Here is a fun poll porn survey experiment for you to look at, as you are carefully thinking about how you will vote in the Democratic primary, assuming you have not already voted nine times like most liberals.
We know, going into the 2020 election, that based on the results of the 2018 midterms, people's voting habits are motivated more and more by what pollster and all-around data badass Rachel Bitecofer calls "negative partisanship," i.e. the idea that people are much more motivated to vote against those they oppose, and that the team that's most pissed off and ready to go wins the election. Bitecofer, who almost exactly predicted the results of the 2018 midterms, is fighting against the "Chuck Todd theory of American politics," which makes supposed "swing voters" objects of worship and veneration, as if there's really a giant portion of the population that just vacillates back and forth between the parties like a bunch of idiots. Bitecofer argues that while these folks exist, they're not the dominant part of the equation, not in American politics in 2020.
SeniorLiving.org is out with a new poll Wonkette is exclusively reporting on first, MUST CREDIT WONKETTE! It examines something we think probably goes hand-in-hand with Bitecofer's model, asking a very interesting question of Americans: What do you fear more than death? In other words, what would you rather DIE than have happen? The results are illuminating!
First of all, who fears death? According to the survey, 23.5 percent of people born between 1946 and 2001 fear their own death. (That number does not include people who said they were "slightly" or "somewhat" fearful of death or any of the other issues they asked about.) And the numbers on the death question aren't that different, depending on whether you're talking to Republicans, Democrats or so-called "independents."
Democrats' most common fear? According to 74 percent of them, it's that Donald Trump will be re-elected, which is, according to #mathematics, almost exactly three times as many as the number of Democrats who say they fear death (24.5 percent). You know, in case anybody out there is wondering what actually is going to motivate Democrats to get to the polls this year. Democratic messaging people, pay attention.
Other fears that got a lot of responses from Democrats were climate change, Russian interference, mass shootings, and high medical bills. That last one ranked pretty highly on everybody's list, actually. Hooray, Americans still have things in common! Like a gripping fear that their lives will be ruined by a medical emergency! U-S-A! U-S-A!
But don't get too excited about that VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO result from the Democrats, because remember Bitecofer's model says negative partisanship goes both ways. Her model predicts high Dem turnout in 2020, but it also predicts high Republican turnout, because they, too, are voting against their enemies. Gotta own the libs, after all!
So let's look at this graphic of their fears. (It also has the Dem fears and the independent fears on it.)
They are scared of terrorism and they are scared of medical bills and OH SHIT, BERNIE SANDERS! OH FUCK, SOCIALISM! OH FIDDLESTICKS, ELIZABETH WARREN! JOE BIDEN! ISIS!
THEIR VERY OWN SHADOW!
THE WORD "MOIST"!
Just kidding, it is clearly liberals who are scared of the word "moist." Maybe next time the pollsters will write that very good question into the poll.
But note on the graphic that it appears approximately twice as many Republicans are scared of all those things, as they are of their own deaths. Also note, for perspective, that many more Democrats are scared of Trump's re-election than Republicans are of Bernie or any other candidate. So maybe this fear factor will help us in November!
(VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO, DAMMIT.)
The survey looks at the issue from other angles too, including divvied up by generation, which is interesting, especially if you are in the mood to say "OK Boomer" or "GODDAMN FUCKING BOOMERS" or something like that, not that you'd ever be so impolite.
Note on this graphic what appears on the Boomer Fear chart, which does not appear on the charts for Generations X or Z, or the Millennials.
Everybody else is terrified, to varying degrees, of Trump's re-election. Meanwhile for FUCKING BOOMERS that doesn't even register, but fears of Bernie and Elizabeth Warren sure do.
Know who votes every time, early and often? FUCKING BOOMERS.
Take some time and look around the survey, it's very interesting and cool.
And VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO, wait we already said that, oh well, guess we just said it again.
OPEN THREAD, Y'ALL!
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