POP QUIZ! Who is ahead in the important swing states of Colorado and Pennsylvania? ANSWER! According to a new CNN/ORC poll, NO ONE KNOWS! How about in Nevada? Or Ohio? Or Florida? MAYBE TRUMP! So that is VERY FUN! What about in "two-way matchups," where for some reason voters aren't asked whether they might vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson (getting 13 percentish) or Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein (3 percent)? Well, then Hillary Clinton is leading nationwide, but WHY IS THAT A POLL STAPLE? This election may for all intents and purposes be a two-way matchup as far as "which two people might become president," but it is not a two-way matchup as far as "how can you spoiler this election with a dumb throwaway vote for an idiot." It is a fucking counterfactual, and it is stupid, and they need to stop asking that, but they will not, because "reason."
I hope it is close enough that the wingnut contingent wants to hold up the swearing in until it dawns on them that Barry Bamz the Kenyan Socialist Muslim Transvestite Prostitute Dictator with a huge stimulus package is going to have more time to veto their bullshit. And that their social issues are DOA with an even split SCOTUS where one of the right wingers actually understands what the word freedom means anyway. Then they have to fold under that pressure and be primaried in 2018. There is just no win for them even if they win this election. The opposite possibility is that Trump is elected and destroys what's left of their pigfucker collective they call a party.
I'm not convinced that it isn't connected to the average age and/or income level of a person that still has a landline(My understanding is that's who gets polled) or the people on the street in a shopping center at 11:30am. They want to hold on to the past so they are afraid of Hillary. They want to have a future so they are afraid of Trump.
While it's worth freaking out over polls right now, it's not worth freaking out because of FiveThirtyEight, which has descended into clickbait and hackery. There's pretty solid evidence that they're just trying to draw as many eyeballs as possible; the analysis at electoral-vote.com is pretty damning here. Sam Wang had Clinton's chances at 78% last week and has them back up to 87% last I checked (about twenty minutes ago). None of the other aggregators are as sanguine about Clinton's prospects as Wang is, but none of them are as pessimistic as FiveThirtyEight is, either.
That said, yeah, go donate some more cash and time to Clinton's campaign anyway, and throw some money at Senate/House races too if you can spare it, because the shitgibbon doesn't just need to be defeated; he needs to be buried. But it's probably not as bad as Silver seems to think it is, and it probably hasn't been for the whole race.
So they can serve as spoilers in an even worse capacity than they did in 2000? Why the fuck would any self-respecting liberal or leftist actually want that? Splitting the vote doesn't work in a first-past-the-post system, and never will. Things like this depress me almost as much as people actually voting for the shitgibbon.
I assume it will be like Mayweather/Pacquiao, but more disappointing. This time though, the guy I think is a prick will lose. Mayweather is good at boxing, Trump is only good at grifting.
and we thank you for your service.
I'm hoping that at least as many potential Trump supporters as Clinton supporters throw away their votes on third parties.
That would be: all of them.
But, what if I don't have knees?
I hope it is close enough that the wingnut contingent wants to hold up the swearing in until it dawns on them that Barry Bamz the Kenyan Socialist Muslim Transvestite Prostitute Dictator with a huge stimulus package is going to have more time to veto their bullshit. And that their social issues are DOA with an even split SCOTUS where one of the right wingers actually understands what the word freedom means anyway. Then they have to fold under that pressure and be primaried in 2018. There is just no win for them even if they win this election. The opposite possibility is that Trump is elected and destroys what's left of their pigfucker collective they call a party.
So white christers have nothing to worry about? Listen, if panicking makes you feel better, go for it.
I'm not convinced that it isn't connected to the average age and/or income level of a person that still has a landline(My understanding is that's who gets polled) or the people on the street in a shopping center at 11:30am. They want to hold on to the past so they are afraid of Hillary. They want to have a future so they are afraid of Trump.
While it's worth freaking out over polls right now, it's not worth freaking out because of FiveThirtyEight, which has descended into clickbait and hackery. There's pretty solid evidence that they're just trying to draw as many eyeballs as possible; the analysis at electoral-vote.com is pretty damning here. Sam Wang had Clinton's chances at 78% last week and has them back up to 87% last I checked (about twenty minutes ago). None of the other aggregators are as sanguine about Clinton's prospects as Wang is, but none of them are as pessimistic as FiveThirtyEight is, either.
That said, yeah, go donate some more cash and time to Clinton's campaign anyway, and throw some money at Senate/House races too if you can spare it, because the shitgibbon doesn't just need to be defeated; he needs to be buried. But it's probably not as bad as Silver seems to think it is, and it probably hasn't been for the whole race.
So they can serve as spoilers in an even worse capacity than they did in 2000? Why the fuck would any self-respecting liberal or leftist actually want that? Splitting the vote doesn't work in a first-past-the-post system, and never will. Things like this depress me almost as much as people actually voting for the shitgibbon.
I assume it will be like Mayweather/Pacquiao, but more disappointing. This time though, the guy I think is a prick will lose. Mayweather is good at boxing, Trump is only good at grifting.
https://m.youtube.com/watch...
It's an interesting poll to drill down in. Hopefully the rurals in Ohio swing Johnson and NE OH is successful in GOTV bigly
BRB, crying in a pool of my own vomit...
I'll have some of whatever you're having + tequila...
This is why we have got to move past the advertising model in journalism. Thank you for your rational words.
I shave my ass every morning, but why did you do all that other stuff?