetic model.... which is fine... if all you want to do is predict outcomes... but he is ALSO making purported factual statements (or at the very least opinions) about what is happening genetically to the virus... which is just.... flat.... wrong.
His big 'miss' in the model he is using, which shows how viruses start out growing rapidly, and then the spread slows, and eventually the number of cases begins to shrink, and eventually the virus becomes something less than a major threat.... THAT MODEL INCLUDES HUMAN INTERVENTION!!!! You can't look at the H1N1 outbreak, or the AIDS pandemic and simply claim "Duh, the virus musta got LESS deadly! DURRR..." When you ONLY look at outcomes, you have to, must, REALLY NEED TO include the possibility that ANY of the many, many factors in the model contributed to the results.
In other words he is saying:"History shows us that viruses DON'T spread over 100% of the population and kill everyone... they spread in a bell curve and eventually become less deadly to society... SO NO NEED TO DO ANYTHING... IT'LL HAPPEN BY THE MAGIC OF GENETIC EVOLUTION!!!"
When in fact, the CORRECT statement would be:"History shows us that viruses in human society DON'T spread over 100% of the population and kill everyone... they spread in a bell curve and eventually become less deadly to society... SO WE SHOULD MAKE SURE WE DO ALL THE SAME THINGS THAT PEOPLE HAVE ALWAYS DONE IN TIMES OF PANDEMIC.... like exaggerating the possible danger we all face, keeping distance from those who are or may be infected, working hard to find cures or treatments to reduce the severity of the illness, and WHATEVER YOU DO... don't ignore the issue or 'go about your normal business'...."
When I was a kid I worked as Asst. Mgr. of a movie theater in Greenwich, CT, and we used to have a running gag of how many days would go by between someone saying 'Do you know who I am?'. The highest we ever got was around 35 days... we had one ballsy cashier who actually used the old line "No sir, but please don't worry, I can contact the police and I'm sure they can help you find out and get you home..."
I can see why he was so popular among the Trumpers. Hes the Conservate ideal of an scholar. He uses big words and can sound like hes smart but has the depth of an puddle. An added bonus is he gets super aggro when anyone calls him out.
What it most reminds me of is American Psycho
"if/when the US death toll goes above 5k (which sadly looks extremely likely)" This week, if the doubling time of 3-4 days keeps holding
Lesson learned: read *all* the links. 🤦♂️
Was Brian the last decent Epstein? Discuss.
I read the New Yorker article yesterday. SMDH.
No criticism intended!
If I haven't said it before I'll say it now - anything coming out of the Hoover Institute, by definition, sucks [fill in the blank].
"Second of all, I'm a FUCKING IDIOT!"