Ok, I'll give you WI and PA as "meaningless" (although certainly not a sign of strength vis-a-vis Warren's electability). That's 20 electoral votes for PA, and 10 for WI. Trump won by 34 votes. Ergo, Michigan (16 votes) seems important under the original premise of this discussion line.
Sure, one can wait until November 2020 to test the polls, or one can make current judgments based on available information. Depends on your capacity for risk. One can't go back in time to change the preferred outcome.
I understand your Schrodinger's cat analogy, but in this situation I would suggest more Occam's Razor.
It’s amazing to me that a woman is attacking another woman for speaking her conscience. Attacking her as a Manchurian Candidate - because she defended herself against Patroness Saint Hillary. It’s also amazing how obsessed y’all are with her.
I think Biden’s running first because of name recognition, and because he offers a return to normalcy, and they’re desperate to get the orange one out so the world will quit spinning around them and leaving little Big Mac piles that have to be cleaned up.
Among the olds (of which I’m technically one, I guess), all the Nazi crap is mortifying, as is the Russia crap. For the younger of us, we didn’t hate the Germans, but we sure as hell hated Nazis. Those folks may have voted for him, but now they may want to correct that move.
[Pause to think of all the shit Trump has done in office.]
Yes, there will be oppo research available.
We’re worrying because we’re Progressives—we worry even when we win something. (That and, you know, the actual world’s at stake.)
Former Senator and Secretary of State John Kerry has "wondered aloud" if he should've run again. He must've "wondered aloud" in an empty room because if he'd "wondered" this within earshot of anyone alive in 2004, he would've heard a reflexive "hell no."
You little mind reader, you, Stephen. As soon as I read the first sentence, I said, out loud, Oh. Goddamn. No.
Curses! I've been found out!
I hope so.
Yes, of course it could mean that. The margin of error works in both directions.
My point was that a +1 or -2 in a poll with a margin of error higher than that is meaningless.
So what we have is sort of a Schrodinger glass. We won't know how full it is until we observe the election in November 2020.
Ok, I'll give you WI and PA as "meaningless" (although certainly not a sign of strength vis-a-vis Warren's electability). That's 20 electoral votes for PA, and 10 for WI. Trump won by 34 votes. Ergo, Michigan (16 votes) seems important under the original premise of this discussion line.
Sure, one can wait until November 2020 to test the polls, or one can make current judgments based on available information. Depends on your capacity for risk. One can't go back in time to change the preferred outcome.
I understand your Schrodinger's cat analogy, but in this situation I would suggest more Occam's Razor.
I like that. Harris could be in charge of prosecuting Trump, Barr, etc.
Can somebody post a picture of Warren with her mouth closed?
Only once. 😉
Most good polls I've ever heard about have a margin of error rate of perhaps +/- 3. That makes the polls cited dead even.
The candidate may have to adopt the party platform but it is in no way binding.
I would happily compromise on the "fog a mirror" requirement. It's really just a guideline.
Yep. Ol Status Quo Joe is the Mustang II https://uploads.disquscdn.c...
It’s amazing to me that a woman is attacking another woman for speaking her conscience. Attacking her as a Manchurian Candidate - because she defended herself against Patroness Saint Hillary. It’s also amazing how obsessed y’all are with her.
I think Biden’s running first because of name recognition, and because he offers a return to normalcy, and they’re desperate to get the orange one out so the world will quit spinning around them and leaving little Big Mac piles that have to be cleaned up.
Among the olds (of which I’m technically one, I guess), all the Nazi crap is mortifying, as is the Russia crap. For the younger of us, we didn’t hate the Germans, but we sure as hell hated Nazis. Those folks may have voted for him, but now they may want to correct that move.
[Pause to think of all the shit Trump has done in office.]
Yes, there will be oppo research available.
We’re worrying because we’re Progressives—we worry even when we win something. (That and, you know, the actual world’s at stake.)
Aww. What could happen between now and next...Thursday.
Former Senator and Secretary of State John Kerry has "wondered aloud" if he should've run again. He must've "wondered aloud" in an empty room because if he'd "wondered" this within earshot of anyone alive in 2004, he would've heard a reflexive "hell no."
You little mind reader, you, Stephen. As soon as I read the first sentence, I said, out loud, Oh. Goddamn. No.
As the driver of an ‘08 Shelby GT 350, I approve this message.