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Crip Dyke's avatar

For those wondering, that 4/300 mass shooters are trans or non-binary stat?

First, it counts participants in mass shootings (4 or more people shot, even if everyone survives) as "mass shooters", but the 300 mass shooting incidents apparently counts only "mass shooting murders" (4 or more people shot and at least 4 of those shot die of their gunshot wounds). MOREOVER, some of those 300 mass shooting incidents had more than one shooter, so dividing people by incidents is inappropriate to begin with.

But even if we accept that individuals/incidents is the correct statistic, the relevant number of mass shootings (not mass murders) appears to be over 2500. 4/2500 = 0.16% meaning that trans & non-binary mass shooters would be underrepresented by 67% to 92%.

But wait. It gets worse. The person who sent out the 4/300 stat? They were counting the Colorado Springs shooter (of a queer club that was hosting a drag event at the time) as non-binary because in his initial court appearance his lawyers stated that he was and asked for gender neutral pronouns to be used. However within days the lawyers withdrew that request and asked for masculine pronouns (consistent with a cis identity) to be used. Massive amounts of information came out that indicated he had long hated QT people and that the brief claim of non-binary identity was meant as trolling and/or a false flag.

That means that the actual % of shooting incidents with a trans or non-binary shooter among those committing the crime was 3, not 4. With a trans/non-binary population of 0.5% to 2% and using 2500 mass shootings (again, not mass killings or we would have to reduce the number of trans or non-binary shooters again), we get a ratio of 3/2500 which equals a 0.12% proportion, which then shows trans & non-binary people being underrepresented among mass shooters by at least 75% and possibly as much as 94%.

The statistic most favourable to the trans haters would be if the 300 mass murder statistic is accurate (I don't trust the person who gave it out, but let's assume for the moment that it is). As it happens, 2 of the 3 trans or non-binary mass shooters also ended up mass murderers. But 2/300 yields 0.666%.

Given the 0.5% to 2.0% prevalence of trans & non-binary people in the population, this would mean that among mass shooting murderers, trans and non-binary persons are at most 33% overrepresented but possibly underrepresented by as much as 67%.

More over, given a data set with such a small number of trans people, any conclusions are going to be unreliable. And on top of that, one of the two mass murderers was the junior partner in a 2 person team. I am not saying this absolves them of legal (or moral) guilt, but it seems relevant that they appeared to be taking direction from a cis person and that the cis person did more of the shooting and killing. On their own, they may not have qualified as a mass murderer at all. Instead they appear to have qualified as a result of the kills inflicted by the person that they aided and abetted. (Which, again, is horrible, illegal, and immoral, but is nonetheless different from pulling the trigger oneself.)

If one has to actually kill at least 4 people to be on the mass murderer list, we would be down to 1 trans or non-binary killer out of 300 incidents. In this case, trans & non-binary people would be at worst 33% underrepresented and at best 83% underrepresented.

Finally, the person advancing the statistic did not choose to start counting mass murders until they year of the first trans participant in a mass murder. So the time frame was artificially selected on purpose to maximize the apparent % of trans and non-binary shooters among all mass murderers.

In short, the 4/300 number is a lie and all reasonable evidence shows that while we don't have enough data for firm conclusions, the most reasonable speculation is that trans people are much less likely to be mass shooters or mass murderers than cis people, and that this comparison is even more favourable for trans people when it is limited to cis men -- a gender category that, for some reason, the person asserting that the genders of trans person cause them to become murderers was unwilling to examine.

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ᴄᴏɢꜱᴡᴇʟʟ's avatar

Pardon the off topic:

Democracy Docket

@DemocracyDocket

BREAKING: Federal judge strikes down Georgia's congressional and legislative maps, ruling they violate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of Black voters. New, fair districts must be drawn before the 2024 elections.

democracydocket.com

🚨 Democracy Docket: Voting Rights Victory in Georgia: https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/georgia-congressional-redistricting-challenge/

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