New York Times Polls Say Trump Is Bigly F*ckin' Loser Who's Gonna Bigly F*ckin' Lose
If it's Thursday, we're taking a train to Porn Town! Specifically, POLL PORN TOWN, because there are some polls out that you're going to want to know about, if you don't already.
The new New York Times/Siena College poll has Joe Biden beating Donald Trump's ass 50-36, which is yet another really yooge spread. This comes after a Fox News poll, what made Donald Trump bellyache wildly, which showed Trump losing 50-38. And a CNN poll, what made Trump (and his idiot campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis!) bellyache wildly, which showed Trump losing 55-41.
Fourteen points, 12 points, 14 points ... folks, we are starting to see what's called a pattern. So either everyone needs a real good unskewin', or Trump is, at least at the moment, going down in flames. Since there is a zero percent chance of Trump becoming a better candidate or getting better at president-ing, and since there is an almost-zero chance the coronavirus (which with the help of Trump's incompetence has killed 124,000 Americans so far with no signs of stopping) is going away, we think the polls are going to stay pretty bad for him. If anything, they might get much worse for him.
In the new poll, Biden is obviously way ahead with Black voters (by 74 points) and Hispanic voters (39 points) and young people (34 points). Biden leads with women by 22 points, and white women with college degrees by 39 points. (The Times notes that Hillary Clinton only beat Trump in that group by seven.)
But Biden also has a little three point lead with men, and he's about even with Trump with white voters. Oh yeah, and Biden has a small two-point lead with The Olds. Trump's approval on specific issues — the coronavirus, the pandemic, things like that — is abysmal. All of that is very bad for him.
You are saying "BUT WAIT!" We can hear you saying that, because of the garbage fire known as the Electoral College. It's not lookin' good for Trump there either, according to another new Times/Siena College poll, focusing on battleground states. As Times pollster Nate Cohn describes it, Biden has a "nine-point advantage across six key states, including leads of at least six points in each of them." Here are those six states:
- Michigan: Biden 47-36
- Wisconsin: Biden 49-38
- Pennsylvania: Biden 50-40
- Florida: Biden 47-41
- Arizona: Biden 48-41
- North Carolina: Biden 49-40
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were where Trump squeezed out his "win" in 2016, with the help of Russia, James Comey, and a 40-year GOP campaign of misogyny and lies against Hillary Clinton. He won all of the three other states. You start kicking states from that list into Biden's column, and Trump's paths to 270 electoral votes kinda disappear. Meanwhile, Biden seems to have ALL THE PATHS. Especially if he ends up picking up a Georgia or a Texas, which are distinct possibilities at this point.
Here's another factoid from the Times battleground states poll: Only 86 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2016 say they're doing it again. For a guy who lost the popular vote by three million and only squeaked by in those three states, he can't afford to lose shit, much less 14 percent of his previous voters in those battleground states.
Dive deeper into those polls if you want to, and when you're done with that, you can look at ANOTHER New York Times/Siena College poll that just came out — what do these people do all day, just polls the whole fucking time, like some kind of common pollsters? — which focuses on how hard Trump is fucking GOP senators up for re-election. Short version: He's fuckin' 'em HARD.
Matthew Yglesias also has a really good analysis of where all the polls are right now, over at Vox. Key takeaway: Biden's leads are a lot bigger than Hillary Clinton's leads were. So even if Biden's support is somewhat exaggerated in polling for some reason, he has a lot more room for that kind of error than Hillary Clinton did.
Now obviously, a lot can change between now and November 3, which is 131 days from now. But at the same time, Trump's ratfucking options are shrinking. Adam Serwer has an incredibly interesting piece in The Atlantic about how Trump is just having a really hard time running against an old white Catholic guy, because all the race-baiting misogynistic shit he's deployed against Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton just doesn't work on Biden. People don't buy the picture Trump is trying to paint of Biden, not even a lot of his own people. (It's one of those good news/bad news pieces from Serwer. It's good news for Joe Biden, bad news because it exposes just how much race-baiting and misogyny still work in America in 2020.)
Trump was impeached trying to force Ukraine to frame Biden for Ukrainian crimes against humanity or something, and Biden hasn't suffered. Attorney General Bill Barr is trying so hard to ratfuck up fake investigations and maybe even October indictments in the fake OBAMAGATE! non-scandal, but everybody knows Barr is a lying piece of shit and a political errand boy. Nobody besides Fox News-obsessed idiots thinks he's actually acting in good faith. (As we saw yesterday!) Do you really think Americans are going to be moved by obvious political retribution indictments against Obama people in October, the way they were with James Comey's announcement that he'd found a treasure chest full of Hillary Clinton emails 11 days before the election?
Pfffffft. Barr literally whined to Fox News's Maria Bartiromo this weekend that nobody seems to be paying attention to what he dishonestly calls "the complete collapse of the so-called Russiagate scandal," and said it's "surprising to me that people aren't concerned about civil liberties and the integrity of our governmental process," which is LOLOL FUCKING RICH coming from that dumpy sack of crap.
Meanwhile, the coronavirus, barring some sort of miracle, is still going to be with us, and oh yeah, Trump will still be the candidate, a problem the campaign still doesn't seem to grasp. People hate that guy.
So yes, a lot could change, but it's not lookin' good for Trump. How do we make sure it stays that way? We don't get complacent, we volunteer, we donate, we vote like our lives depend on it, because of how they do.
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