The momentum is palpable, and most importantly, logical. Harris is a highly capable, highly qualified, intelligent and articulate leader under age 60. Trump is, you know. He’s assaulting and bullying women working to protect the sanctity of Arlington National Cemetery, most recently. Tomorrow he will desecrate another memorial, abuse another victim, and steal money to pay his many criminal defense bills and line his pockets. So he’s holding steady. And RFKrank will have no discernible effect on this clown show.
But how can Trump lose when he keeps talking about energy and wind and how there's no energy if the wind stops blowing and how the wind blows all around and then just stops? Apparently he's never heard of battery if it doesn't somehow involve a shark nearby, but not to worry! As long as Trump keeps his foul, turd-filled mouth open, the wind will never stop blowing.
Huh, I just realized something. Most countries don't have enough surface area to use wind to power the entire country, but the USA has plenty of space, so it might actually be a large part of the power supply there, especially if you can find enough places where the wind blows hard at night to balance out solar power. That way you would need a lot les batteries, making electricity that much cheaper.
Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by 2 points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%.
I'm still baffled by this lack of support for Biden.
I suppose I can see the 18- to 34-year-old demographic not supporting Biden as much because OLD, but that's the only reason I can think of. A lot of his policies were meant to help them, but I'm sure they couldn't see it through all the right-wing blustering about how they couldn't even buy eggs or bacon anymore.
Nate Silver (ptui!) decided Trump is more likely to win PA this week, but I suspect he based that entirely on one article in the Philly Inquirer talking about Latino voters in Reading who aren't fully committed yet. We've got 9 weeks and we can still blow this open. Casey is beating the pants off McCormick. Shapiro is going to be all over the state for the next two months. We got game. I know we can do this.
"nobody else ranks them by how much they make Trump poop his pants."
While in the abstract I appreciate that analysis, I'm not sure I want to know what the units of measure are or how many of those units the reaction is. Can you report the ranking in equivalent units of ketchup stains on the wall or something?
Stories about this poll are careful to remind us that Trump outperformed the polling in 2020. But even more important than the raw numbers is the excitement gap. It don't matter a damn if some random Cletus likes Trump more than Harris, unless he actually gets out and votes. And this ain't 2020.
Y'all remember 2020, with its huge enthusiastic rallies, clusterfuck boat parades and jackasses in pickup trucks roaring all over town with big, billowing Trump flags? THAT'S what you see when a Presidential candidate is positioned to outperform the polls.
2024? Not so much. Trump's rallies are half-empty and so dispirited that most people leave before they're over. If there have been any hilariously maladroit Trump parades of any kind, I haven't heard of them. And I haven't seen a single Trump Truck. Not one. And I've got plenty of obnoxious neighbors who are that type.
You know what I do see and hear about? A 70,000 person Zoom call for Harris. 70,000 REPUBLICANS. For Harris.
I also hear that Trump campaign staffers are quietly telling reporters that their only real hope is that a miracle happens at the debate. If there even is a debate.
Add a couple of points to the polls on the Harris side for the enthusiasm gap, if this continues. It would be more, but we gotta account for some voter suppression, Republicans have had four years to up their game, here.
And run up those numbers, we may need House seats to win this thing for reals.
This poll finds Ruben Gallego in Arizona beating Kari Lake in the Senate race by 15 damn points, 56 to 41.
It finds Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen beating her Republican opponent Sam Brown 55 to 41.
And in the North Carolina governor’s race, where nice person Josh Stein is running against super bigot freak Mark Robinson, he’s up by 11 points, 54 to 43.
And if those numbers are correct I find it very hard to believe someone like Gallego would win by double digits but Trump beats Harris.
“And that is why you come to Wonkette for all your polling analysis, because nobody else ranks them by how much they make Trump poop his pants.”
It’s just Science!
The momentum is palpable, and most importantly, logical. Harris is a highly capable, highly qualified, intelligent and articulate leader under age 60. Trump is, you know. He’s assaulting and bullying women working to protect the sanctity of Arlington National Cemetery, most recently. Tomorrow he will desecrate another memorial, abuse another victim, and steal money to pay his many criminal defense bills and line his pockets. So he’s holding steady. And RFKrank will have no discernible effect on this clown show.
But how can Trump lose when he keeps talking about energy and wind and how there's no energy if the wind stops blowing and how the wind blows all around and then just stops? Apparently he's never heard of battery if it doesn't somehow involve a shark nearby, but not to worry! As long as Trump keeps his foul, turd-filled mouth open, the wind will never stop blowing.
Huh, I just realized something. Most countries don't have enough surface area to use wind to power the entire country, but the USA has plenty of space, so it might actually be a large part of the power supply there, especially if you can find enough places where the wind blows hard at night to balance out solar power. That way you would need a lot les batteries, making electricity that much cheaper.
Ta, Evan. I ignore polls, since the only one that counts is on Election Day. That said, I like seeing TFG squirm.
How is WI polling?
Telegraph Harris +4
Emerson Trump +1
Morning Consult Harris +8
Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by 2 points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%.
I'm still baffled by this lack of support for Biden.
I suppose I can see the 18- to 34-year-old demographic not supporting Biden as much because OLD, but that's the only reason I can think of. A lot of his policies were meant to help them, but I'm sure they couldn't see it through all the right-wing blustering about how they couldn't even buy eggs or bacon anymore.
Same.
Nate Silver (ptui!) decided Trump is more likely to win PA this week, but I suspect he based that entirely on one article in the Philly Inquirer talking about Latino voters in Reading who aren't fully committed yet. We've got 9 weeks and we can still blow this open. Casey is beating the pants off McCormick. Shapiro is going to be all over the state for the next two months. We got game. I know we can do this.
"nobody else ranks them by how much they make Trump poop his pants."
While in the abstract I appreciate that analysis, I'm not sure I want to know what the units of measure are or how many of those units the reaction is. Can you report the ranking in equivalent units of ketchup stains on the wall or something?
So if I'm reading this right we are now having poop polls?
I long for the days where we read chicken entrails.
Stories about this poll are careful to remind us that Trump outperformed the polling in 2020. But even more important than the raw numbers is the excitement gap. It don't matter a damn if some random Cletus likes Trump more than Harris, unless he actually gets out and votes. And this ain't 2020.
Y'all remember 2020, with its huge enthusiastic rallies, clusterfuck boat parades and jackasses in pickup trucks roaring all over town with big, billowing Trump flags? THAT'S what you see when a Presidential candidate is positioned to outperform the polls.
2024? Not so much. Trump's rallies are half-empty and so dispirited that most people leave before they're over. If there have been any hilariously maladroit Trump parades of any kind, I haven't heard of them. And I haven't seen a single Trump Truck. Not one. And I've got plenty of obnoxious neighbors who are that type.
You know what I do see and hear about? A 70,000 person Zoom call for Harris. 70,000 REPUBLICANS. For Harris.
I also hear that Trump campaign staffers are quietly telling reporters that their only real hope is that a miracle happens at the debate. If there even is a debate.
Add a couple of points to the polls on the Harris side for the enthusiasm gap, if this continues. It would be more, but we gotta account for some voter suppression, Republicans have had four years to up their game, here.
And run up those numbers, we may need House seats to win this thing for reals.
One could also point out that on every vote since Dobbs in which abortion was an issue, the pro-choice side massively outperformed the polls.
Up and down the ballot, abortion is very much an issue on the presidential and every congressional and governor race.
Polls mean nothing really but these numbers are sure to get under the crazy man's skin. That is good enough for me.
I don't think polls have any relevance this year, the first post Dobbs election.
Vote early. We need to make sure this happens.
OK, I'm going to break my nine-year-old rule and allow myself a moment of giddyness! DAMN THIS FEELS GOOD!
my stern rule's from like 2008. and i haven't felt like this since then...
This poll finds Ruben Gallego in Arizona beating Kari Lake in the Senate race by 15 damn points, 56 to 41.
It finds Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen beating her Republican opponent Sam Brown 55 to 41.
And in the North Carolina governor’s race, where nice person Josh Stein is running against super bigot freak Mark Robinson, he’s up by 11 points, 54 to 43.
And if those numbers are correct I find it very hard to believe someone like Gallego would win by double digits but Trump beats Harris.
That part’s very strange! Who thinks Keri Lake or Mark Robinson is too weird, but Donald Trump is just fine?
Let's play around on 270toWin.com, and put NV, AZ, and GA into the "Dem" side.....
Do that, and the failed casino mogul will have to win ALL FOUR of WI, MI, PA and NC to win the election.
He's going to lose those, plus Florida and possibly Texas with coattails downballot for Harris.