No Leader will put up a losing bill... people don't pay any attention to VICTORIES so why would they pay attention to losses? If biden truly has 36% support after giving us the best economic response to COVID in the World and finally getting Infrastructure done and helping parents pay their bills and expanding Healthcare to 60 million Americans WHAT MORE CAN WE DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?
I agree that the Fed waited too long to raise interest rates, but disagree that the right time was “a dozen years” ago, which would be 2011. Remember the recession in 2008-2009, and how long it took for the economy to climb out of that hole? It took the Fed some time to even drop rates in the first place. I was able to buy long-term municipal bonds at around 4 - 4.5% interest rates from 2008 until mostly through Obama’s 2nd term. After that, rates kept going down and ended up at 1-2% throughout the TFG administration, and a lot of my prior bond holdings were redeemed early by the issuers so they could re-issue at lower rates.
I absolutely do agree that rates should have started to climb at the end of Obama’s 2nd term and throughout the 1st 3 years of TFG’s term. I firmly believe the reason they didn’t is because TFG benefited personally from lower interest rates, because he had so much debt. He was very noisy about how the Fed should keep rates low - regardless of whether that was best for the economy - and Powell knew that TFG wouldn’t hesitate to fire him.
So now we’ve got this mess because the rates have gone up considerably within a very short period of time, which is causing all kinds of problems for banks (too much of their long-term assets tied up in low-interest rate mortgages and investments), as well as consumers and businesses who are forced to get loans at ever-increasing rates.
Fuckers are going to make Biden play a game of chicken.
If the economy crashes, they know enough voters will be stupid enough to blame Biden so that it'll hurt him politically. And that's all they care about. Cynical pieces of shit.
Lawrence Tribe got on board. I don't recall his exact reasoning, but I think it came down to how the powers of one branch cannot cancel the powers of another, and if one branch is not doing its Constitutional duty, the branch ultimately responsible-- in the case, the Executive-- should certainly act. If anyone can explain further, I'd love to understand it better.
Glad I checked back right when I did! My fingers must have been burning.
I can see your point on timing. I think the end of Obamas 2nd term was already too late to start raising rates. The assets bubble(s) had already resumed by the beginning of Obama's second term.
I don't think the Fed's decisions were based on TFG so much as on the entire Finance sector. They pretty much ran themselves insolvent from 199-2007 (repeal of Glass-Steagal, Commodities Modernization Act etc. to the collapse of Lehman Brothers). I think the Fed cut interest rates so low and left them there, below the true rate of inflation, to let the Finance sector recapitalize itself on the backs of the consumer.
But yes, TFG and Powell did behave as you describe.
It wasn't hard to see that the Fed would have to raise rates, even before COVID. That the conventional wisdom of the Finance sector seems to have thought rates would stay so far below inflation forever tells me they thought no matter what they did, they'd get bailed out. For finance capitalism to work, interest rates have to be just barely above the rate of inflation. Too far above or too far below; and the whole thing crashes and burns, albeit for different reasons.
It's really weird right now because we have roaring demand, labor is at an historic premium; yet Finance is teetering on the edge due to insane risk-taking.
The state of Commercial Real Estate is being under-examined. It's worse than anyone is saying, and so much of the finance underlying CRE is really shaky. The big banks have way more exposure to crypto than anyone is letting on. With the raises in interest rates, they're caught pantsless and very low on liquid cash. Big depositors are pulling deposits fast right now, and it's a very volatile and hazardous situation.
TFG sure didn't do anything but make things worse, but that may have been "baked into the cake" already.
My problem is that reading "Marx For Dummies" and so on has blown all the suspense for me. I feel like I know what's going to happen, but just don't know the timing. I may be wrong, but so far I haven't been surprised by anything that's happened as I've watched Finance go from 5% of GDP to over 40%, while edging out productive economic activity.
No Leader will put up a losing bill... people don't pay any attention to VICTORIES so why would they pay attention to losses? If biden truly has 36% support after giving us the best economic response to COVID in the World and finally getting Infrastructure done and helping parents pay their bills and expanding Healthcare to 60 million Americans WHAT MORE CAN WE DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?
McConnell proved years ago that he has no honor.
I agree that the Fed waited too long to raise interest rates, but disagree that the right time was “a dozen years” ago, which would be 2011. Remember the recession in 2008-2009, and how long it took for the economy to climb out of that hole? It took the Fed some time to even drop rates in the first place. I was able to buy long-term municipal bonds at around 4 - 4.5% interest rates from 2008 until mostly through Obama’s 2nd term. After that, rates kept going down and ended up at 1-2% throughout the TFG administration, and a lot of my prior bond holdings were redeemed early by the issuers so they could re-issue at lower rates.
I absolutely do agree that rates should have started to climb at the end of Obama’s 2nd term and throughout the 1st 3 years of TFG’s term. I firmly believe the reason they didn’t is because TFG benefited personally from lower interest rates, because he had so much debt. He was very noisy about how the Fed should keep rates low - regardless of whether that was best for the economy - and Powell knew that TFG wouldn’t hesitate to fire him.
So now we’ve got this mess because the rates have gone up considerably within a very short period of time, which is causing all kinds of problems for banks (too much of their long-term assets tied up in low-interest rate mortgages and investments), as well as consumers and businesses who are forced to get loans at ever-increasing rates.
Tl;dr: As always, TFG is largely to blame.
Fuckers are going to make Biden play a game of chicken.
If the economy crashes, they know enough voters will be stupid enough to blame Biden so that it'll hurt him politically. And that's all they care about. Cynical pieces of shit.
I've got a bad feeling about this...
Holding the country hostage for personal gain. Those K Street and TV gigs don’t organize themselves for failed Congress critters, you know!
Lawrence Tribe got on board. I don't recall his exact reasoning, but I think it came down to how the powers of one branch cannot cancel the powers of another, and if one branch is not doing its Constitutional duty, the branch ultimately responsible-- in the case, the Executive-- should certainly act. If anyone can explain further, I'd love to understand it better.
I'll have to ask Chuck Todd and Andrea Mitchell.
/s
“New phone, who ‘dis?” —DOJ
Glad I checked back right when I did! My fingers must have been burning.
I can see your point on timing. I think the end of Obamas 2nd term was already too late to start raising rates. The assets bubble(s) had already resumed by the beginning of Obama's second term.
I don't think the Fed's decisions were based on TFG so much as on the entire Finance sector. They pretty much ran themselves insolvent from 199-2007 (repeal of Glass-Steagal, Commodities Modernization Act etc. to the collapse of Lehman Brothers). I think the Fed cut interest rates so low and left them there, below the true rate of inflation, to let the Finance sector recapitalize itself on the backs of the consumer.
But yes, TFG and Powell did behave as you describe.
It wasn't hard to see that the Fed would have to raise rates, even before COVID. That the conventional wisdom of the Finance sector seems to have thought rates would stay so far below inflation forever tells me they thought no matter what they did, they'd get bailed out. For finance capitalism to work, interest rates have to be just barely above the rate of inflation. Too far above or too far below; and the whole thing crashes and burns, albeit for different reasons.
It's really weird right now because we have roaring demand, labor is at an historic premium; yet Finance is teetering on the edge due to insane risk-taking.
The state of Commercial Real Estate is being under-examined. It's worse than anyone is saying, and so much of the finance underlying CRE is really shaky. The big banks have way more exposure to crypto than anyone is letting on. With the raises in interest rates, they're caught pantsless and very low on liquid cash. Big depositors are pulling deposits fast right now, and it's a very volatile and hazardous situation.
TFG sure didn't do anything but make things worse, but that may have been "baked into the cake" already.
My problem is that reading "Marx For Dummies" and so on has blown all the suspense for me. I feel like I know what's going to happen, but just don't know the timing. I may be wrong, but so far I haven't been surprised by anything that's happened as I've watched Finance go from 5% of GDP to over 40%, while edging out productive economic activity.
I've long assumed that he is nurtured with the tears of orphans.
,.men to do nothing, IIRC.
Ooops, wrong thread. Sorry.
I think you’re applying conventional wisdom, which sadly no longer seems to apply.
Wrong thread?
Yeah, I was posting about the PAB case and forgot what thread I was on, so I deleted it.