Haunted house in Baltimore. Teens break in for fun and it's part of some Larry Hogan sponsored program to criminalize race. Free idea. Someone steal it.
"If you have ever felt that there was some organized group of others controlling everything, you may be a Trump supporter."
That's just stupid. An organized group controlling everything is the only reason the polls are remotely close. I wish his fat-clogged heart would hurry up and explode already.
Chilling analysis of the polling by Andrew Mangan at Kos, noting that Trump beat his polls twice in the last two elections----if he beats the polls again in 2024, he's potentially headed for a landslide. Harris's victory would depend on a level of accuracy in the polls that didn't exist in 2016 or 2020, plus massive unpredicted Democratic turnout. Mangan writes,
In 2016, Democrats headed into Election Day confident they’d win the White House. Many election forecasts were confident of that. But of course, that's not what happened. Donald Trump landed on the lucky side of a normal polling error.
In 2020, the polls were off by even more, but it's easy not to dwell on that since Joe Biden won.
Four years ago, Biden led Trump by over 10 percentage points in mid-October, according to 538’s national polling average. As the election drew nearer, Biden even saw his margin in some swing-state polls hit double digits, such as when The New York Times/Siena College—arguably the country’s best pollster—showed Biden leading by 11 points in Wisconsin.
But Biden went on to win the Badger State by just 0.6 points. And his national popular-vote lead? Barely over 4 points, and roughly half of the 8.4-point polling lead he had on Election Day.
Eh. I looked at what Rasmussen's poll numbers were for Biden and Trump at this time in the election in 2020. They had Trump up 48 to 47%. That same poll now has Trump up 49 to 47% over Harris. If course, Trump lost. Because he and his people are lazy and wont turn out the vote.
And trans panic ads, PAB's "Willie Horton". Making a deal about Harris supporting trans care for prisoners etc. Her team needs to come up with an answer to them. Something along the lines of "republicans, punching down, this time on kids and the doctors that care for them"
Hmmm all of this isn't taking into account Russian and chinese fuckery. Not to mention we know factually that the GOP is fucking with the polls. Honestly at this point, a tasseomancy session would be just as accurate as a poll.
Until polls release their data and methods for peer review, they are nothing more than fiction. Fiction can turn out to be correct, but it will always be fiction.
Golf icon Arnold Palmer was “appalled” by former president Donald Trump, who weirdly started boasting about Palmer’s genitals at a campaign rally Saturday, and “couldn’t believe the crudeness” of the Republican nominee for president, according to his family.
Peg told The Sporting News her father appreciated Trump’s support for the game of golf and participated in charity fundraisers and other events at Trump golf courses. But once Trump ran for office, she said, it became clear to him he wanted no part of Trump’s politics.
“My dad had no patience for people who demean other people in public,” she added. “He had no patience for people who are dishonest and cheat. My dad was disciplined. He wanted to be a good role model. He was appalled by Trump’s lack of civility and what he began to see as Trump’s lack of character.”
Assigned Cute posted about ice in drinks and it reminded me of things I thought and still think that are weird about US food and beverages
Unsweetened Iced Tea- where to begin? This drives me nuts
Tea is naturally unsweetened. The choice should be regular or sweetened.
Cream for desserts
Early on in our lives here I asked for cream for my apple pie. I was given a jug of milk. Cream is thicker than milk so it is easy to tell the difference. I now know it was half and half ( a thing that doesnt exist in the UK).
It's mildly depressing (okay, acutely depressing) to note that while the Sunday shows have invited on people like Lindsey Graham and Chris Sununu to tell us why no good Republican would vote for Harris, they don't seem to have invited on Republicans making the point that no good Republican could vote for anyone else.
The great untold story of the 2024 election (the failure of the mainstream press to tell it is tragically consequential) is the grand pro-democracy coalition that rose up in this country over the last twelve months.
Ranging from pretty far right to pretty far left, Republicans and Democrats, conservative independents and progressive independents, this grand coalition could have been---but has not been---the focus of some really good, probing journalism that would have asked all the questions that matter most.
Instead, this morning NBC's Kristen Welker got Lindsey Graham to preen and swank about declaring that voting for Harris is a "crap" move because everything is terrible under the Democrats and everything will be wonderful under Trump (Welker did the "thoughtful nod" they're trained to do at TV journalism school), and ABC got Chris Sununu to suggest that Trump will make everyone's lives better, so just ignore the coarse language and embrace those tariffs.
If only the story of the pro-democracy coalition had been told by the national press, it might have had a positive impact: at the very least, it would have had the benefit of being a true story about the civic obligations of democracy, and it might even have allowed some truthful reporting about Biden's achievements and the real state of the economy.
Instead, we got polls, white diner interviews, and corrupt Republican politicians interviewed fawningly by their press assets---network newsreaders whose artfully crafted questions and selection of guests makes it impossible to have a conversation about democracy and policy.
Eric Alterman noted a quarter of a century ago in his book What Liberal Media? The Truth About Bias And The News, that there is indeed bias in the Beltway press: immense and consequential bias----only it's to the right, not to the left, and it's good for a two or three point swing in the vote, perhaps even a little more.
In a closely divided electorate, that two or three point swing can make all the difference.
In this election that two or three point swing will make the difference between the survival of US democracy versus our descent into Trump Republicanism--racist, kleptocratic, cruel. Watching the networks nudge Trump toward victory is beyond horrifying.
Feeling a bit stiff this morning. Don't know whether it's the covid vax from yesterday or just old man stuff, but I'm going to use it as an excuse to fuck off the day despite it's not really bad.
It's mildly depressing (okay, acutely depressing) to note that while the Sunday shows have invited on people like Lindsey Graham and Chris Sununu to tell us why no good Republican would vote for Harris, they don't seem to have invited on Republicans making the point that no good Republican could vote for anyone else.
The great untold story of the 2024 election (the failure of the mainstream press to tell it is tragically consequential) is the grand pro-democracy coalition that rose up in this country over the last twelve months.
Ranging from pretty far right to pretty far left, Republicans and Democrats, conservative independents and progressive independents, this grand coalition could have been---but has not been---the focus of some really good, probing journalism that would have asked all the questions that matter most.
Instead, this morning NBC's Kristen Welker got Lindsey Graham to preen and swank about declaring that voting for Harris is a "crap" move because everything is terrible under the Democrats and everything will be wonderful under Trump (Welker did the "thoughtful nod" they're trained to do at TV journalism school), and ABC got Chris Sununu to suggest that Trump will make everyone's lives better, so just ignore the coarse language and embrace those tariffs.
If only the story of the pro-democracy coalition had been told by the national press, it might have had a positive impact: at the very least, it would have had the benefit of being a true story about the civic obligations of democracy, and it might even have allowed some truthful reporting about Biden's achievements and the real state of the economy.
Instead, we got polls, white diner interviews, and corrupt Republican politicians interviewed fawningly by their press assets---network newsreaders whose artfully crafted questions and selection of guests makes it impossible to have a conversation about democracy and policy.
Eric Alterman noted a quarter of a century ago in his book What Liberal Media? The Truth About Bias And The News, that there is indeed bias in the Beltway press: immense and consequential bias----only it's to the right, not to the left, and it's good for a two or three point swing in the vote, perhaps even a little more.
In a closely divided electorate, that two or three point swing can make all the difference.
In this election that two or three point swing will make the difference between the survival of US democracy versus our descent into Trump Republicanism--racist, kleptocratic, cruel. Watching the networks nudge Trump toward victory is beyond horrifying.
Noah is absolutely and entirely accurate. For me listening to a different language is a lot like listening to music. Before I learn the words to a song I need to have a grasp of its' melody. I've found learning a different language to be the same.
I like to refer to Portland as Mayberry Portland for the frequency of bumping into folks in the strangest places.
During staging for canvassing yesterday we’re milling about as things are getting going and a woman asks if I want to canvass with her for the day. I have been going alone, but sure. I suggest that we step aside to talk over how we canvass to get on the same page. We’re talking, she asks if I canvassed the day before, I say naw. You look familiar she says. Oh. She figures it out after awhile. We worked together at an extreme weather shelter last winter. The one that lost power. This canvassing site is far from that shelter site. Mayberry Portland. Dang I LOVE those bump-ins.
One of the weirdest coincidences happened to me in the early 1980s. I had a job in NC with about six small offices and cubicles in the corner of the fifth floor of a building. I knew one of my co-workers went to high school about ten miles away from where I went over ten years earlier. We started talking and heard a voice from the next office saying "xxxx high school, I went there!" Then a voice from another office "I did too!" Turns out one graduated the year before I did, the other the same year, although he only went there his senior year. With over 1800 students it was not odd I wouldn't know them, but it was strange we all ended up in a small cluster of offices 300 miles away from our high school, and another was from a nearby high school my sister attended for a year while my high school was being built.
Thanks everyone! Scary good fun. Next week is a really good one that flew under the radar. 𝐓𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐤 '𝐫 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭. https://open.substack.com/pub/ziggywiggy/p/wonkette-movie-night-oct-26-trick?r=2knfuc&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
PLUS an Oct. 31st special event. 𝐇𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐇𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧! Starting at 7pm ET.
Trick R Treat effin’ rules! SKIPPY!!
Wait. Has someone made "Cabin in the Hood"?
Haunted house in Baltimore. Teens break in for fun and it's part of some Larry Hogan sponsored program to criminalize race. Free idea. Someone steal it.
"If you have ever felt that there was some organized group of others controlling everything, you may be a Trump supporter."
That's just stupid. An organized group controlling everything is the only reason the polls are remotely close. I wish his fat-clogged heart would hurry up and explode already.
It's one of my faves.
Joss Whedon was cancelled for some good reasons, but Neil Gaiman seems to be skating for far worse
Chilling analysis of the polling by Andrew Mangan at Kos, noting that Trump beat his polls twice in the last two elections----if he beats the polls again in 2024, he's potentially headed for a landslide. Harris's victory would depend on a level of accuracy in the polls that didn't exist in 2016 or 2020, plus massive unpredicted Democratic turnout. Mangan writes,
In 2016, Democrats headed into Election Day confident they’d win the White House. Many election forecasts were confident of that. But of course, that's not what happened. Donald Trump landed on the lucky side of a normal polling error.
In 2020, the polls were off by even more, but it's easy not to dwell on that since Joe Biden won.
Four years ago, Biden led Trump by over 10 percentage points in mid-October, according to 538’s national polling average. As the election drew nearer, Biden even saw his margin in some swing-state polls hit double digits, such as when The New York Times/Siena College—arguably the country’s best pollster—showed Biden leading by 11 points in Wisconsin.
But Biden went on to win the Badger State by just 0.6 points. And his national popular-vote lead? Barely over 4 points, and roughly half of the 8.4-point polling lead he had on Election Day.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/20/2277307/-Trump-beat-his-polls-twice-and-it-could-happen-again?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
Eh. I looked at what Rasmussen's poll numbers were for Biden and Trump at this time in the election in 2020. They had Trump up 48 to 47%. That same poll now has Trump up 49 to 47% over Harris. If course, Trump lost. Because he and his people are lazy and wont turn out the vote.
2022: RED WAVE
The GQP is flooding the polling zone with shit.
And trans panic ads, PAB's "Willie Horton". Making a deal about Harris supporting trans care for prisoners etc. Her team needs to come up with an answer to them. Something along the lines of "republicans, punching down, this time on kids and the doctors that care for them"
INSHALLAH
Hmmm all of this isn't taking into account Russian and chinese fuckery. Not to mention we know factually that the GOP is fucking with the polls. Honestly at this point, a tasseomancy session would be just as accurate as a poll.
I have to believe the polling is even more shit than it was in 2020. We have record turnout already, like 3-4x what it was ever in history.
Polls can suck my dick.
And fuck 538, they are in the tank.
Until polls release their data and methods for peer review, they are nothing more than fiction. Fiction can turn out to be correct, but it will always be fiction.
Golf icon Arnold Palmer was “appalled” by former president Donald Trump, who weirdly started boasting about Palmer’s genitals at a campaign rally Saturday, and “couldn’t believe the crudeness” of the Republican nominee for president, according to his family.
Peg told The Sporting News her father appreciated Trump’s support for the game of golf and participated in charity fundraisers and other events at Trump golf courses. But once Trump ran for office, she said, it became clear to him he wanted no part of Trump’s politics.
“My dad had no patience for people who demean other people in public,” she added. “He had no patience for people who are dishonest and cheat. My dad was disciplined. He wanted to be a good role model. He was appalled by Trump’s lack of civility and what he began to see as Trump’s lack of character.”
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/arnold-palmer-appalled-crude-trump-135547487.html
WOW, very nice!
Assigned Cute posted about ice in drinks and it reminded me of things I thought and still think that are weird about US food and beverages
Unsweetened Iced Tea- where to begin? This drives me nuts
Tea is naturally unsweetened. The choice should be regular or sweetened.
Cream for desserts
Early on in our lives here I asked for cream for my apple pie. I was given a jug of milk. Cream is thicker than milk so it is easy to tell the difference. I now know it was half and half ( a thing that doesnt exist in the UK).
I loathe sweetened iced tea. I’m not even a fan of the flavored ones either.
Same here. And don't get that Splenda shit anywhere near me.
You're gonna hate me. I've got a pitcher of Splenda-sweetened tea steeping right now.
𝐇𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐳𝐞𝐧 𝐖𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐥𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐚 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤
𝑁𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 700 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑧𝑒𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑠, 𝑠𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑚 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑗𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒 𝐾𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑟, 𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑊𝑎𝑙𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑡, 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑛 𝐹𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝐿𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑐𝑦𝑡𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑠, 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑖𝑟 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑟.
𝐹𝑟𝑜𝑧𝑒𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑙𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑓 𝐾𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑟’𝑠 𝑆𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑇𝑟𝑢𝑡ℎ 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑙𝑒𝑠, 𝑇𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡’𝑠 𝐺𝑜𝑜𝑑 & 𝐺𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝐻𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑦𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑘 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑠, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑊𝑎𝑙𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑡’𝑠 𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐻𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑦𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦 𝑤𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑙𝑒𝑠.
.
What with all this listeria all of a sudden?
See, if we got rid of regulations things like this would never happen........
Listeria Hysteria?
MAGA syndrome.
It's mildly depressing (okay, acutely depressing) to note that while the Sunday shows have invited on people like Lindsey Graham and Chris Sununu to tell us why no good Republican would vote for Harris, they don't seem to have invited on Republicans making the point that no good Republican could vote for anyone else.
The great untold story of the 2024 election (the failure of the mainstream press to tell it is tragically consequential) is the grand pro-democracy coalition that rose up in this country over the last twelve months.
Ranging from pretty far right to pretty far left, Republicans and Democrats, conservative independents and progressive independents, this grand coalition could have been---but has not been---the focus of some really good, probing journalism that would have asked all the questions that matter most.
Instead, this morning NBC's Kristen Welker got Lindsey Graham to preen and swank about declaring that voting for Harris is a "crap" move because everything is terrible under the Democrats and everything will be wonderful under Trump (Welker did the "thoughtful nod" they're trained to do at TV journalism school), and ABC got Chris Sununu to suggest that Trump will make everyone's lives better, so just ignore the coarse language and embrace those tariffs.
If only the story of the pro-democracy coalition had been told by the national press, it might have had a positive impact: at the very least, it would have had the benefit of being a true story about the civic obligations of democracy, and it might even have allowed some truthful reporting about Biden's achievements and the real state of the economy.
Instead, we got polls, white diner interviews, and corrupt Republican politicians interviewed fawningly by their press assets---network newsreaders whose artfully crafted questions and selection of guests makes it impossible to have a conversation about democracy and policy.
Eric Alterman noted a quarter of a century ago in his book What Liberal Media? The Truth About Bias And The News, that there is indeed bias in the Beltway press: immense and consequential bias----only it's to the right, not to the left, and it's good for a two or three point swing in the vote, perhaps even a little more.
In a closely divided electorate, that two or three point swing can make all the difference.
In this election that two or three point swing will make the difference between the survival of US democracy versus our descent into Trump Republicanism--racist, kleptocratic, cruel. Watching the networks nudge Trump toward victory is beyond horrifying.
Feeling a bit stiff this morning. Don't know whether it's the covid vax from yesterday or just old man stuff, but I'm going to use it as an excuse to fuck off the day despite it's not really bad.
It's mildly depressing (okay, acutely depressing) to note that while the Sunday shows have invited on people like Lindsey Graham and Chris Sununu to tell us why no good Republican would vote for Harris, they don't seem to have invited on Republicans making the point that no good Republican could vote for anyone else.
The great untold story of the 2024 election (the failure of the mainstream press to tell it is tragically consequential) is the grand pro-democracy coalition that rose up in this country over the last twelve months.
Ranging from pretty far right to pretty far left, Republicans and Democrats, conservative independents and progressive independents, this grand coalition could have been---but has not been---the focus of some really good, probing journalism that would have asked all the questions that matter most.
Instead, this morning NBC's Kristen Welker got Lindsey Graham to preen and swank about declaring that voting for Harris is a "crap" move because everything is terrible under the Democrats and everything will be wonderful under Trump (Welker did the "thoughtful nod" they're trained to do at TV journalism school), and ABC got Chris Sununu to suggest that Trump will make everyone's lives better, so just ignore the coarse language and embrace those tariffs.
If only the story of the pro-democracy coalition had been told by the national press, it might have had a positive impact: at the very least, it would have had the benefit of being a true story about the civic obligations of democracy, and it might even have allowed some truthful reporting about Biden's achievements and the real state of the economy.
Instead, we got polls, white diner interviews, and corrupt Republican politicians interviewed fawningly by their press assets---network newsreaders whose artfully crafted questions and selection of guests makes it impossible to have a conversation about democracy and policy.
Eric Alterman noted a quarter of a century ago in his book What Liberal Media? The Truth About Bias And The News, that there is indeed bias in the Beltway press: immense and consequential bias----only it's to the right, not to the left, and it's good for a two or three point swing in the vote, perhaps even a little more.
In a closely divided electorate, that two or three point swing can make all the difference.
In this election that two or three point swing will make the difference between the survival of US democracy versus our descent into Trump Republicanism--racist, kleptocratic, cruel. Watching the networks nudge Trump toward victory is beyond horrifying.
Smoking pot, drinking coffee, and doing Legos. A perfect Sunday AM.
I could not possibly agree more.
The pipe is to my right and my Charles Darwin coffee mug to my immediate left.
Things That Drove You Nuts In A Movie Because You Know Something Most People Wouldn’t
In Blade Runner, Tyrell, who Sebastian describes as a very strong chess player, fails to see Batty’s mate-in-one *after it is played*.
Here's a fun thing: Trevor Noah's favorite accent.
https://youtu.be/qp4vlSOOnY4?si=4HGLHXKGQm8LI3Mx
Noah is absolutely and entirely accurate. For me listening to a different language is a lot like listening to music. Before I learn the words to a song I need to have a grasp of its' melody. I've found learning a different language to be the same.
I like to refer to Portland as Mayberry Portland for the frequency of bumping into folks in the strangest places.
During staging for canvassing yesterday we’re milling about as things are getting going and a woman asks if I want to canvass with her for the day. I have been going alone, but sure. I suggest that we step aside to talk over how we canvass to get on the same page. We’re talking, she asks if I canvassed the day before, I say naw. You look familiar she says. Oh. She figures it out after awhile. We worked together at an extreme weather shelter last winter. The one that lost power. This canvassing site is far from that shelter site. Mayberry Portland. Dang I LOVE those bump-ins.
One of the weirdest coincidences happened to me in the early 1980s. I had a job in NC with about six small offices and cubicles in the corner of the fifth floor of a building. I knew one of my co-workers went to high school about ten miles away from where I went over ten years earlier. We started talking and heard a voice from the next office saying "xxxx high school, I went there!" Then a voice from another office "I did too!" Turns out one graduated the year before I did, the other the same year, although he only went there his senior year. With over 1800 students it was not odd I wouldn't know them, but it was strange we all ended up in a small cluster of offices 300 miles away from our high school, and another was from a nearby high school my sister attended for a year while my high school was being built.