Sell Your House Fast For Cash. Tabs, Thurs., Oct. 22, 2020

Sell Your House Fast For Cash. Tabs, Thurs., Oct. 22, 2020
Tabs gifs by your friend Martini Ambassador!

Has Trump pulled out of tonight's debate yet? Who cares, you can't make me watch that shit again. Maybe I will make Evan watch it. Haven't decided. Someone should probably be extra nice to me today! Anyway, yeah, presumably liveblog tonight.

Obama's blistering rebuke of Trump? Thank you, CNN, don't mind if I do!

Aw man.

How fucking dare Donald Trump accuse anyone of corruption. — Aaron Rupar at Vox

What's this corrupt 5G contract, and will it give us all the ronas? (Don't know, and no.) (CNN)

Hmmmm maybe. Franklin Foer argues Biden's going for a transformative presidency. I'm not sold on his anecdata. (The Atlantic)

Eric Levitz gets nerdy historical on the Gender Gap. — New York mag

Peter Hamby gets (less) nerdy and (less) historical on the Everyone Else Gap. — Vanity Fair

Dave Wasserman gets nerdy on the granular congressional district polling data. — Washington Post

Lol "simplified terms":

How this works: We start with the 40,000 simulations that our election forecast runs every time it updates. When you choose the winner of a state or district, we throw out any simulations where the outcome you picked didn't happen and recalculate the candidates' chances using just the simulations that are left. If you choose enough unlikely outcomes, we'll eventually wind up with so few simulations remaining that we can't produce accurate results. When that happens, we go back to our full set of simulations and run a series of regressions to see how your scenario might look if it turned up more often.

In simplified terms, the regressions start off by looking at the vote share for each candidate in every simulation and seeing how the rest of the map changed in response to big or small wins. So let's say you picked Trump to win Texas. In some of our simulations, Trump may have won Texas very narrowly and also have narrowly lost some toss-up states. But in simulations where he won Texas by a big margin, he may also have won big in toss-up states and pulled some Democratic-leaning states into his column, while the reverse may be true in simulations where he lost the state. We figure out how every other state tended to look in that full range of scenarios, tracking not just whether the candidate usually won other states but also how much he generally won or lost each one by.

After all that, we take some representative examples of scenarios that include the picks you made and use what we learned from our regression analysis to adjust all 40,000 simulations, and then recalculate state and national win probabilities. Finally, we blend those adjusted simulations with any of the original simulations that still apply and produce a final forecast.

Anyway, they made a map. I don't get it. (538)


[Sotomayor's — of course — dissent]

Speaking of Alabama, we've sort of written off Doug Jones. Maybe we shouldn't.

Doug Jones:

Brandy Zadrozny wrote about Trump priming his wackos to go all Manchurian Candidate when he shows them the Queen of Hearts, so apparently Tucker Carlson is ... priming his wackos to go all Manchurian Candidate when he shows them the Queen of Hearts. No vid or link for Tucker, fuck that guy. (NBC News)

Meet The Midwestern Women Steelworkers Who Put A Pro-Biden Bat Signal On Trump Tower? Okay, I will! — Blockclub Chicago

The White House coronavirus task force knows exactly why it's spreading in Michigan's Upper Peninsula:

"Michigan's success in controlling COVID-19 is being challenged by increasing cases due to incomplete compliance with mitigation measures and spreading outbreaks especially in the Upper Peninsula," the report reads.

Michigan Advance

Dem leaders decline to give Dianne Feinstein a vote of confidence after her angermaking comments about what a good job Lindsey Graham did with his sham Amy Bony Carrot hearings. (Extreme Maya Rudolph voice) Oh no not Dianne Feinstein. (CNN)


Postmaster General Louis DeJoy pulled all the postal police off the beat and this is the first we're hearing about it? All the government people are declining to comment; all the union folks and retired inspectors are not. (Wall Street Journal or Daily Kos)

Inspector General really can't figure out WHAT DeJoy was thinking. — Axios

How the US could go from climate zero to hero. — Grist

I would like to spend all the money in the world to go to this Airbnb pls! But I cannot, because it is "ski-in only" on my birthday in February, and LOL can you imagine. (Bitterroot Mountain Chalet)

There were about seven Donna Rose videos on my phone, most of which she invited you to click like and subscribe and then just left the phone on the couch and went and did other stuff. Anyway, here's our house. You do not have to ski in to it. Special cameo: Fat supine mom!

Do your Amazon shopping through this link, because reasons.

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