Let’s talk about that final New York Times/Siena poll, a gold standard poll right here at the very end, which is why we’re referring to it with the English word “final.”
If that’s right, then Michigan and Texas are well outside the margin of error, and these races haven’t tightened in their final days, they’ve solidified for the Democrats. And all the way until you get to Alaska, you’ve got what the New York Times calls “sizable leads.” And then you’ve got the fact that usually when things like this break, they break together, one way or another.
Know how Trump likes to brag that he swept all seven swing states? Well, that’s seven Senate races. Would it be so crazy for Dems to sweep all seven?
And what if Abdul El-Sayed indeed ended up with the highest margin of the seven? Wouldn’t that be something? What if he was the absolute strongest candidate, and not the risk that some people wanted us to believe he was? What if he is the generational political talent in that mix?
Questions to ponder as we consider Rep. Haley Stevens and her mindbending meltdown, reportedly spurred on by hurt feelings (Main Character Syndrome) and her weird fiancé who looks like if Buster Bluth had unprotected sex with Uncle Fester and they had a love baby and it got hit on the head with a Looney Tunes anvil.
Anyway, will that kind of a sweep happen? Who knows!
Unfortunately, in Alaska, there are nine men (9) named Dan Sullivan on the ballot and Mary Peltola has executive-decided that it is illegal to vote for any of them. Very unfair of her! (That is not what happened, no matter how much the New York Times wishes it was.)
Of course, there’s more in these polls than just those topline results. They found that in all those states but Maine, the Democratic candidates have net positive favorability ratings. In all the states but Iowa, the Republican nominees have net negative favorability ratings.
But you can see in this graphic that in Iowa, the Dem’s favorables are way higher than the Republican, whose are even. Meanwhile, in Maine they both have very slightly net unfavorables, but who fucking knows. Maine is weird, and both nominees are well-known quantities. That poll above still has Troy Jackson six points ahead, you’ll note.
For more on these polls — and whether we should trust them or yell FAKE POLLS! at them — Nate Cohn, the Times’s polls guy, wrote about that right here.
What else is out there that’s not in those graphics? Well, the Times notes that its recent poll of South Carolina had Lindsey Graham’s undead sister tied with Democrat Annie Andrews. Georgia’s not even in that poll, that’s how fast Jon Ossoff is running away with that race. (A recent poll had him up by 15.) Same with Roy Cooper in North Carolina, which Republicans have totally abandoned now.
Fox News sees the writing on the wall in South Carolina, moving it to “toss-up” last week.
But what about other surprises?
Well, Angie Nixon hasn’t led in a single poll in Florida, but Ashley Moody’s leads haven’t all been totally enormous. In a high turnout environment, that could become a nailbiter.
In Nebraska, Pete Ricketts has led in most polls, but a couple have shown independent Dan Osborn up, and they’ve all been tight. We’ll be keeping our eye on it.
Mississippi hasn’t been polled for shit, but suddenly a lot of people think Scott Colom, an excellent candidate, could beat Cindy Hyde-Smith, who thinks you should just eat cheaper proteins if you can’t afford the bejeweled Vienna Sausages you like. The only poll taken there in October only had her up by three. Is that our sleeper? Could be.
What about … Louisiana? It’s not just one poll that’s had the two candidates tied. It’s two. Both right here at the end. Do you even know the candidates’ names? Us neither. Oh wait, we are the journalist here, we are supposed to look that up. It’s Republican Rep. Julia Letlow vs. Democrat Jamie Davis, who is a farmer. And the two polls before that, the only other ones taken this cycle, only had Letlow up by four.
Is that our sleeper? Could be.
Could there be more than one sleeper? Could be.
Could there be lots of House races that are on hardly anybody’s radar? Could be.
Anyway, Nate Silver says it’s going to be a “blue tsunami” and Harry Enten the polls nerd at CNN says there’s been a “polling earthquake,” but the only way to make it come true is to get to the polls and get everybody else to the polls, so get in touch with your local campaigns, or if you don’t have any, figure out who’s close to you and what you can do tonight and tomorrow. Maybe some phone-banking!
Next 24 hours in America probably determine whether the country ever finds its way back to being a halfway respectable democracy, but no pressure or whatever, it’s only the fate of the world at stake.
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According to TNR, Stevens' flippidy flop has united Dems so much that El-Sayed has seen a huge last-minute surge in donations. I would say she's done the exact opposite of whatever she thought she was doing there. Or was it all 11th dimensional chess? (that was a joke, I don't think she's at all that savvy)
As much as I want to believe Maine will finally send the utterly reprehensible Susan Collins packing, I’ve seen this script too many times to get my hopes up.
She’s the quintessential turd that just won’t flush.