Democrats Blowing Gazillion Dollars On High-Stakes, Tension-Filled California Senate Race

We are still Anyone But Garvey.

Jan 24, 2024

Democratic Senate candidate Adam Schiff frequently asks me for money. Just this week, he sent me a note between debate prep sessions. “It’s critical that we win this race,” he wrote. “We need to abolish the filibuster. Expand the Supreme Court. Overturn Citizens United. And protect reproductive freedom.” This was barely a day after he asked for money because Donald Trump called him “pencil neck” at a New Hampshire rally. “This pencil neck won’t break!” he declared. He’s adorable.

Democrats will only hold the Senate if they win tough races in Montana, Ohio, and possibly Florida. Schiff is running for Senate in California, where voters will send a reasonably liberal Democrat to Congress. The balance of power won’t hinge on the outcome of this specific race, which California Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo bills as “the most inconsequential US Senate race in America.”

Politics is an expensive business, I get it, and Schiff has so far amassed a “war chest” totaling $35 million. That’s reportedly more than twice what any other candidate has raised so far. He could’ve produced a movie musical called Pencil Neck Goes To Washington.

Schiff’s most serious competitor is fellow Democratic House Rep. Katie Porter, who’s also a prodigious fundraiser. During the last election cycle, she raised a reported $25.4 million, around $1 million more than former House speaker Nancy Pelosi, but her Senate campaign’s brought in just $11 million so far. (“Just” is quite relative, compared to other Democratic Senate campaigns outside the state.)

California is large (both in size and population) and it costs money to reach 22 registered million voters. It might’ve been cheaper to keep Dianne Feinstein alive with cybernetic parts.

The mad cash scramble has left some Democrats suffering in down ballot races — ones that are more competitive and could very well determine who controls the House. Democrats have targeted at least nine Republican incumbents in the state, and the money Schiff and Porter are spending on a bruising primary could alter the dynamic of all those races. Even Rep. Barbara Lee’s somewhat piddly $1.3 million cash on hand could help immensely.

“You have really some high-power people running for this seat and an enormous amount of resources going toward them that could go toward other Democrats. And that’s unfortunate,” said Rep. Juan Vargas from California’s 52nd District.

Vargas has already endorsed Schiff, who we should note does share his extensive email list with other House and Senate Democrats. He’s a team player. It’s just there’s only so much cash to go around.

Ally Mutnick at Politico suggests:

The agony of having two of the best fundraisers in the House battle each other has left some in the party hoping that a Republican nabs the second spot in the top-two primary on March 5.

This might seem absurd, but California’s open primary system is a bit weird. There are technically two elections underway for the seat that Laphonza Butler currently holds. (Gov. Gavin Newsom picked Butler to replace Feinstein, but Butler chose not to run for re-election.) The first election will fill the seat from Election Day until the end of the current term on January 3, 2025. The next election is for the full six-year-term that begins afterward. Californians will vote in both primaries on March 5 and both general elections on November 5.

Anyway, if Republican Steve Garvey were to nudge out Porter, who has sent me several emails that sounded alarms about the prospect, then Democrats would rally behind Schiff, who’d have more than enough money to defeat Garvey in November. It’s also a presidential year, so the risk of Garvey actually winning is infinitesimal. During Monday night’s debate, the Democratic candidates hammered Garvey over his record and Porter torched him when he insisted that he was still “undecided” over whether he’d vote for Trump again.

“Once a Dodger, always a Dodger,” Porter told the debate audience. “He just chewed up two-and-a-half minutes of the time to talk about substantive issues in this debate, and he refused to answer the question. Ballots go out in six weeks, Mr. Garvey. This is not the minor leagues. Who will you vote for?”

Garvey’s debate performance was absolutely pathetic, so it seems more likely that both Schiff and Porter will advance to the general and keep flooding my inbox until November. A competitive Senate election among two prominent Democrats would also likely drive up ad rates, making it harder for cash-strapped down ballot Democratic candidates.

The fact that any Democrat might seriously consider hoping Garvey advances to the general only bolsters Lee’s argument that “You’ve got to get to public financing of campaigns.” Otherwise, “there’s never gonna be a level playing field for anyone.”

[Politico]

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