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ziggywiggy's avatar

Last night the Empire State Building was in yellow and blue in honor of Ukrainian Independence Day.

https://substack.com/profile/155618292-ziggywiggy/note/c-66672453?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=2knfuc

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Crip Dyke's avatar

Headline at ArsTechnica: It's rare, but your EV's lithium battery can actually catch fire!

Not at headline at ArsTechnica: It's rare, but your ICE car's gasoline can actually catch fire!

I mean, I should be whatevs, because as good as they are about some things, they're still owned by Condé Nast and they're still in it for the clicks. But they're pretty terrible about EV coverage. The other day they wrote a whole article about "slumping" EV sales.

Yeah, it turns out that every single major manufacturer of EVs is experiencing sales growth except Tesla, and every nation is experiencing growth in their national EV markets, and the world as a whole is experiencing growth in the EV market, but the growth in EV sales in 2022 and 2023 wasn't as significant as the growth in 2019 in percentage terms -- sure it was more in absolute terms, but not in % terms -- because of pandemic effects on supply chains that temporarily raised the costs of batteries.

Sure, projecting compounded growth is tricky, but VW also just announced that in 2030 it might only manufacture 85% of the batteries it was thinking 2 years ago it might manufacture because of a combination of uncertainty in projected total sales (which would still be hugely higher in 2030 than they are this year, even using the lower number) and an uncertainty in which battery chemistry will be optimal in 2030. In other words, they're not even saying that their total growth is only going to be 85% of what they thought it was going to be. They're just saying that their total growth in one particular battery chemistry is only guaranteed to be 85% of what they thought it would be, and they're fine with adding capacity later if that turns out to be an underestimate.

This -- worldwide growth that was slightly slower than expected worldwide growth because of a known problem that was fully resolved by late last year combined with a single company rejiggering their plans for building their own batteries so that that capacity increases massively, but also not quite as massively as they thought they might increase it two years ago -- is the "EV slump" of the ArsTechnica article.

Seriously, I don't know how humanity is going to survive.

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