I’ll believe Ted Cruz can be beaten when I see him rolling his suitcase toward the exits, Cancun style. Sucks about Jon Tester, he’s done a good job for Montana and is nobody’s idea of a flaming liberal.
If the Dems really get out and vote Trump will lose the popular vote by enough to make the Electors wonder if maybe they should follow the will of the people. Georgia will still be hand counting votes after the inauguration and neutralize themselves.
I'm glad my swing state of Merland is finally starting to go for Harris. Now if folks around here could just wake up and smell the rot coming off Hogan, that would be much appreciated.
"We see Harris up by six in one national poll, four in another. (Also there was Echelon — a Republican pollster — which has Harris up 52-45 nationally.)"
Heading off any naysaying about the value of national presidential preference polls --- yes, yes, the actual election is 51 separate contests in the states and DC.
But, the margin in nationwide surveys can be instructive, particularly as it approaches or surpasses the margin of error.
And, before you ask -- I just checked -- the national polling average for Clinton v. Trump for this week in 2016 -- Clinton was polling ahead of Trump by just +1.5 points. (On this day in 2020, the average showed Biden ahead, +7.3 points.)
So +4, +6 and +7 for Harris on Sept. 27, though not determinative, is good news -- and a far different state of affairs than in 2016.
I'm convinced by this point that polls are shit and always have been, and paying attention to them is a waste of time. Keep in mind that in the last few elections, Democrats have consistently outperformed their polling, across the country.
It's easy to dismiss. Polling is a statistical science, meaning that to use the tool properly one must be comfortable with uncertainty and probability.
We also need to recognize that in 2016, pollsters got a lot wrong. In 2020, voters confounded pollsters by showing up in far greater numbers than usual -- voter turnout in 2020 was the greatest since before the Election of 1976. All the usual assumptions, which are necessary when making statistical models, went out the window --- and that's fine, given the social good that comes from voter-age participation greater than 60 percent.
How will the pollsters do this year? Dunno. The future is, by its very nature, unknowable.
But, surveys are tools that try to predict that future, with the understanding that every poll result is subject to error and uncertainty.
And I try not to misuse poll data. Polls are not there for reassurance or divining. They are there to inform campaigns on strategy, to show where resources need to be deployed.
After all that, I like what I'm seeing in the Harris-Walz polls. At the least, we can say these are not the numbers of a campaign bound to lose. Their campaign is not failing, not dying. Doesn't mean it will win -- the future is unknowable and the parameters of the portion of the electorate that will cast ballots that will be counted is too uncertain to make predictions with absolute certainty.
But the polls do indicate with a high level of confidence that a dollar invested today in Harris-Walz will not be wasted. All investments involve risk, including total loss. But, that's good enough for me.
Keep fighting, folks. Even if we ever get to the point where it seems it's "in the bag -- we are not there yet -- we still have a Republican coup to stop. We could "win" the Presidential election and still wind up losing unless we control Congress in January.
And a few specific notes on polling. First of all, I'm personally ignoring any polling for Georgia. I think MAGA has fucked things there enough that the actual vote won't matter. It's extremely unlikely we can win it by a large enough margin this cycle to overcome MAGA fuckery.
Second, national polling is mostly meaningless, of course, except as an indication of trends. But in that regard, as a rule of thumb, a margin of D+3.5 is what's needed to overcome the systemic advantage Republicans have in the Electoral College. Harris seems to either be there or close to it.
Reporting live from GA: Not just the ratfuckery, but the Atlanta area is an oasis (and still not great all around) amongst a vast red sea of pickup trucks with every flavor of Punisher logo decals. Even just 15 minutes outside the city proper and it is God-botherin' country that associate "liberal, Democrat, queer" with "Commie, Satan, pedophile," respectively.
mr fuflans is down visiting his mom in marietta (where he grew up). he's reporting he sees a lot more D signs - and his mom (lifelong dem, head of ERA GA when ERA was a thing) is feeling much less scared about showing her preferences than she used to be.
Just sent cash to Jon Tester in Montana and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida. I don't trust Texas to be fair counters of the vote, and I don't think Nebraskans are going to do the right thing. I really like Jon Tester, and it will be sad if they lose him to some pathetic carpetbagger. And Rick Scott is just pure garbage.
How is this legal? Can Kamala Harris buy some $10 gumball machine prizes and sell them to wealthy donors for $100K? Does the FEC have anything to say about this?
I suspect that as things firm up, almost everything will break Harris/Walz's way. I think Dems are going to win some races that they could hardly have imagined winning a few months ago--N. Carolina in particular since Robinson is radioactive-level toxic by now. The only worry I have is what could happen in the Middle East--if the violence completely spirals out of control and we get sucked into it, that (in addition to the horror it would unleash in the region) could end up benefiting Trump.
On one hand, Texas holding strong for Trump isn't surprising. I'll do my part and hope our Dems show up - but I'm far more worried about the other states (especially swing) going Trump.
Also, as a Texan, it would make my year if we finally got rid of Cruz. C'mon Texans - let's fucking go!
Yes. Texas is SO close to becoming a purple state, and it always ends up disappointing us. Maybe this time the stars will align and "Lyin' Ted" will finally get voted out. What a delight that would be. Same with Rick Scott in Florida. How can people not get sick of him?
Maryland is all about the Senate race. Alsobrooks has stubbed a toe on some old tax fillings and Hogan has jumped on it while pretending to be a reasonable guy who's going to be reasonable in all the ways he's never been reasonable before. He's posturing to be all Mr Smith-Goes-to-Washington ("Send a message to Washington" and "Donald who?") and when he gets in, the MAGA circus in the Senate is going to be all, "Wow, thanks, Larry. Yeah, we get that message. Totally. We're all gonna work together now in a bipartisan way to be reasonable, especially about this abortion thing."
I really do think internals must be even worse given the just insane levels of grift ongoing right now (silver dollars, NFT’s again, ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLAR temu drop ship watches)
I know Florida is only around +1 for Trump margins right now which should be deep diaper filling territory
I’ll believe Ted Cruz can be beaten when I see him rolling his suitcase toward the exits, Cancun style. Sucks about Jon Tester, he’s done a good job for Montana and is nobody’s idea of a flaming liberal.
If the Dems really get out and vote Trump will lose the popular vote by enough to make the Electors wonder if maybe they should follow the will of the people. Georgia will still be hand counting votes after the inauguration and neutralize themselves.
I dunno Evan I continue to believe that polls are missing the 100 million women who are primed to vote and they ain't thinking gop.
They miss a lot.
I'm glad my swing state of Merland is finally starting to go for Harris. Now if folks around here could just wake up and smell the rot coming off Hogan, that would be much appreciated.
"We see Harris up by six in one national poll, four in another. (Also there was Echelon — a Republican pollster — which has Harris up 52-45 nationally.)"
Heading off any naysaying about the value of national presidential preference polls --- yes, yes, the actual election is 51 separate contests in the states and DC.
But, the margin in nationwide surveys can be instructive, particularly as it approaches or surpasses the margin of error.
And, before you ask -- I just checked -- the national polling average for Clinton v. Trump for this week in 2016 -- Clinton was polling ahead of Trump by just +1.5 points. (On this day in 2020, the average showed Biden ahead, +7.3 points.)
So +4, +6 and +7 for Harris on Sept. 27, though not determinative, is good news -- and a far different state of affairs than in 2016.
I'm convinced by this point that polls are shit and always have been, and paying attention to them is a waste of time. Keep in mind that in the last few elections, Democrats have consistently outperformed their polling, across the country.
It's easy to dismiss. Polling is a statistical science, meaning that to use the tool properly one must be comfortable with uncertainty and probability.
We also need to recognize that in 2016, pollsters got a lot wrong. In 2020, voters confounded pollsters by showing up in far greater numbers than usual -- voter turnout in 2020 was the greatest since before the Election of 1976. All the usual assumptions, which are necessary when making statistical models, went out the window --- and that's fine, given the social good that comes from voter-age participation greater than 60 percent.
How will the pollsters do this year? Dunno. The future is, by its very nature, unknowable.
But, surveys are tools that try to predict that future, with the understanding that every poll result is subject to error and uncertainty.
And I try not to misuse poll data. Polls are not there for reassurance or divining. They are there to inform campaigns on strategy, to show where resources need to be deployed.
After all that, I like what I'm seeing in the Harris-Walz polls. At the least, we can say these are not the numbers of a campaign bound to lose. Their campaign is not failing, not dying. Doesn't mean it will win -- the future is unknowable and the parameters of the portion of the electorate that will cast ballots that will be counted is too uncertain to make predictions with absolute certainty.
But the polls do indicate with a high level of confidence that a dollar invested today in Harris-Walz will not be wasted. All investments involve risk, including total loss. But, that's good enough for me.
Go on o9ffense..gamble...if TFG goes down by 10 we can get to 52 Dem Senators!
Keep fighting, folks. Even if we ever get to the point where it seems it's "in the bag -- we are not there yet -- we still have a Republican coup to stop. We could "win" the Presidential election and still wind up losing unless we control Congress in January.
And a few specific notes on polling. First of all, I'm personally ignoring any polling for Georgia. I think MAGA has fucked things there enough that the actual vote won't matter. It's extremely unlikely we can win it by a large enough margin this cycle to overcome MAGA fuckery.
Second, national polling is mostly meaningless, of course, except as an indication of trends. But in that regard, as a rule of thumb, a margin of D+3.5 is what's needed to overcome the systemic advantage Republicans have in the Electoral College. Harris seems to either be there or close to it.
Run it up.
Reporting live from GA: Not just the ratfuckery, but the Atlanta area is an oasis (and still not great all around) amongst a vast red sea of pickup trucks with every flavor of Punisher logo decals. Even just 15 minutes outside the city proper and it is God-botherin' country that associate "liberal, Democrat, queer" with "Commie, Satan, pedophile," respectively.
mr fuflans is down visiting his mom in marietta (where he grew up). he's reporting he sees a lot more D signs - and his mom (lifelong dem, head of ERA GA when ERA was a thing) is feeling much less scared about showing her preferences than she used to be.
which is a nice change in her lifetime!
Just sent cash to Jon Tester in Montana and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida. I don't trust Texas to be fair counters of the vote, and I don't think Nebraskans are going to do the right thing. I really like Jon Tester, and it will be sad if they lose him to some pathetic carpetbagger. And Rick Scott is just pure garbage.
“I don't think Nebraskans are going to do the right thing.”
😞 … we resemble that remark.
Thank you.
Polls in PA are just whack. Two PA based pollsters from this week:
Franklin & Marshall, 9/4-15 - Harris (D) 49% Trump (R) 45%; Casey (D) 48% McCormick (R) 39%
Susquehanna Polling & Research, 9/16-22 - Harris (D) 46% Trump (R) 46%; Casey (D) 48% McCormick (R) 40%
At least it looks good (so far) that PA will keep Bob Casey in the Senate. C'mon, Montana! Stop voting for shitty salesmen!
How is this legal? Can Kamala Harris buy some $10 gumball machine prizes and sell them to wealthy donors for $100K? Does the FEC have anything to say about this?
I suspect that as things firm up, almost everything will break Harris/Walz's way. I think Dems are going to win some races that they could hardly have imagined winning a few months ago--N. Carolina in particular since Robinson is radioactive-level toxic by now. The only worry I have is what could happen in the Middle East--if the violence completely spirals out of control and we get sucked into it, that (in addition to the horror it would unleash in the region) could end up benefiting Trump.
40 States and a District.
On one hand, Texas holding strong for Trump isn't surprising. I'll do my part and hope our Dems show up - but I'm far more worried about the other states (especially swing) going Trump.
Also, as a Texan, it would make my year if we finally got rid of Cruz. C'mon Texans - let's fucking go!
I'm with you. It's not like I don't have a target-rich environment to replace him, either.
Fuck Ted Cruz.
Yes. Texas is SO close to becoming a purple state, and it always ends up disappointing us. Maybe this time the stars will align and "Lyin' Ted" will finally get voted out. What a delight that would be. Same with Rick Scott in Florida. How can people not get sick of him?
This Floridian was sick of Voldemort before he was elected governor.
Dollar Store One-Who-Must -Not-Be-Named.
Fuck the trumpsterfire!
Maryland is all about the Senate race. Alsobrooks has stubbed a toe on some old tax fillings and Hogan has jumped on it while pretending to be a reasonable guy who's going to be reasonable in all the ways he's never been reasonable before. He's posturing to be all Mr Smith-Goes-to-Washington ("Send a message to Washington" and "Donald who?") and when he gets in, the MAGA circus in the Senate is going to be all, "Wow, thanks, Larry. Yeah, we get that message. Totally. We're all gonna work together now in a bipartisan way to be reasonable, especially about this abortion thing."
Yes, but none of that matters because of Kamala's margin in Maryland.
Look at the recent polling- even Fabrizio, an actual employee of the the Trump campaign, cannot call it more than a tie.
https://substack.com/profile/671070-paulomatic/note/c-70524794?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=edsu
I really do think internals must be even worse given the just insane levels of grift ongoing right now (silver dollars, NFT’s again, ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLAR temu drop ship watches)
I know Florida is only around +1 for Trump margins right now which should be deep diaper filling territory