North Carolina Will Get 2018 Election Right This Time, You Betcha!
The final congressional election of 2018 will take place tomorrow, as North Carolina's 9th district holds a do-over of the race that was marred -- besmirched, even -- by alleged election fraud, stemming from a Republican operative's operation to fuck with the absentee vote. The state Board of Elections voted in February to hold a new election after plenty of evidence suggested Republican Mark Harris's 2018 "win" over Democrat Dan McCready was tainted by the alleged absentee ballot fraud, and the alleged frauder, McCrae Dowless, has been charged with a whole load of felonies related to the scheme.
Harris decided not to run, possibly because of all his self-beclowning in the hearings into the 2018 mess, so while McCready is running again, the R candidate this time out will be state Senator Dan Bishop, the author of the state's notorious trans bathroom bill. Sadly, Harris's endorsed candidate, Boss Hogg cosplayer Stony Rushing, lost the do-over primary. And those Duke boys will never get caught at this rate.
Donald Trump is traveling to the district tonight for a rally in Fayetteville, where he's expected to remember Bishop at some point, and to accuse McCready of personally teaching illegal immigrants to murder white girls while singing the praises of Nancy Pelosi, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Ilhan Omar. Who he'll also blame for Hurricane Dorian. "We never had Hurricane Dorian before those two were elected," he'll point out, shedding a single tear in Alabama's direction as a symbol of his unwavering promise to #NeverForget.
Unlike Harris, a Bab-tist preacher who'd never held office, Bishop has more establishment Republican connections. And since the special election is the only congressional race going at the moment, Bishop also benefits from a much bigger spending spree from outside rightwing groups. Democrats pissed off over the 2018 ratfuck have also spent a lot to support McCready, who has a far bigger campaign war chest than Bishop -- although outside spending has helped keep Bishop's total ad support close.
Overall, Dems have spent $6,845,359 over the TV and radio airwaves, per data from Advertising Analytics, while Republicans have spent $6,551,704.
But the McCready campaign has a 3-to-1 ad-spending edge over the Bishop campaign, $3.2 million to $1.1 million – which is consistent with what we saw in 2018.
Outside groups like the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund have propped up the GOP side.
The campaign polling shows the race to be a statistical dead heat, according to Politico, which is a decidedly interesting fact for a district Trump won by 12 points in 2016. And with all the craziness that went before, we'd caution against reading much of anything into the outcome of tomorrow's vote, although NBC News is doing exactly that. (Pop quiz, who from NBC News do you think wrote the article about how tomorrow's outcome means everything? Give yourself a hundred ameros if you said Chuck Todd!) If anything, it could come down to demographics: While McCready has a strong advantage in Charlotte, other parts of the district are very, very conservative. But there are also significant blocs of black and Native American votes at play, too.
Bishop is very definitely a Trump guy. Just listen to his version of being "concerned" about Republicans' loss of support in urban areas. You know, places like San Francisco, where all those people live:
"I mean, I see things on TV every day," said Bishop. "It's a fabulous place, but you have endless encampments of people on the street, and people defecating and urinating on the street, and drug[s] and needles. I mean, just a lot of stuff that you wouldn't expect to happen in a place that otherwise is known for affluence. And I don't want to see that kind of thing happen to Charlotte."
While being interviewed by Politico, Bishop also managed to casually name drop all the demons he wants voters to associate with McCready: "Elizabeth Warren and Beto O'Rourke, Rep. Adam Schiff, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and actress Debra Messing." How the heck did he forget AOC? Is he really conservative enough?
We'll keep you up to date on developments in NC-9, particularly if any polling places suddenly vanish in hurricane-force winds.
[Politico / NBC News / News & Observer]
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