The biggest gist seems to be that the polls had a lot more responses from younger left leaning voters than you have as voted as a percentage of the general electorate. So it mostly looks like a sampling issue. Later in the article they also found that Hong voters were more likely to respond to a poll than Crowley voters, and also that people who backed candidates that dropped out tended to break more strongly for Crowley.
That is a good article. And I agree with the author's conclusion, that the polling wasn't really that bad. Primaries are hard. One candidate had a great deal of appeal to very online young voters. That candidate was likewise very young, and very very green and made some mistakes her opponents could make hay out of. It's not just what you say, but even how you structure a sentence so it can't be snipped. Knowing and doing that require experience at some level, or an extremely good advisor.
And first-time voters will be all excited about it and respond to polls. I first voted in 1984 and the novelty has long since worn off.
Like as they pointed out Senate primary generally have margin of error rates around 13%. The main thing that's wild about this particular race is that the poles seemingly were off closer to a tune of 20%, And looking at the article you can see why that might've happened
Minnesota peeps, you gotta mount up. The rightwing media human centipede is fully powered up, and it will not stop till it destroys Democrats.
The job is not done till Election Day and that's only for this election. But make sure you're ready for the big dance. And watch out for FUD about Flanagan, especially with friendly people in the so-called MSM ready to deploy "Whatabouts!"
Remember, Democrats need to be all things to all voters; Republicans only need *excuses* to get votes!
Tafoya is dum as dirt. Watching the little kids from WI beat up on the little kids from MO in the LLWS while day drinking at our neighborhood hang. Go WI!
"Coach Obama! It's almost halftime and your team needs some kind of miracle right now to stay competitive! How are you going to turn this around?"
"Well Ms. Tafoya I could give you a scripted answer but I won't. This time I'll just ask you "What the fuck are you talking about?" We are up 25 points in all the polling; their quarterback fell asleep again out there; the GOP is running a playbook from the 1950s; the people in the stands can't buy gas to go home for less than $4 a gallon and by the time we reach halftime it will be over $5 a gallon; no one has bought the hot dogs because they are too damn expensive. What part of any of that sounds like we are losing? By the way, Ms. Tafoya, my wife wanted me to tell you that you need to wipe that white stuff off your chin before you go on camera. She thinks you are setting a bad example."
Yeah, the MN DFL (Democratic Farmer Labor Party, a weird relic of Humphrey's red-baiting rise to power) may not be able to screw this up. They sure can, of course. But for a mid-term election, the Twin Cities Metro area people from center to the far left end are PISSED OFF AND MOTIVATED.
I've heard radical anarchist types saying they'd turn out for Angie Freakin' Craig were that the only option. And that's not something those people have ever said before.
Ta, Dok. Yes, let's all be on #TeamFight. When we vote, we WIN!
"a stiff upper lip"
It hasn't the same resonance, post Mara a Lago.
It's become of more a cosmetic thing.
Well to her credit she didn’t say we’re all going to die like Ernst from Iowa.
See? I can say nice things.
Good article from over at Strength in Numbers about why the polling might've been so wrong about Hong.
https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/2026-08-13-wisconsin-poll-reanalysis?r=25ocek&utm_medium=ios
The biggest gist seems to be that the polls had a lot more responses from younger left leaning voters than you have as voted as a percentage of the general electorate. So it mostly looks like a sampling issue. Later in the article they also found that Hong voters were more likely to respond to a poll than Crowley voters, and also that people who backed candidates that dropped out tended to break more strongly for Crowley.
That is a good article. And I agree with the author's conclusion, that the polling wasn't really that bad. Primaries are hard. One candidate had a great deal of appeal to very online young voters. That candidate was likewise very young, and very very green and made some mistakes her opponents could make hay out of. It's not just what you say, but even how you structure a sentence so it can't be snipped. Knowing and doing that require experience at some level, or an extremely good advisor.
And first-time voters will be all excited about it and respond to polls. I first voted in 1984 and the novelty has long since worn off.
Like as they pointed out Senate primary generally have margin of error rates around 13%. The main thing that's wild about this particular race is that the poles seemingly were off closer to a tune of 20%, And looking at the article you can see why that might've happened
I saw a video on the history of Highlights for Children magazine. Has anyone done a Goofus and Gallant with Fatberg and Obama? It seems like a natural
Gallant laughs off the press' obsession with him wearing a tan suit
Goofus calls reporters "piggie" when they ask him questions that don't praise him
An entire little parody magazine, "Highlights for Republicans", would be funny.
MINN-A-SOAT-AHHH
NOM NOM NOM
"Ask your doctor about fast-acting twice a day Tafoya, and get back to living".
Both the name and her look are giving evening network news pharmaceutical commercial vibes. Leaks and weak streams and such.
Do you have incurable dumbass?
Tafoya is a new treatment that will put a smile back on your face.
She's a dope.
Indeed, a total smooth-brain even by NFL sideline reporter standards, which is saying a LOT.
Agreed.
OT:
What sort of person sells their home to an unsolicited text message?
I'm getting unsolicited text messages asking me if I want to sell the house I sold in 2009.
Sure, I'll sell it to you; cash up front of course, no receipt needed or given....
The sort of person that is part of the 32 percent that supports PAB.
"Hey, Bob, are you ready to sell your house?"
"Sorry, you texted the wrong number.'
"Okay, thanks. Hey, are you interested in selling your house?"
< block>
A moran.
OT: The DNC wants me to send them $450 right away!
lol
Sure, chief. I'll get right on that soon as I'm done shoving my dominant hand into an operating garbage disposal.
Minnesota peeps, you gotta mount up. The rightwing media human centipede is fully powered up, and it will not stop till it destroys Democrats.
The job is not done till Election Day and that's only for this election. But make sure you're ready for the big dance. And watch out for FUD about Flanagan, especially with friendly people in the so-called MSM ready to deploy "Whatabouts!"
Remember, Democrats need to be all things to all voters; Republicans only need *excuses* to get votes!
Agreed.
Love your ties, friend!
O/T
Went out and about yesterday, and brought a camera. Then someone switched off the sun! A great day out
https://substack.com/profile/96807721-jens-tingleff/note/c-314139991?r=1lmxbd&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web
Very cool!
nice!
Tafoya is dum as dirt. Watching the little kids from WI beat up on the little kids from MO in the LLWS while day drinking at our neighborhood hang. Go WI!
The Celtic fire blazing fiercely in the path of Peggy Flanagan shall scorch and blister all opponents.
"Coach Obama! It's almost halftime and your team needs some kind of miracle right now to stay competitive! How are you going to turn this around?"
"Well Ms. Tafoya I could give you a scripted answer but I won't. This time I'll just ask you "What the fuck are you talking about?" We are up 25 points in all the polling; their quarterback fell asleep again out there; the GOP is running a playbook from the 1950s; the people in the stands can't buy gas to go home for less than $4 a gallon and by the time we reach halftime it will be over $5 a gallon; no one has bought the hot dogs because they are too damn expensive. What part of any of that sounds like we are losing? By the way, Ms. Tafoya, my wife wanted me to tell you that you need to wipe that white stuff off your chin before you go on camera. She thinks you are setting a bad example."
"M"
PAB sending in his ICE goons to invade MN is going to result in a big blue wave there.
Yeah, the MN DFL (Democratic Farmer Labor Party, a weird relic of Humphrey's red-baiting rise to power) may not be able to screw this up. They sure can, of course. But for a mid-term election, the Twin Cities Metro area people from center to the far left end are PISSED OFF AND MOTIVATED.
I've heard radical anarchist types saying they'd turn out for Angie Freakin' Craig were that the only option. And that's not something those people have ever said before.
That press release showing ICE goons with their new taser gloves is just tossing more fuel on the fire.
"Boss! It ain't working! We need to do something else."
"Double down. It always works."
Double down on the double downing!!