Shout out to Queen Maebh for bringing me earplugs and headphones at my rehab. I should be able to avoid Fox News bombardment. I guess it's good that they keep deluding themselves that they represent half of the population, doesn't mean I need to hear it.
THE PROBLEM OF THE MYRIAD STATE POLLS brings us to Nate Silver and his epigones. Silver’s oft-imitated method, as Campbell summarizes it, is “to assess and aggregate national state-level polls, then crank them through a statistical model that considers past performance of the polls and the rigor of their survey methodology … among other variables.” The idea, like in an insurance risk pool, is that with a big enough mega-sample, the bad cancels out the good.
But an aggregator can only be as good as the polls he aggregates—and as we’ve seen, bad predictions often come in herds.
He can also only be as good as how soundly he weights them according to past performance. But of course, performance of that Marquette University poll had been unimpeachable, until it wasn’t; as had been the 1920s Literary Digest poll; as had been the pre-1948 triumvirate polls.
Life can only be understood backward, but it must be lived forward. Subjective and arbitrary decisions must therefore be made by aggregators, just as much as by traditional pollsters—if not more so.
The reasons are that the problems of polling are the same as they were a century ago--getting a random sample of THE SAME population that determines the question in which you are interested. This is actually two problems: 1) determining a population (a subset) from which you can sample that is representative of the larger population; and 2) making sure that your polling sample drawn from your subset is actually random. These are hard, and we aren't any better at they than we were 100 years ago. Actually, probably the best solutions come from betting markets.
There is a movement afoot all across America. A growing number of very diverse Christians are confronting the white Christian nationalism that is supporting Donald Trump. The message is clear: this distorted false religion vs. Jesus. So many of the attacks on others made by Trump and his enthusiastic white evangelical and charismatic supporters are antithetical to the teachings of Jesus.
Some good news I just heard is that the Ohio Council of Churches has now called for a gathering for pastors all over the state to deal with the Springfield lies about dogs and cats and the resulting crisis for so many people in their state. Today, in Atlanta, Georgia, top civic leaders and former elected officials-both Republican and Democrat—are convening for a “Democracy At Risk” panel in a downtown church. This weekend, the town meetings go to Dallas, Texas, where churches are trying to overcome their “bubbles” and talk to each other.
Oh, how nice, it only took ten years for *some* white "christians" to recognize that a mendacious, willfully ignorant, gratuitously cruel, hatemongering, violence-inciting, misogynist, racist, hypocritical ... I could go on ... con-man, who was so obviously using "christianity" as tribal rather than actionable, is not in 100% alignment with the tenets of their faith, and try to mop up the sewage gushing from the fundagelical base with a few paper towels around the edge. Am I impressed? No I am not.
Austria's been captured by the Russians for a while now. Here's Putin dancing with the Austrian foreign minister at her wedding six years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlZbWUQTJEU
ETA: I can't really pretend Germany's any better. Half our political class here has also been captured, along with the regional governments of most of the former DDR.
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around such devastation so far from Helene's landfall. I've only experienced one tropical storm in my life, Hilary last summer. My creek and pond flooded for a couple of months, big deal. My heart goes out to all in her path.
Shit. Asheville is destroyed. I have a good friend living there, or was living there. I'm hoping he moved back to Chicago like he said he was going to a few months ago. Damn.
Beautiful area. Fond memory of the hospitality we were shown at the Biltmore on our visit. It was easy to see how strong the connections were between the estate and the community. I’m hoping they reached out to support the people who live there.
When i was in Austria for work for a few weeks a few years ago I must say - Sunday it seemed like everyone at the local market was just FALL DOWN DRUNK ON THEIR FEET at noon. Everyone. Kids in tow. Driving/swerving back home with the kids in the back.
Love this movie.
Shout out to Queen Maebh for bringing me earplugs and headphones at my rehab. I should be able to avoid Fox News bombardment. I guess it's good that they keep deluding themselves that they represent half of the population, doesn't mean I need to hear it.
Rehab? PT?
SNF rehab with PT/OT/ST, mostly really good staff, and surprisingly good kitchen.
Will have to DVR, Daryl and Carol get back together!
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑛𝑜 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑦 𝑎𝑔𝑜. 𝑆𝑜 𝑤ℎ𝑦 𝑑𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠?
THE PROBLEM OF THE MYRIAD STATE POLLS brings us to Nate Silver and his epigones. Silver’s oft-imitated method, as Campbell summarizes it, is “to assess and aggregate national state-level polls, then crank them through a statistical model that considers past performance of the polls and the rigor of their survey methodology … among other variables.” The idea, like in an insurance risk pool, is that with a big enough mega-sample, the bad cancels out the good.
But an aggregator can only be as good as the polls he aggregates—and as we’ve seen, bad predictions often come in herds.
He can also only be as good as how soundly he weights them according to past performance. But of course, performance of that Marquette University poll had been unimpeachable, until it wasn’t; as had been the 1920s Literary Digest poll; as had been the pre-1948 triumvirate polls.
Life can only be understood backward, but it must be lived forward. Subjective and arbitrary decisions must therefore be made by aggregators, just as much as by traditional pollsters—if not more so.
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/
The reasons are that the problems of polling are the same as they were a century ago--getting a random sample of THE SAME population that determines the question in which you are interested. This is actually two problems: 1) determining a population (a subset) from which you can sample that is representative of the larger population; and 2) making sure that your polling sample drawn from your subset is actually random. These are hard, and we aren't any better at they than we were 100 years ago. Actually, probably the best solutions come from betting markets.
"can also only be as good as how soundly he weights them according to past performance"
This is something I've been harping on. Past performance does not include the Dobbs decision or Jan 6 and Trump losing his fucking mind.
Their next album cover: lead singer, keyboards, badass bass.
The band needs to break their habit of tearing out the insulation in the floor joist.
https://substack.com/profile/1687878-1d57a1d5931d/note/c-70741733?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=106di
It's obviously in their way. Fix it, Mom!
“We could’ve made it. We could’ve been big.”
𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐭
𝐴 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒 𝐶ℎ𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝐶ℎ𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑛 𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑚 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐷𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑑 𝑇𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑝
There is a movement afoot all across America. A growing number of very diverse Christians are confronting the white Christian nationalism that is supporting Donald Trump. The message is clear: this distorted false religion vs. Jesus. So many of the attacks on others made by Trump and his enthusiastic white evangelical and charismatic supporters are antithetical to the teachings of Jesus.
Some good news I just heard is that the Ohio Council of Churches has now called for a gathering for pastors all over the state to deal with the Springfield lies about dogs and cats and the resulting crisis for so many people in their state. Today, in Atlanta, Georgia, top civic leaders and former elected officials-both Republican and Democrat—are convening for a “Democracy At Risk” panel in a downtown church. This weekend, the town meetings go to Dallas, Texas, where churches are trying to overcome their “bubbles” and talk to each other.
https://jimwallis.substack.com/p/there-is-a-movement-afoot
Oh, how nice, it only took ten years for *some* white "christians" to recognize that a mendacious, willfully ignorant, gratuitously cruel, hatemongering, violence-inciting, misogynist, racist, hypocritical ... I could go on ... con-man, who was so obviously using "christianity" as tribal rather than actionable, is not in 100% alignment with the tenets of their faith, and try to mop up the sewage gushing from the fundagelical base with a few paper towels around the edge. Am I impressed? No I am not.
It doesn't matter whether you're impressed; it only matters whether they have any influence ideologically and, especially, on voting.
Hey, that's warp-speed progress where religion is concerned.
hey, it took them only 300 years to exonerate Galileo for saying that the earth circles the sun.
Cruel Sister
Pentangle
https://youtu.be/6Wf8W45l8k8?si=H2CqCcloPGRXBK2L
.
But when they laid it on a stone
The harp began to play alone.
The first string sang a doleful sound:
"The bride her younger sister drowned."
The second string as that they tried,
In terror sits the black-haired bride.
The third string sang beneath their bow,
"And surely now her tears will flow."
We live in a country where a trans teenager in a girls’ bathroom is an existential threat but an AK-47 gets no more than thoughts and prayers.
Yeah and there are millions of those things for every trans teenager.
"It could never happen here!"
𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢 𝘛𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 - 𝘢 𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘮 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘱’𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯 𝘚𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 (𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘭𝘢𝘸) 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘸𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘈𝘧𝘨𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯’𝘴 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘺𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘮.
𝘕𝘢𝘻𝘥𝘢𝘯𝘢’𝘴 𝘥𝘪𝘷𝘰𝘳𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘛𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘦 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘨𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘩.
𝘐𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 10 𝘥𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮 𝘴𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭, 𝘒𝘢𝘣𝘶𝘭, 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘵 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘴𝘬 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘷𝘰𝘳𝘤𝘦 𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘩𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘴𝘰 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳.
𝗔 𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲 - 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx24evnk5d2o
Texas Paul is talking live about the Hurricane damage (LIVE): https://youtu.be/Benrde6Qgjo
TY, Hammy. Now he's talking about my boy, Sherrod.
Really, Austria?
𝗙𝗮𝗿 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8rdygy5888o
Austria's been captured by the Russians for a while now. Here's Putin dancing with the Austrian foreign minister at her wedding six years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlZbWUQTJEU
ETA: I can't really pretend Germany's any better. Half our political class here has also been captured, along with the regional governments of most of the former DDR.
Yikes (Asheville):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOERP7Jx8qg
Shit, my coworker lives there. I hope she's ok.
$2.90 for gas? Lucky duckies!
$50/gallon for water, though. (Seriously. I don't think they have water. Imagine that.)
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around such devastation so far from Helene's landfall. I've only experienced one tropical storm in my life, Hilary last summer. My creek and pond flooded for a couple of months, big deal. My heart goes out to all in her path.
For the storm, death toll is around 55 now. Of course that number will get bigger.
Damn.
Devastating.
The weirdo toilet paper bears.
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/RYzZOv2gF2o/sddefault.jpg
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fmedia_upload%2Fcomment%2F526eae59-e0a9-4c70-9e96-49c94676f71a%2F7bf7dedb-b7d8-49cd-90a1-58b3bac0e509.jpeg
That guy never fails to rise to the occasion!
Shit. Asheville is destroyed. I have a good friend living there, or was living there. I'm hoping he moved back to Chicago like he said he was going to a few months ago. Damn.
I have family there.
Beautiful area. Fond memory of the hospitality we were shown at the Biltmore on our visit. It was easy to see how strong the connections were between the estate and the community. I’m hoping they reached out to support the people who live there.
sorry to hear that. I hope they make it through ok.
I just checked, cousin Mary Alice is in Waynesville, they are fine, Nearby Asheville got it much worse.
Flooding in Tennessee. Where my Tennessean Wonkers at? I know Evan lives there.
Austria has parl elections today
All eyes on Krazy Kikkl - pro Putin and pals with Orban!
Pushing Ivermectin!
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1839084971933212919?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1839084971933212919%7Ctwgr%5E51bbb0771027b5b155b5193c6e50a974570e9df4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.joemygod.com%2F2024%2F09%2Fnazi-founded-party-poised-to-take-power-in-austria%2F
These mini-Putins seem like such cheap dates, don't they? I wonder how much? A few thousand Euros?
When i was in Austria for work for a few weeks a few years ago I must say - Sunday it seemed like everyone at the local market was just FALL DOWN DRUNK ON THEIR FEET at noon. Everyone. Kids in tow. Driving/swerving back home with the kids in the back.
😳