Put On Your Wall-Ketchup Helmets, Mar-a-Lago, The Baby's Gonna Hate These Polls

Come get your Friday morning poll porns!

Sep 27, 2024

Polls, they are a snapshot in time! Some of them are good and done well. Others are designed to make Donald Trump’s dingle tingle, because he gets upset when they don’t make his dingle tingle.

That being said!

Smart polling analyst guy Adam Carlson tweeted his spreadsheet of the polls that came out yesterday, and things are looking pretty decent! All normal disclaimers apply, especially the one about how we cannot get complacent for one damn second, but …

“Pretty strong polling day for Harris,” he tweeted.

We’ll say!

We see Harris up by six in one national poll, four in another. (Also there was Echelon — a Republican pollster — which has Harris up 52-45 nationally.)

We see Fox News with Trump up by three in Arizona, but Bloomberg/Morning Consult has Harris up by that much.

We see Fox News with Harris up by three in Georgia, whereas Bloomberg/Morning Consult has that one as a tie. Those are the two sun belt states where the narrative has been saying Trump has more momentum this time around. Wait, there’s also Nevada, where Bloomberg/Morning Consult has her up by seven.

Up by three or five in Michigan, depending on which poll you look at. A tie in North Carolina, or maybe she’s up by two. Up by two or five in Pennsylvania. One or three in Wisconsin.

And Trump is only up by five in Texas, says Emerson College.

Yeah, Mar-a-Lago employees and dinner guests, put on your helmets, because Daddy’s gonna be throwin’ shit with his tiny baby hands.

Read Carlson’s whole thread — his spreadsheet on where the Senate is, that’s an informative one. Right this moment, looking at the polling averages, it’s beating Ted Cruz in Texas — not holding on to Jon Tester’s seat in Montana — that gets Democrats to 50. In fact, the polls are closer in Cruz’s race than they are in Tester’s race against that scumbag Tim Sheehy, who looks increasingly likely to win.

Carlson notes that news came out yesterday that Democrats are sending the big bucks in to Texas and also Florida, where undead Batboy Rick Scott is looking increasingly precarious in his race against Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Most pundits and numbers-counters have pretty much agreed that the Senate map is extremely scary for Democrats in general right now, but Aaron Blake notes that the three closest Senate races in general right now are Texas, Florida and Nebraska, which Wonkette discussed this week.

Is it possible that actually Democrats are playing offense right now, even in the Senate? Or is it a Hail Mary? Are Democrats playing defense by playing offense? And is that even how football works, Tim Walz?