I have a dream, that one day the White House and both chambers of Congress will be ours, and we will add the ERA to the Constitutional Amendments, and pass a stronger reproductive rights bill into law, and give the IRS enough money to go after the biggest rich tax cheats, and better prepare for climate change, and pass sensible Federal gun safety laws, and clean up the Federal Judicial branch, and....do it in the first two years of Biden's second term. OH--and I hope the DOJ makes sure the Manchurian Cantaloupe is made to face his many, many crimes in court, be convicted, and actually live the rest of his days in prison. And that as many of his enablers as possible are rounded up for the same. Is Jack Smith available to become the next Attorney General of the USA? *Sigh* No, I'm not smoking anything. Andrew Tate should go fuck himself in prison
It’s not going to be close, Biden is winning this in a walk. That’s what the supposed “liberal media” doesn’t want you to know. Because they want a horse race, because that sells clicks and raises advertising dollars. AZ and GA are staying blue, so are PA, WI and MI and NC will flip. Even TX won’t even be able to be called on election night, Biden won’t win Texas, but it’ll be too close to call as the polls close.
We don’t have a liberal media, we have a sensationalist media, that’s the MSM, and we have a corporate conservative media, that’s the WSJs and NYTs and the WAPOs and we have a fascist foaming at the mouth wingnut media, that’s Fox News and its bastard offspring in Right Side Broadcasting, NewsMax and the new Trump Fluffer Channel, featuring 24/7 uninterrupted Donald J Trump fluffing and ball cupping updates, brought to you by MyPillow…when you’ve had a long day trying to implement Christofascism and need a good nights rest, think MyPillow!!
I've done some back of the napkin estimations on this situation. I tend to agree with Deebs. The thing is, where has Trump picked up support? Where has he bled support? The best thing that he has going for him is people are starting to forget how awful he was. Forget his ride or die thrall. They were never voting for a Democrat anyway. The "independents" are who matter. Even the low info voters are going to think twice before pulling the lever for a felon, especially one who the more they think about, the more they *remember* from last time. That's all soft speculation sure, but also consider that presidential approval ratings being what they are, and campaigns being constantly negative, people aren't voting for someone. They're voting against someone else.
If Trump is good at anything it's driving turnout - for Democrats.
Then there's Dobbs. The pollsters seem to ignore Dobbs, but election after election its still proving a potent driver when abortion is on the ballot, like it is coming up in FL.
And of course demographic changes, which pollsters seem to be lagging on as well.**
Then you have to consider that he's siphoning all the money from down ballot races via the RNC and things are not looking good for Republicans.
** more about pollsters and the problems with them. Who the hell answers calls from people whose numbers they don't recognize? Olds. That's who. Check their methodology, it being 2024 and all.
Agree 100%. Pollsters are one job I agree 100% with AI taking over for completely. Because they suck. And I believe the MSM puts their thumb on the scale for the pollster data they do get, as flawed as the raw data is, the MSM makes it even worse, or better I suppose if you’re a white nationalist dickhead who wants Trump to win. Hell, Wonkette has exposed this numerous times. Like a NYT sponsored presidential poll that asked 1000 respondents who they preferred. It was 52-48 Trump over Biden. Here’s the problem though, their sample was 40% rural, 40% suburban and 20% urban. Yeah, nice double count of the Trump vote there NYT 👌 totally not biased data sets 🙄 America isn’t 40% rural anymore, hasn’t been for like 5 decades now. It’s like 25% urban, 55% suburban and 15% rural. The suburbs decide this thing now, and most suburbs are blue. Not deep blue, but blue. 55/45, 60/40 in some cases. It’s not 80/20 blue like the cities, but the suburbs sure as hell aren’t 90/10 red anymore. There are no more country club republicans anymore, they’ve all gotten off the crazy train.
“Chain” is being generous. There are two grocery stores owned by this family, and they are both in Mahoning County, which isn’t even part of this district (though it borders Columbiana County). Side note: In my opinion, the best pierogies in the Mahoning Valley are to be found at their stores.
This section of eastern Ohio confounds me, because these people have been fucked by capitalists for the better part of a century, yet they swallow Trump’s bullshit hook, line, and sinker. I guess it’s the protectionist/anti-immigration piece of his message that resonates…they blame China and other foreign economies for “stealing” their jobs, not the industrialists and bad policies that actually hollowed out the economy.
My Democrats couldn't be bothered to contest the seat, it would seem. If they got off their asses they might have carried it. It's almost as if they don't really care, as if it makes no difference since they get paid either way.
I do not think you get paid if you are not actually elected.
But aside from that, if we want Dems to run in every election, we need to get people to step up and run I am thinking. Democrats can't make anyone do that.
I think that, once again, women will save us, this time because they are rightly scared and they’re angry that they’re scared. I also believe there’s a lot of people who are sick of polls and pollers to the extent that their only response will be “No, I won’t you tell what I think, asshole, fuck off” (though some will do so more politely).
I also think that the GOP’s sleazebags and/or crazy people will lose in significant numbers. Their convention will resemble a cross between a CPAC meeting and a conspiracy event even more than their usual rah-rah batshit festival, and it will be noted for its intraparty cannibalism. I mean, I can’t wait for them to give Mark Robinson an evening speaking slot. And Trump will steal all the down-ballot money for his own campaign and legal bills.
Further, Biden will destroy Trump to the extent that only one debate will occur—maybe.
Right now, my biggest fear is a Biden medical emergency or something that the right will frame as such, along with election interference hijinks, an abrupt downturn in the economy, or another big shooting war breaking out. If none of these things happen, the GOP will, in desperation, turn to the “Joe is old and Kamala is black” strategery. This will be counterproductive.
Wild card: NOAA predicts an exceptionally active hurricane season.
I think you're right. We can never be certain what wicked thing this way comes -- there's always room for surprises. But on the whole, I would not like my chances if I were a Republican in 2024. I also think huge numbers of Republican women (and some men) are going to vote against those who are responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. The GOP and the Christo-Fascist SCOTUS have turned reproductive rights into a single-issue affair when it comes to voting. It wasn't that before, but now, I believe, it is.
i predict felon don will dodge the debate by demanding that Biden also take a drug test, as you know donnie is required to be tested as a convicted felon … he’s already hinted at this before he was convicted … now he can dodge the debate bullet by capitalizing on the humiliation of his own pre-sentencing protocols …
A cat-5 storm on Merde a Lardo would be interesting. I'd be amused to see the Orange Moron confronting the gods and goddesses of the winds. The Abrahamic god is just a poseur, like the PAB. The pagan gods reflect reality
I'm wondering if this signifies that Democrats have an advantage among motivated voters--special elections are low-turnout games, and typically only the most motivated voters show up. If that's the case, maybe Biden would be better off if turnout is low this fall, and the "double haters" could end up staying home.
Wouldn't that be something if every Republican measure to depress voting worked against them?
Oh, a lot of them agree he's awful. But who gives a shit if it means a big tax cut and nobody making them feel bad for driving an $80,000, jacked-up diesel truck that gets 4 mpg?
I totally mis-read this headline and thought it was bad for the Dems. Thanks, Evan, for giving me hope that our people will break free from these absolute nutjobs. FTR, I believe we need both sides. It's good for discourse and being more balanced, WHEN the other side learns how to compromise. However, compromise seems to have gone the way of the horse and buggy in our politics and it's exhausting and demoralizing to see any batshit grandstanding lunatic hoping for their 15 minutes winning office. I want them all to crawl back under the slimy rocks they came from.
I think we can talk about compromise and balance after the GQP, or whatever replaces it as "conservative", stops trying to undo every good act that's passed in our lifetimes, and maybe even our parents' lifetimes.
I am cautiously optimistic. Incumbents aren’t doing well and people are dumb and forget that trump was an incumbent and we sent his ass home. He takes credit for things Biden does and although team Biden pushes back, I worry that people will blame him and give trump credit. I am a worry wart though. I also have a weird feeling that trump will fuxk something up
I have a dream, that one day the White House and both chambers of Congress will be ours, and we will add the ERA to the Constitutional Amendments, and pass a stronger reproductive rights bill into law, and give the IRS enough money to go after the biggest rich tax cheats, and better prepare for climate change, and pass sensible Federal gun safety laws, and clean up the Federal Judicial branch, and....do it in the first two years of Biden's second term. OH--and I hope the DOJ makes sure the Manchurian Cantaloupe is made to face his many, many crimes in court, be convicted, and actually live the rest of his days in prison. And that as many of his enablers as possible are rounded up for the same. Is Jack Smith available to become the next Attorney General of the USA? *Sigh* No, I'm not smoking anything. Andrew Tate should go fuck himself in prison
Can the landslide slide in basically flat areas? Yes, yes it can!
It’s not going to be close, Biden is winning this in a walk. That’s what the supposed “liberal media” doesn’t want you to know. Because they want a horse race, because that sells clicks and raises advertising dollars. AZ and GA are staying blue, so are PA, WI and MI and NC will flip. Even TX won’t even be able to be called on election night, Biden won’t win Texas, but it’ll be too close to call as the polls close.
We don’t have a liberal media, we have a sensationalist media, that’s the MSM, and we have a corporate conservative media, that’s the WSJs and NYTs and the WAPOs and we have a fascist foaming at the mouth wingnut media, that’s Fox News and its bastard offspring in Right Side Broadcasting, NewsMax and the new Trump Fluffer Channel, featuring 24/7 uninterrupted Donald J Trump fluffing and ball cupping updates, brought to you by MyPillow…when you’ve had a long day trying to implement Christofascism and need a good nights rest, think MyPillow!!
Please be right.
I've done some back of the napkin estimations on this situation. I tend to agree with Deebs. The thing is, where has Trump picked up support? Where has he bled support? The best thing that he has going for him is people are starting to forget how awful he was. Forget his ride or die thrall. They were never voting for a Democrat anyway. The "independents" are who matter. Even the low info voters are going to think twice before pulling the lever for a felon, especially one who the more they think about, the more they *remember* from last time. That's all soft speculation sure, but also consider that presidential approval ratings being what they are, and campaigns being constantly negative, people aren't voting for someone. They're voting against someone else.
If Trump is good at anything it's driving turnout - for Democrats.
Then there's Dobbs. The pollsters seem to ignore Dobbs, but election after election its still proving a potent driver when abortion is on the ballot, like it is coming up in FL.
And of course demographic changes, which pollsters seem to be lagging on as well.**
Then you have to consider that he's siphoning all the money from down ballot races via the RNC and things are not looking good for Republicans.
** more about pollsters and the problems with them. Who the hell answers calls from people whose numbers they don't recognize? Olds. That's who. Check their methodology, it being 2024 and all.
Agree 100%. Pollsters are one job I agree 100% with AI taking over for completely. Because they suck. And I believe the MSM puts their thumb on the scale for the pollster data they do get, as flawed as the raw data is, the MSM makes it even worse, or better I suppose if you’re a white nationalist dickhead who wants Trump to win. Hell, Wonkette has exposed this numerous times. Like a NYT sponsored presidential poll that asked 1000 respondents who they preferred. It was 52-48 Trump over Biden. Here’s the problem though, their sample was 40% rural, 40% suburban and 20% urban. Yeah, nice double count of the Trump vote there NYT 👌 totally not biased data sets 🙄 America isn’t 40% rural anymore, hasn’t been for like 5 decades now. It’s like 25% urban, 55% suburban and 15% rural. The suburbs decide this thing now, and most suburbs are blue. Not deep blue, but blue. 55/45, 60/40 in some cases. It’s not 80/20 blue like the cities, but the suburbs sure as hell aren’t 90/10 red anymore. There are no more country club republicans anymore, they’ve all gotten off the crazy train.
Ta, Evan. V-O-T-E!!!!
“Chain” is being generous. There are two grocery stores owned by this family, and they are both in Mahoning County, which isn’t even part of this district (though it borders Columbiana County). Side note: In my opinion, the best pierogies in the Mahoning Valley are to be found at their stores.
This section of eastern Ohio confounds me, because these people have been fucked by capitalists for the better part of a century, yet they swallow Trump’s bullshit hook, line, and sinker. I guess it’s the protectionist/anti-immigration piece of his message that resonates…they blame China and other foreign economies for “stealing” their jobs, not the industrialists and bad policies that actually hollowed out the economy.
My Democrats couldn't be bothered to contest the seat, it would seem. If they got off their asses they might have carried it. It's almost as if they don't really care, as if it makes no difference since they get paid either way.
I do not think you get paid if you are not actually elected.
But aside from that, if we want Dems to run in every election, we need to get people to step up and run I am thinking. Democrats can't make anyone do that.
So, does this mean we can stop shitting on the kids brave enough to risk beatings, tasers and 9 hours in zip ties, and Trump will still lose?
I think that, once again, women will save us, this time because they are rightly scared and they’re angry that they’re scared. I also believe there’s a lot of people who are sick of polls and pollers to the extent that their only response will be “No, I won’t you tell what I think, asshole, fuck off” (though some will do so more politely).
I also think that the GOP’s sleazebags and/or crazy people will lose in significant numbers. Their convention will resemble a cross between a CPAC meeting and a conspiracy event even more than their usual rah-rah batshit festival, and it will be noted for its intraparty cannibalism. I mean, I can’t wait for them to give Mark Robinson an evening speaking slot. And Trump will steal all the down-ballot money for his own campaign and legal bills.
Further, Biden will destroy Trump to the extent that only one debate will occur—maybe.
Right now, my biggest fear is a Biden medical emergency or something that the right will frame as such, along with election interference hijinks, an abrupt downturn in the economy, or another big shooting war breaking out. If none of these things happen, the GOP will, in desperation, turn to the “Joe is old and Kamala is black” strategery. This will be counterproductive.
Wild card: NOAA predicts an exceptionally active hurricane season.
I think you're right. We can never be certain what wicked thing this way comes -- there's always room for surprises. But on the whole, I would not like my chances if I were a Republican in 2024. I also think huge numbers of Republican women (and some men) are going to vote against those who are responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. The GOP and the Christo-Fascist SCOTUS have turned reproductive rights into a single-issue affair when it comes to voting. It wasn't that before, but now, I believe, it is.
i predict felon don will dodge the debate by demanding that Biden also take a drug test, as you know donnie is required to be tested as a convicted felon … he’s already hinted at this before he was convicted … now he can dodge the debate bullet by capitalizing on the humiliation of his own pre-sentencing protocols …
A cat-5 storm on Merde a Lardo would be interesting. I'd be amused to see the Orange Moron confronting the gods and goddesses of the winds. The Abrahamic god is just a poseur, like the PAB. The pagan gods reflect reality
nuke it!
Haven’t the poor staff been through enough?
They should get out while they can
I MUST watch that series about Mayor Pete and the great train hazmat drag runway!
Eye on the ball.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtRWeaBQZGE
Dad deserved that!
Wish I’d known more about this race beforehand. I might have thrown Kripchik a few bucks.
I suggest signing up with Postcards to Voters. They will let you know about local races and special elections. I sent a few cards for Kripchak.
Another way of saying that Biden is old is to say that he's a survivor. That's a good thing.
"It's just a flesh wound"
-GOP
I'm wondering if this signifies that Democrats have an advantage among motivated voters--special elections are low-turnout games, and typically only the most motivated voters show up. If that's the case, maybe Biden would be better off if turnout is low this fall, and the "double haters" could end up staying home.
Wouldn't that be something if every Republican measure to depress voting worked against them?
Lower turnout does not actually help Democrats. We have lots of proof about this
The felon has a remarkable ability to unite his opposition.
Smart people tell me that Trump's uglyness turns off many Republicans.
So that might be something.
I know a lot of republicans who dislike Trump and are appalled at his behavior
But. And there is always the big butt
They will still vote for him anyway because they could never ever vote for a democrat
Oh, a lot of them agree he's awful. But who gives a shit if it means a big tax cut and nobody making them feel bad for driving an $80,000, jacked-up diesel truck that gets 4 mpg?
"sure, Donald Trump is a piece of shit. but he won't get on my ass if i roll coal!"
I totally mis-read this headline and thought it was bad for the Dems. Thanks, Evan, for giving me hope that our people will break free from these absolute nutjobs. FTR, I believe we need both sides. It's good for discourse and being more balanced, WHEN the other side learns how to compromise. However, compromise seems to have gone the way of the horse and buggy in our politics and it's exhausting and demoralizing to see any batshit grandstanding lunatic hoping for their 15 minutes winning office. I want them all to crawl back under the slimy rocks they came from.
I think we can talk about compromise and balance after the GQP, or whatever replaces it as "conservative", stops trying to undo every good act that's passed in our lifetimes, and maybe even our parents' lifetimes.
Deal!
I am cautiously optimistic. Incumbents aren’t doing well and people are dumb and forget that trump was an incumbent and we sent his ass home. He takes credit for things Biden does and although team Biden pushes back, I worry that people will blame him and give trump credit. I am a worry wart though. I also have a weird feeling that trump will fuxk something up