"The article cautions that for the candidates’ announced policies to actually be enacted, Congress would have to pass legislation that wouldn’t get thrown out of court."
Did they forget that SCOTUS has promoted Trump to emperor, and he can fill the courts and every other section of government with anyone he likes? Members of Congress will still need to be elected, for now, but it's only a matter of time before Mango Mussolini does away with that.
These economists are playing with fantasy projections.
a) Trump is not going to round up 11 million people. H is going to fukk with as many people as he can in the most brutal ways to make it look like that is happening, and that will satisfy the base.
b) He is not going to place any tariffs on anything, certainly not across-the-board.
Trump's plans are for consumption by the rubes. He will do terrible things, just not as promised.
It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week... The eyeless creature at the other table swallowed it fanatically. passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grams.
i suspect mass deportation of an irreplaceable labor force might increase pricing on things.
i also suspect doubling the price of any and all vehicles not made entirely in the US might cause some issues too. this is a thing he said he planned to do on day one.
The problem with immigration is that as often as Dems champion it, they’re pretty clueless about how it works. It is a notoriously Byzantine system that has suffered under self-policing and poorly written legislation for decades (this is one of the few places Chevron’s demise might do some good). And it’s not just “asylum” or “border.” I know most Americans don’t have the time or capacity for nuance, but Biden’s team has been slow to create solutions or narratives that show how effective temporary statuses for migrants would be in terms of the investment it would represent in taxes and social security. Imagine hundreds of thousands willingly paying into a system that they will never use (ss) or the immediate boost to local coffers. With a much bigger and faster rollout of temporary employment authorizations, NYC could have spun “migrant crisis” in “tax bonanza.” Instead, we’re constantly fighting over the southern border.
For those of us who don't know much about immigration law, how much power does the executive branch have, in the current judicial climate, to do what you advocate? It's not as though the Dreamers aren't a boon to our communities and our economy, but we all know that there have been court fights over them that have put a crimp in the expansion of the program.
The Dreamers/DACA is a little different, but it was an attempt to reconcile lack of “status” with an ability to remain/work in the US for individuals who are as essentially “American” as anybody else - whatever that means. The Biden admin could def issue an EO prioritizing and/or expanding issuance of employment authorizations for migrants. I suspect they could get pretty creative by encouraging some quiet internal policy changes at USCIS as well to help fast track movement and minimize requests for evidence and give the Service more discretion to approve cases. They have not. If anything, USCIS is more fucked up then I’ve seen it in the last 10 years, and that follows the imposition of a $300-$600 surcharge on the majority of employment based immigration applications called the “Asylum Program Fee.” And it ain’t like this admin has been going out of its way to sell asylum to most Americans. Ultimately this is something that requires a legislative solution since the courts tend to have little to with immigration law. But again, that might change following the neutering of Chevron. I’d also love to see the admin pushing some honest portrayals of how hard it can be to come to counter the coyote/”porous border” bullshit that the MSM loves to throw out during election season for sport.
"...individuals who are as essentially “American” as anybody else - whatever that means."
It means people whose only meaningful connections are here, they speak English, they would not know what to do if you set them down in a barrio in San Salvador, they are going to school, they joined the military.
We know others may have differing notions of this.
Does the other decision regarding the powers of administrative law judges affect anything? For example, does someone facing deportation have at least as much right to an Article 3 judge and a jury as does someone facing a fine for securities law violations? I took administrative law for some reason, but it's not as though I've done anything with it in the 40+ years since.
"Does the other decision regarding the powers of administrative law judges affect anything?" Not if the right-wing Justices don't want it to.
"For example, does someone facing deportation have at least as much right to an Article 3 judge and a jury as does someone facing a fine for securities law violations?" Do you think Alito and Kavanaugh and Thomas get any "gratuities" from people facing deportation, the way they do from people who play fast and loose with securities laws? If not, why do you think they would vote for deportees having any rights.
"I took administrative law for some reason" Everything you were taught was overruled in the past couple weeks anyhow.
Assuming that the 44% of economists who forecast inflation being lower or the same under Trump are giving honest opinions and not pro-Trump gaslighting, one has to wonder why they think that. Trump's mass deportation fantasy would obviously drastically contract the labor supply, driving up prices.
The only large opposing effect would be an increase in the supply of housing. Housing prices have such a large effect on inflation that even a small decrease can offset an awful lot of other stuff.
Not only does MASS DEPORTATIONS seem like an awful high price to pay for slightly lower housing prices, let me just remind people that any increase in the housing supply will just be quickly snapped up by rapacious Private Equity. Which of course Trump knows, real estate is the only thing he has any expertise in.
zero chance any freed up housing would be purchased by individuals.
until we fix that major issue the actual supply of housing is meaningless. corporations shouldn't own single family housing at all and should be heavily limited on apartments / condos.
a cap on individuals should happen as well honestly. you can own 2 houses max and both have to be owner occupied for at least 150 days a year. any houses more than 2 will have heavily increasing property taxes. 3rd house = 100% property tax. 4th? 150% etc etc.
They're likely assuming that he's just talking shit, and won't implement any of that. After all, in his last term he wasn't able to stop immigration until the pandemic, and by the time his tariffs took effect, he was out of office, then we had inflation right after that....
That would be an incredibly stupid mistake. MAGA has had four years to solidify, purge dissenters and identify their mistakes. Trump will have a large cadre of capable, true believer administrators this time around, and a well-thought out plan of how to circumvent opposition.
Hell, what Trump wants or doesn't want isn't really factor, either. Contrary to popular belief, fascist/Nazi government was not and never was a top-down system. It was a thousand little mini-Fuhrers deciding and implementing on their own what they though the Fuhrer wanted, or what was convenient for them to claim he wanted. That's how this shit works. The only thing that prevented this last time is that they didn't actually believe they'd win and were not ready when they did. They won't make that mistake again.
If they attempt to implement their grand plan, they will collapse the Federal Government. You seem to be totally ignorant of the effects of major personnel changes on an ongoing operation, which is what the Federal Government is. The very fact that their "grand plan" is a nearly thousand pages of fantasy shows just how practical they are. It's got about as much chance of being implemented as the 13 year old jerking off to a skin mag has of sleeping with the centerfold.
True. But the consequences would be very different from the machine-like imposition of a flawless fascist tyranny that some people seem to be fantasizing. I am certainly not saying that the consequences wouldn't be bad, bad, BAD.
You underestimate the dedication and sense of duty federal employees have. They'll hate it, but they'll prop it up anyway, because the alternative would be worse.
But fine. Keep it up, never mind that people thinking that a miracle will save us, so we don't need to worry is what got us here in the first place. Oh yeah, and America is SPECIAL, and the shit that happens everywhere else can't happen here.
You don't seem to realize that what you said is irrelevant. Perhaps you ought to read a book entitled The Mythical Man-Month, which talks about this problem in the context of software development. In that case, it was found repeatedly that any attempt to bring large numbers of new staff into an ongoing project would bring the entire thing to a grinding halt. Trump has promised to FIRE the people who are working now and REPLACE them with Liberty U. grads. Let's not even get into whether he can find enough of that species to do it; if he emptied the departments of the "deep state" and filled them with his own mooks, it would be doubtful if they would even be able to find the bathrooms. Project 2025 is almost literally a piece of insanity, an onanistic fantasy as unreal as the thoughts going through a 13 year old boy's head as he jacks off to a skin mag centerfold. And it has about as much chance of being implemented as that boy would have of sleeping with the centerfold.
You are trying to argue that the constraints of reality will deter people who generally reject any reality they don't like, and don't care about any damage they'll do even if they do fail.
Either that, or you're saying that it doesn't matter if they try because they're doomed to fail. Which, again, totally disregards the damage and real-world harm to their victims they'll inflict as it all comes crashing down.
A mass deportation and 10% tariff would be a double hit on food prices, the main source of inflation lies by the GOP. Like Trump saying the price of bacon quadrupling under Biden. When is the last time Trump bought bacon? The reason for this is simple. Removing many of the people who pick crops, work in dairy operations, and meat and poultry processing plants would reduce the supply, raising prices due to shortages cause by lack of labor. That will increase demand for imported food items, which would have a 10% tariff. Raising prices even more. But as I mentioned in other comments, grocery prices have only increased 1.1% in the past 12 months. Basically the ideal inflation level the Fed likes to see.
Prices at the grocery store and gas prices are what the red state diners the NYT always visit complain about but grocery prices are not a problem and in the July BLS report, gas prices are down from 12 months ago. If they are so pressed for money maybe they should fix breakfast at home, saving money on food and gas. But then they would miss out on the latest gossip from Newsmax.
Everything you say is true. Food prices have been all over the place. Lots of spikes. The long-term result is that they're up, but not by that much, not enough to account for the real inflation rate over the past couple of years. It's mostly being driven by increased housing costs. And one of the arguments being made by the deportation stans is that it will make more housing available. But that won't drive housing costs down. Although we do need more housing, the real driver of higher housing costs is private equity buying everything they can get their hands on and then jacking up rents in the wake of the artificial shortage they're creating.
Not that I disagree with you in any way. There are a gazillion ways Trump’s “policies” would be an economic disaster and finalize the divide between the ownership class and the working poor, with nothing in between. That's a FEATURE, not a bug.
Man it's hard for economists to agree on anything. I'm shocked, but as everyone keeps rightfully pointing out. Donald Trump is a black hole where money goes to die.
"The article cautions that for the candidates’ announced policies to actually be enacted, Congress would have to pass legislation that wouldn’t get thrown out of court."
Did they forget that SCOTUS has promoted Trump to emperor, and he can fill the courts and every other section of government with anyone he likes? Members of Congress will still need to be elected, for now, but it's only a matter of time before Mango Mussolini does away with that.
"What is good, Conan?"
"To drive your political opponents before you, and hear the laments of their economists."
These economists are playing with fantasy projections.
a) Trump is not going to round up 11 million people. H is going to fukk with as many people as he can in the most brutal ways to make it look like that is happening, and that will satisfy the base.
b) He is not going to place any tariffs on anything, certainly not across-the-board.
Trump's plans are for consumption by the rubes. He will do terrible things, just not as promised.
It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week... The eyeless creature at the other table swallowed it fanatically. passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grams.
Under the spreading chestnut tree, I stole your ira, and you defrauded me...
Well, if it quacks like a duck...
Its right there for all you sheeple to see!
Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group.
Bernard Baumohl, chief global conomist at the Economic Outlook Group.
Bernard Baumohl, chief global onomist at the Economic Outlook Group.
Bernard Baumohl, chief global nomist at the Economic Outlook Group.
Bernard Baumohl, chief global omist at the Economic Outlook Group.
Bernard Baumohl, chief global mist at the Economic Outlook Group.
Bernard Baumohl, chief global ist at the Economic Outlook Group.
Bernard Baumohl, chief globalist at the Economic Outlook Group.
"...All these things, if not quite beyond dispute, are yet so nearly certain that no philosophy that rejects them can hope to stand..."
- Bertrand Russell, "A Free Man's Worship "
"Bernard Baumohl, chief global mist at the Economic Outlook Group."
Stop there. "Mist" is German for "manure."
Ta, Dok. Economists are lucky to have jobs.
Economics is very interesting, IMO. Economists get the same bad rap as meteorologists, in my view. The social sciences are not a crystal ball.
Thank you so much Doc for using "champing at the bit" correctly. It's one of my grammar Nazi pet peeves, alonside "hoist WITH one's own petard."
You could say either "by" or "with" in that case, what's the cavil?
i suspect mass deportation of an irreplaceable labor force might increase pricing on things.
i also suspect doubling the price of any and all vehicles not made entirely in the US might cause some issues too. this is a thing he said he planned to do on day one.
"The remainder saw no material difference." I'm curious about those twelve...
Apostles of equanimity.
Noice.
like
Baumohl was among 68 “professional forecasters from business, Wall Street and academia” who participated in the poll.
Welp, I know 68 economists who are going to be getting death threats for the rest of their lives.
Good. "Let 'em get some skin in the game."
- Dok Zoom
They're economists, they're used to it.
The problem with immigration is that as often as Dems champion it, they’re pretty clueless about how it works. It is a notoriously Byzantine system that has suffered under self-policing and poorly written legislation for decades (this is one of the few places Chevron’s demise might do some good). And it’s not just “asylum” or “border.” I know most Americans don’t have the time or capacity for nuance, but Biden’s team has been slow to create solutions or narratives that show how effective temporary statuses for migrants would be in terms of the investment it would represent in taxes and social security. Imagine hundreds of thousands willingly paying into a system that they will never use (ss) or the immediate boost to local coffers. With a much bigger and faster rollout of temporary employment authorizations, NYC could have spun “migrant crisis” in “tax bonanza.” Instead, we’re constantly fighting over the southern border.
For those of us who don't know much about immigration law, how much power does the executive branch have, in the current judicial climate, to do what you advocate? It's not as though the Dreamers aren't a boon to our communities and our economy, but we all know that there have been court fights over them that have put a crimp in the expansion of the program.
The Dreamers/DACA is a little different, but it was an attempt to reconcile lack of “status” with an ability to remain/work in the US for individuals who are as essentially “American” as anybody else - whatever that means. The Biden admin could def issue an EO prioritizing and/or expanding issuance of employment authorizations for migrants. I suspect they could get pretty creative by encouraging some quiet internal policy changes at USCIS as well to help fast track movement and minimize requests for evidence and give the Service more discretion to approve cases. They have not. If anything, USCIS is more fucked up then I’ve seen it in the last 10 years, and that follows the imposition of a $300-$600 surcharge on the majority of employment based immigration applications called the “Asylum Program Fee.” And it ain’t like this admin has been going out of its way to sell asylum to most Americans. Ultimately this is something that requires a legislative solution since the courts tend to have little to with immigration law. But again, that might change following the neutering of Chevron. I’d also love to see the admin pushing some honest portrayals of how hard it can be to come to counter the coyote/”porous border” bullshit that the MSM loves to throw out during election season for sport.
"...individuals who are as essentially “American” as anybody else - whatever that means."
It means people whose only meaningful connections are here, they speak English, they would not know what to do if you set them down in a barrio in San Salvador, they are going to school, they joined the military.
We know others may have differing notions of this.
Does the other decision regarding the powers of administrative law judges affect anything? For example, does someone facing deportation have at least as much right to an Article 3 judge and a jury as does someone facing a fine for securities law violations? I took administrative law for some reason, but it's not as though I've done anything with it in the 40+ years since.
"Does the other decision regarding the powers of administrative law judges affect anything?" Not if the right-wing Justices don't want it to.
"For example, does someone facing deportation have at least as much right to an Article 3 judge and a jury as does someone facing a fine for securities law violations?" Do you think Alito and Kavanaugh and Thomas get any "gratuities" from people facing deportation, the way they do from people who play fast and loose with securities laws? If not, why do you think they would vote for deportees having any rights.
"I took administrative law for some reason" Everything you were taught was overruled in the past couple weeks anyhow.
'"I took administrative law for some reason" Everything you were taught was overruled in the past couple weeks anyhow.'
So glad I studied fin-de-siècle German literature!
Interesting that People magazine dropped Project 2025 in their pages. THAT should get anyone off the fence right there.
As stated downstream, he was back up golfing so how badly could he have been hurt? Do the RWNJ's now feel like he is Lazarus rising from the dead?
This too shall pass in the news cycle.
It is a pretty extensive article, too.
Not if The Martyr-in-Chief has anything to say about it.
Assuming that the 44% of economists who forecast inflation being lower or the same under Trump are giving honest opinions and not pro-Trump gaslighting, one has to wonder why they think that. Trump's mass deportation fantasy would obviously drastically contract the labor supply, driving up prices.
The only large opposing effect would be an increase in the supply of housing. Housing prices have such a large effect on inflation that even a small decrease can offset an awful lot of other stuff.
Not only does MASS DEPORTATIONS seem like an awful high price to pay for slightly lower housing prices, let me just remind people that any increase in the housing supply will just be quickly snapped up by rapacious Private Equity. Which of course Trump knows, real estate is the only thing he has any expertise in.
It's another giveaway to the plutocrats.
zero chance any freed up housing would be purchased by individuals.
until we fix that major issue the actual supply of housing is meaningless. corporations shouldn't own single family housing at all and should be heavily limited on apartments / condos.
a cap on individuals should happen as well honestly. you can own 2 houses max and both have to be owner occupied for at least 150 days a year. any houses more than 2 will have heavily increasing property taxes. 3rd house = 100% property tax. 4th? 150% etc etc.
They're likely assuming that he's just talking shit, and won't implement any of that. After all, in his last term he wasn't able to stop immigration until the pandemic, and by the time his tariffs took effect, he was out of office, then we had inflation right after that....
That would be an incredibly stupid mistake. MAGA has had four years to solidify, purge dissenters and identify their mistakes. Trump will have a large cadre of capable, true believer administrators this time around, and a well-thought out plan of how to circumvent opposition.
Hell, what Trump wants or doesn't want isn't really factor, either. Contrary to popular belief, fascist/Nazi government was not and never was a top-down system. It was a thousand little mini-Fuhrers deciding and implementing on their own what they though the Fuhrer wanted, or what was convenient for them to claim he wanted. That's how this shit works. The only thing that prevented this last time is that they didn't actually believe they'd win and were not ready when they did. They won't make that mistake again.
like
If they attempt to implement their grand plan, they will collapse the Federal Government. You seem to be totally ignorant of the effects of major personnel changes on an ongoing operation, which is what the Federal Government is. The very fact that their "grand plan" is a nearly thousand pages of fantasy shows just how practical they are. It's got about as much chance of being implemented as the 13 year old jerking off to a skin mag has of sleeping with the centerfold.
"If they attempt to implement their grand plan, they will collapse the Federal Government."
This does not mean they won't do it.
True. But the consequences would be very different from the machine-like imposition of a flawless fascist tyranny that some people seem to be fantasizing. I am certainly not saying that the consequences wouldn't be bad, bad, BAD.
Agreed.
You underestimate the dedication and sense of duty federal employees have. They'll hate it, but they'll prop it up anyway, because the alternative would be worse.
But fine. Keep it up, never mind that people thinking that a miracle will save us, so we don't need to worry is what got us here in the first place. Oh yeah, and America is SPECIAL, and the shit that happens everywhere else can't happen here.
I appreciate this discussion from both pf you.
You don't seem to realize that what you said is irrelevant. Perhaps you ought to read a book entitled The Mythical Man-Month, which talks about this problem in the context of software development. In that case, it was found repeatedly that any attempt to bring large numbers of new staff into an ongoing project would bring the entire thing to a grinding halt. Trump has promised to FIRE the people who are working now and REPLACE them with Liberty U. grads. Let's not even get into whether he can find enough of that species to do it; if he emptied the departments of the "deep state" and filled them with his own mooks, it would be doubtful if they would even be able to find the bathrooms. Project 2025 is almost literally a piece of insanity, an onanistic fantasy as unreal as the thoughts going through a 13 year old boy's head as he jacks off to a skin mag centerfold. And it has about as much chance of being implemented as that boy would have of sleeping with the centerfold.
You are trying to argue that the constraints of reality will deter people who generally reject any reality they don't like, and don't care about any damage they'll do even if they do fail.
Either that, or you're saying that it doesn't matter if they try because they're doomed to fail. Which, again, totally disregards the damage and real-world harm to their victims they'll inflict as it all comes crashing down.
I appreciate this discussion from both pf you.
A mass deportation and 10% tariff would be a double hit on food prices, the main source of inflation lies by the GOP. Like Trump saying the price of bacon quadrupling under Biden. When is the last time Trump bought bacon? The reason for this is simple. Removing many of the people who pick crops, work in dairy operations, and meat and poultry processing plants would reduce the supply, raising prices due to shortages cause by lack of labor. That will increase demand for imported food items, which would have a 10% tariff. Raising prices even more. But as I mentioned in other comments, grocery prices have only increased 1.1% in the past 12 months. Basically the ideal inflation level the Fed likes to see.
Prices at the grocery store and gas prices are what the red state diners the NYT always visit complain about but grocery prices are not a problem and in the July BLS report, gas prices are down from 12 months ago. If they are so pressed for money maybe they should fix breakfast at home, saving money on food and gas. But then they would miss out on the latest gossip from Newsmax.
Produce rotting in the fields is a contributor to climate change too.
Everything you say is true. Food prices have been all over the place. Lots of spikes. The long-term result is that they're up, but not by that much, not enough to account for the real inflation rate over the past couple of years. It's mostly being driven by increased housing costs. And one of the arguments being made by the deportation stans is that it will make more housing available. But that won't drive housing costs down. Although we do need more housing, the real driver of higher housing costs is private equity buying everything they can get their hands on and then jacking up rents in the wake of the artificial shortage they're creating.
Not that I disagree with you in any way. There are a gazillion ways Trump’s “policies” would be an economic disaster and finalize the divide between the ownership class and the working poor, with nothing in between. That's a FEATURE, not a bug.
I get at least one mass-mailing per week offering to buy my house.
Man it's hard for economists to agree on anything. I'm shocked, but as everyone keeps rightfully pointing out. Donald Trump is a black hole where money goes to die.
One glance at PAB’s history of running businesses should disqualify him from doing anything financial.
It absolutely SHOULD.
What appalls me on the daily is the number of Americans -- not all of them Republicans -- for whom it DOES NOT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E63i3wRSbcY&list=PLRl4XDBfORqixBhM9J_X8xATH4SMZXrQg&index=95&pp=iAQB
I’m glad to see that Deutsche Bank is seeking revenge on the orange deadbeat.
I would rather "Deutsche Folterwerkzeuge."