SUBJECT!

Big news broke Tuesday evening, and it is that Donald Trump is a subject, not a target, in Robert Mueller's investigation. But what does that meeeeeeean? Is Trump even going to die in jail? Dunno, we are not a psychic! Let's look at this news leaked by Trump White House sources and broken by the Washington Post, then we'll try to explain/analyze/speculate wildly about what this report really tells us.

The main thrust of WaPo's reporting is that we're learning what Robert Mueller has told Trump's legal team (whatever's left of it) in negotiations over Trump sitting with the special counsel for an interview, where the president would likely perjure his own self by the pussy, at which point he would DEFINITELY become a target:

In private negotiations in early March about a possible presidential interview, Mueller described Trump as a subject of his investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. Prosecutors view someone as a subject when that person has engaged in conduct that is under investigation but there is not sufficient evidence to bring charges.

And Trump is reportedly relieved over this, and it makes him want to do an interview with Mueller more! He is so excited to find out he, the sitting president of the United States, is a subject of the largest, most wide-ranging national security investigation in American history! As Rachel Maddow joked last night, maybe it is just because Trump loves being the subject of things. Wonkette would add that it's important to remember that Trump is WEAPONS GRADE STUPID, and that he probably has no idea what this really means. (Hint: For one thing, it definitely doesn't mean he's just a witness! And subjects very frequently suddenly become targets! So ...)

If you'll remember, recently dearly departed lead Trump Russia lawyer John Dowd was very "HOT STOVE! HOT STOVE!" about Trump doing an interview. Lead White House Russia lawyer Ty Cobb, who is still around, actually wants Trump to do it, though it seems like he's more considering the political ramifications of Trump refusing, as opposed to being an idiot like Trump who thinks the interview will make things better.

Regardless, Robert Mueller wants this damn interview. So maybe he is baiting Trump by saying, "You're just a subject, you're not a target, so come on over and let's you and me talk, it'll be fine, I prooooooomise." And Trump might fall for it!

Also, the U.S. Attorneys' Manual is real picky about when it's OK to subpoena grand jury targets, but less so with subjects, so Mueller might be wanting to keep open the option to haul Trump in front of a grand jury, were he to refuse a voluntary interview. He's just a subject, after all! (And again, subjects can turn into targets real fast, so ...)

WaPo also explained that, according to its sources, Mueller is "preparing a report about the president's actions while in office and potential obstruction of justice," and Mueller's people are saying MAYBE they will do multiple reports, like one now on obstruction of justice, and and another one later on Russia stuff. Is Mueller really going to do that? Eh, maybe, maybe not, but since this story was leaked by White House sources, it could mean it's the version of events they REALLYREALLYREALLY want to believe. Know how Trump's lawyers have been telling him for the last six months that the Mueller investigation will probably be over in about two weeks? They really want that to be true.

But the fact that Mueller is preparing a report is also significant because, according to a Trump source, Mueller wants "to answer the public's questions." The first step for that would be for Mueller's team to present its report to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who oversees the investigation. At that point, it would be up to Rosenstein what to do with the report.

So let's imagine Robert Mueller has concluded (based on the treasure trove of evidence he already has, plus any potential interview he gets out of Trump) that the president in fact did commit obstruction of justice a million times, and also other crimes too. He writes that in his report with a big red pen, and it goes to Rosenstein.

As legal expert Asha Rangappa notes on Twitter, Mueller's report would explicitly recommend charges (or not!), but Rosenstein is the guy who decides whether or not to act on it. She adds that if Mueller was recommending charges, Rosenstein probably would not pursue them, based on current DOJ guidelines that you can't indict a sitting president. BUT there is a "kicker," as Rangappa explains: