OT: but sorta related . . . these kinds of elections can be hard to read, but at the very least, looks like Netanyahu stays for now (61 seats needed for election) . . .
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la
Neither bloc can form a government, and Netanyahu stays in office while everyone tries:
1) Netanyahu has no realistic route to 61. His bloc is the four religious-right parties plus Likud, and every party outside it ran on replacing him. To get there he would need defectors from Bennett or Lieberman, which both ruled out, or Ra’am, which Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would veto.
2) Eisenkot’s only path to a government runs through the Arab parties. Ra’am alone gets him to 58. He needs the Joint List as well, at least abstaining or giving outside support. That is the 2021 Bennett-Lapid model, but with a bigger dependency. Bennett and Lieberman have both been wary of relying on the Joint List.
3) The other way out is the Haredim. Shas plus UTJ is 14 seats, which would put Eisenkot at 66. But the draft is the issue that defines Lieberman, Bennett and the Democrats. A deal on exemptions would break his bloc from the inside.
4) The anti-Netanyahu parties plus the Arab parties come to about 69. That is enough to elect the Knesset speaker, control committees, and pass laws without forming a government. A bill barring an indicted MK from forming a government becomes possible.
5) Likud’s overperformance is mostly cannibalization. Likud gained, but its bloc is at 50. The votes came from inside the right, not from the center.
6) Stalemate favors Netanyahu. He stays caretaker PM through coalition talks and any repeat election. If nobody gets to 61, he governs by default.
The likeliest outcomes are a Bennett-Lapid-style government that depends on Arab support, or deadlock and another election with Netanyahu still in charge. The whole question is whether Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman will sit with Arab support. Exit polls here usually miss by a seat or two per party, so a small shift around the threshold could change the math.
This looks like it's going to go the way most people thought.
Eisenkot is a military hard-liner on Gaza; very anti-Arab. It's very hard to see how he gets any support from the Arab parties. To get support from the religious extremists, he'd have to promise them exemption from public service. They can't go along with that, and if he did offer that, he'd lose all the rest of his supporters.
This is exactly how this damn guy Netanyahu stays in power, and out of prison for his corruption. He can get just barely enough support from people who can't support each other. He plays the internal contradictions of the current crisis of the nation-state of Israel perfectly, and with no scruples or remorse.
So the MAGA orcs are apparently on again about how the Muslims are just sand-eaters and camel-humpers, to which I would like to answer that I once attended a workshop at the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, in Trieste, Italy, named for Professor Abdus Salam, a Pakistani theoretical physicist who shared the Nobel Prize for his work in developing what is now the standard model of particle physics.
Several of the other conference attendees were physics college students from Iran, because there was a time when scientists would actually collaborate across political boundaries.
A pretty good friend of mine is from Iran. Her daughter was in our girl scout troop and we became friends. She and her husband fled here b/c they were religiously persecuted (they are Ba'hai).
Looking like Likud got the most votes, but the right wing coalition will have fewer seats. So it looks like Bibi will fail to form a government so after that, the opposition will try.
Polls have closed in an election that has seen Israelis vote in record numbers. In what is widely seen as the most consequential election in the country’s history, voters were deciding whether to keep Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition in power or chart a new course.
By 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. Eastern), two hours before polls were scheduled to close, 74.3 percent of eligible voters had cast ballots, the highest rate for that point in the day since 1988.
The main Israeli broadcast exit polls indicate that challenger Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc has emerged as the largest group in Israel’s election, just ahead of the ruling coalition but well short of a majority.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud is set to be the biggest single party in the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset.
Arab Israeli parties have emerged with a record number of seats.
Official results will start being published from 22:00 GMT, but an estimated 600,000 absentee ballots - almost all from the military - and around 10% of the total votes, won’t be fully counted until Thursday.
Once all the results are in, and following consultations with all the political factions, Israel’s president then invites the party leader whom he believes has the best chance of success to form a governing coalition.
OT: let's see... Baptist? Check. Married? Check. Has kids? Check. Conservative wingnut state senator from Tennessee? Check. Recently caught sending dick pics to women and blaming it on "youthful indiscretion"? Check and check.
Late in his life, my dad started doing that too. I looked it up and though I can't remember the name of the phenomenon, it's a certain sign of accelerating dementia and overall cognitive/neural breakdown.
I had to stop subscribing to Wonkette after my dad died in 2023. My siblings took control of everything - and they still have it to this day. I have a stock portfolio from my mom that is worth seven figures but she put it in a trust with my brother in charge and I can't get anything from it.
I resubscribed this week because, why the fuck not? Anything I had to lose from the scrutiny of my self-hating gay brother (he would pour over my bank statements until I stopped sending them a year ago), who is in control of my trust, I already lost. Wonkette forever :)
I would just like to find a guy who is an attorney who would, out of complete affection for me, go after my brother for withholding the dividends (which in 2024, were up to $20k) from me. I don't think my brother would steal the money - I do think he understands his legal duty as a fiduciary - but I have a friggin' right to it.
OT: Update from Israel regarding the election there.
𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝘀𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿
The story of election day so far has been the turnout - especially in some Arab-majority cities - which has reached record levels at points throughout the day.
If the Arab vote were to hold it could shrink both the main Jewish blocs - Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s - and knock out some of the smaller parties that hoped to pass the electoral threshold of 3.25%.
This would make it very difficult for anyone to form a government without the help or participation of at least one of the Arab party blocs - the United Arab List and the Joint List.
Most of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out working with them, meaning concessions, deals and U-turns may be needed to breach any impasse.
But it's important to reiterate - until results roll in, it's all speculation. (BBC)
Turnout data may help explain why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is worried about the pace of voting. With just over three hours until polls close, turnout in the five towns where his Likud party won its strongest support in 2022 was below the national rate by up to 10 percentage points.
There needs to be another court to stop the clownshoes lolyer Blanche who has definitely been making plans to screw with Alaska. This is despite the ballot very CLEARLY saying who the incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is. I am not even sure the second Dan Sullivan would get enough votes to make up the difference with Peltola, who is awesome.
So keep top eye, folks, for Maladministration 2.0 fuckery. And of course never rule anything out with Taney Court 2.0!
“The New York Times calls this an “incremental setback” for the Trump administration, but what do they know? They aren’t here! “
Weird. The NYT left out the obligatory pic of Trump pumping his fist in triumph with a blue background surrounded by flags. They’re slipping.
AAAAAACK!!
I am HEREBY very late to inform you of yrrr
smoking lamp
it was lit almost six fucking minutes ago :[
I am making sounds for words nao? like a certain ambulatory vegetablehuman?
You need to slur more.
Oh, and cheer on violence in the stands.
oblig:
ppppfffththfppfpthhhh
No clear winner yet. Voter turnout was incredible so what's the deal here Israel?
Now is time for horse trading, compromises, Faustian bargains, and plain political skulduggery.
Well, that would be 𝘢𝘭𝘭 the time.
Humiliating poll for Secretary Shitfaced:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/pete-hegseth-role-model-poll-b3074366.html
There's a report that he might try to get picked to take Blackburn's Senate seat in TN if she has to vacate because winning the Goobernor's office.
He could lead the Senate in jumping jacks every morning. I would pay to see that.
Yeah, that makes me so mad. Actually, that's the new story that just went up on the page!
He's fucking toast!
If the Dems get control, he is one of the pack of clowns who will be sacrificed.
OT: but sorta related . . . these kinds of elections can be hard to read, but at the very least, looks like Netanyahu stays for now (61 seats needed for election) . . .
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la
Neither bloc can form a government, and Netanyahu stays in office while everyone tries:
1) Netanyahu has no realistic route to 61. His bloc is the four religious-right parties plus Likud, and every party outside it ran on replacing him. To get there he would need defectors from Bennett or Lieberman, which both ruled out, or Ra’am, which Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would veto.
2) Eisenkot’s only path to a government runs through the Arab parties. Ra’am alone gets him to 58. He needs the Joint List as well, at least abstaining or giving outside support. That is the 2021 Bennett-Lapid model, but with a bigger dependency. Bennett and Lieberman have both been wary of relying on the Joint List.
3) The other way out is the Haredim. Shas plus UTJ is 14 seats, which would put Eisenkot at 66. But the draft is the issue that defines Lieberman, Bennett and the Democrats. A deal on exemptions would break his bloc from the inside.
4) The anti-Netanyahu parties plus the Arab parties come to about 69. That is enough to elect the Knesset speaker, control committees, and pass laws without forming a government. A bill barring an indicted MK from forming a government becomes possible.
5) Likud’s overperformance is mostly cannibalization. Likud gained, but its bloc is at 50. The votes came from inside the right, not from the center.
6) Stalemate favors Netanyahu. He stays caretaker PM through coalition talks and any repeat election. If nobody gets to 61, he governs by default.
The likeliest outcomes are a Bennett-Lapid-style government that depends on Arab support, or deadlock and another election with Netanyahu still in charge. The whole question is whether Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman will sit with Arab support. Exit polls here usually miss by a seat or two per party, so a small shift around the threshold could change the math.
4:05 PM · Oct 27, 2026
https://x.com/academic_la/status/2115172965709209722
"these kinds of elections can be hard to read..."
Understatement of the year. Thanks very much for this detailed reading of the Israeli tea leaves, which would be completely beyond me.
Here's hoping that the politicians can see beyond themselves, get a coalition together, toss out their criminal & begin to fix their country.
Here's hoping that we find the will & the way to toss out our own criminal and fix our democracy..
In both cases, its ain't going to be pretty & there's going to have to be some serious reckoning.
Bring it on.
This looks like it's going to go the way most people thought.
Eisenkot is a military hard-liner on Gaza; very anti-Arab. It's very hard to see how he gets any support from the Arab parties. To get support from the religious extremists, he'd have to promise them exemption from public service. They can't go along with that, and if he did offer that, he'd lose all the rest of his supporters.
This is exactly how this damn guy Netanyahu stays in power, and out of prison for his corruption. He can get just barely enough support from people who can't support each other. He plays the internal contradictions of the current crisis of the nation-state of Israel perfectly, and with no scruples or remorse.
“Died in prison” has always been the corrupt politician’s epitaph. I’ve met my share.
"Neidermeyer: KILLED IN VIETNAM BY HIS OWN TROOPS."
Get Steve Kornacki warmed up. This will drive him insane.
BE SURE TO COUNT THE NUMBER OF LEGS YOU HAVE BEFORE CHECK OUT
Doctor removes prostate from 35 miles away in first telerobotic surgery in US
"AHHHHH! WTF! I just came here to drop off a urine sample! Why the hell does Bender Bending Rodriguez have his hand up my ass!!!"
Not willing to have my surgical outcome dependent on internet connectivity over which Musk might have some control.
I’m picturing hearing that old dialup modem noise just as you go under.
The robots have been capable for some time.
Those Jewish space lasers are accurate as fuck.
And very dainty.
this is such obvious Rule 34erry for someone in the fucking writer's room
and that's all I will say about that
(wakes up from his nap) Eh?
So the MAGA orcs are apparently on again about how the Muslims are just sand-eaters and camel-humpers, to which I would like to answer that I once attended a workshop at the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, in Trieste, Italy, named for Professor Abdus Salam, a Pakistani theoretical physicist who shared the Nobel Prize for his work in developing what is now the standard model of particle physics.
Several of the other conference attendees were physics college students from Iran, because there was a time when scientists would actually collaborate across political boundaries.
LIBRALS WILL MAKE YR KIDS LEARN ARABIC NUMBERS!!1!
Them woke teachers is learnin' my young un' "Al-Gebra."
smgdh
It was actually amazing to meet Iranian nationals and just spend time with them.
A pretty good friend of mine is from Iran. Her daughter was in our girl scout troop and we became friends. She and her husband fled here b/c they were religiously persecuted (they are Ba'hai).
The concept of zero or null didn’t exist until Arabs invented it. Think about that.
Also, al gebra.
Well, we should probably cancel that.
Never mind, the MAGAs don't even know what algebra is. They're still struggling with fractions.
It took until Trump's birth for us to have the perfect example of an absolute zero.
Zero? Null?! Witchcraft! Burn them!
Nuh uh! I'm a follower!
Looking like Likud got the most votes, but the right wing coalition will have fewer seats. So it looks like Bibi will fail to form a government so after that, the opposition will try.
The polls aren't yet closed, are they? And there's record turnout.
Polls have closed in an election that has seen Israelis vote in record numbers. In what is widely seen as the most consequential election in the country’s history, voters were deciding whether to keep Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition in power or chart a new course.
By 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. Eastern), two hours before polls were scheduled to close, 74.3 percent of eligible voters had cast ballots, the highest rate for that point in the day since 1988.
Update from the BBC:
𝗘𝘅𝗶𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘀𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗘𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗻𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗰 𝗮𝘀 𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹𝗶 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆
The main Israeli broadcast exit polls indicate that challenger Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc has emerged as the largest group in Israel’s election, just ahead of the ruling coalition but well short of a majority.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud is set to be the biggest single party in the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset.
Arab Israeli parties have emerged with a record number of seats.
Official results will start being published from 22:00 GMT, but an estimated 600,000 absentee ballots - almost all from the military - and around 10% of the total votes, won’t be fully counted until Thursday.
Once all the results are in, and following consultations with all the political factions, Israel’s president then invites the party leader whom he believes has the best chance of success to form a governing coalition.
A process that can take many weeks.
I think they closed 4pm EST (10pm in Israel)
The Dan Sullivans of Alaska should all be on the ballot the next time.
The collective noun for Dan Sullivan should be “spoiler.”
Dan Sullivans?
Or Dans Sullivan?
Attorneys General Dans Sullivan?
The Sullivi.
I’ll hold out for the succubi, thanks.
Who isn't? Sigh.
Dan Sullibus?
Let's sidestep this and say "Everybody residing in Alaska named Dan Sullivan who is eligible to run for office."
one imagines the necessity of an individual Dan Sullivans, also and too
OT: let's see... Baptist? Check. Married? Check. Has kids? Check. Conservative wingnut state senator from Tennessee? Check. Recently caught sending dick pics to women and blaming it on "youthful indiscretion"? Check and check.
Brent Taylor, COME ON DOWN!
https://www.actionnews5.com/2026/10/27/tennessee-senator-admits-sending-unsolicited-nude-photos-calls-them-youthful-indiscretions/
The Party of Family Values™. At least he's not a drag queen!
If you had grey anywhere on your body hair you can't claim youthful indescretion
Youthful, my ass.
Dudes, come on. Never ever ever send anybody an unsolicited dick pic. Just don't.
best reply to one I've heard thus far:
"that looks just like a penis, only smaller!"
Ha! Very similar to the best reply I have heard of: “Dude, if you’re gonna Photoshop it, you’re supposed to make it bigger”
It’s a fuckin’ Irish joke.
I've heard laments regarding the Irish curse, it's true
Well, at least he wasn't doing teh ghey, amirite?
"Action News 5’s Joyce Peterson spoke with Taylor Tuesday afternoon, where he confirmed sending the photos, saying they involved one woman."
"On Tuesday, the Nashville Scene reported, citing multiple sources, that they had received or seen unsolicited nude photos from Taylor."
So, it's hard to avoid thinking there must have been (multiple - 1) men?
At least his acne is under control.
At 58, he's clearly in the thralls of puberty.
Well I just turned 59 and act like I'm 14, but still manage to override the burning urge to broadcast images of my junk.
Why do so many men with no dick insist on showing it to so many innocent people?
They didn't learn healthy coping mechanisms as children.
Youthful indiscretion. He was in his late 40s when he sent the last one.
A mere wee lad.
Weewee lad. Fify.
"Locker room photos. Everybody does it."
This guy Bianco is no Chad. He's some sort of incel wannabe PUA. And "acting" (cosplaying) U.S. Attorney Neil Floyd is an ICE thug from Arkansas.
Only the worst people.
Rupar 2m
Trump glitches: "Talafreako will kill millions of Texas jobs. Ken Paaaack -- Ken, I'll tell you what ... "
I always love when Trump tries to cover for his glitch with "I'll tell you what," or "and, look…"
Late in his life, my dad started doing that too. I looked it up and though I can't remember the name of the phenomenon, it's a certain sign of accelerating dementia and overall cognitive/neural breakdown.
He's having them more frequently. Let's hope it means something!
He was starting to say Packer, probably confusing Ken with Alfred Packer, famed murderer and gourmet of the Colorado high country.
That Alfred had a hell of an ass!
Perhaps he was shooting for Butt Pucker.
He was annoying, incompetent and stupid. His fellow prospectors frequently brushed him aside, saying "Bite my ass". When food ran short, he did.
I had to stop subscribing to Wonkette after my dad died in 2023. My siblings took control of everything - and they still have it to this day. I have a stock portfolio from my mom that is worth seven figures but she put it in a trust with my brother in charge and I can't get anything from it.
I resubscribed this week because, why the fuck not? Anything I had to lose from the scrutiny of my self-hating gay brother (he would pour over my bank statements until I stopped sending them a year ago), who is in control of my trust, I already lost. Wonkette forever :)
unfortunately, you can't pick your family :(
But you can pick your friends!
I would just like to find a guy who is an attorney who would, out of complete affection for me, go after my brother for withholding the dividends (which in 2024, were up to $20k) from me. I don't think my brother would steal the money - I do think he understands his legal duty as a fiduciary - but I have a friggin' right to it.
Is there a local law school that runs a free clinic?
And you can pick your nose and flick what you find at your family.
OT: Update from Israel regarding the election there.
𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝘀𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿
The story of election day so far has been the turnout - especially in some Arab-majority cities - which has reached record levels at points throughout the day.
𝙋𝙧𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙈𝙞𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝘽𝙚𝙣𝙟𝙖𝙢𝙞𝙣 𝙉𝙚𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙖𝙝𝙪 𝙝𝙖𝙨 𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙙𝙖𝙮 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙣 𝙨𝙤𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙢𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙖 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝 𝘼𝙧𝙖𝙗 𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙣𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙣 "𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙮" 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖 "𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙡𝙞𝙛𝙚 𝙤𝙧 𝙙𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙝" 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙄𝙨𝙧𝙖𝙚𝙡𝙞 𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩. (emphasis added)
If the Arab vote were to hold it could shrink both the main Jewish blocs - Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s - and knock out some of the smaller parties that hoped to pass the electoral threshold of 3.25%.
This would make it very difficult for anyone to form a government without the help or participation of at least one of the Arab party blocs - the United Arab List and the Joint List.
Most of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out working with them, meaning concessions, deals and U-turns may be needed to breach any impasse.
But it's important to reiterate - until results roll in, it's all speculation. (BBC)
Bibi should be dropped in the middle of Gaza with nothing but a pink parasol to defend himself.
Only in a rabid right wing government is high levels of voting considered a national emergency.
Turnout data may help explain why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is worried about the pace of voting. With just over three hours until polls close, turnout in the five towns where his Likud party won its strongest support in 2022 was below the national rate by up to 10 percentage points.
ah, that's why he wanted to extend voting hours today. (and was denied)
There needs to be another court to stop the clownshoes lolyer Blanche who has definitely been making plans to screw with Alaska. This is despite the ballot very CLEARLY saying who the incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is. I am not even sure the second Dan Sullivan would get enough votes to make up the difference with Peltola, who is awesome.
So keep top eye, folks, for Maladministration 2.0 fuckery. And of course never rule anything out with Taney Court 2.0!
Preach!
BREAKING
Bolsonaro the Younger flees Brazil, sets up shadow government at Leggo-My-Eggo
That sounds familiar.