DO WHAT THE BUTTONS SAY!
And a good morning to you! Yes, we are aware that Debbie Lesko beat Hiral Tipernini by 5 points in Arizona's special election to fill out Trent Franks's seat. Congratulations and all, we guess.
Congratulations to Republican Debbie Lesko on her big win in the Special Election for Arizona House seat. Debbie will do a Great Job! Press is so silent.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 25, 2018
But holy shit, look at that swing! In 2016, Democrats didn't even bother to field a challenge to Trent Franks, who beat the Green candidate by 37 points. After Franks got caught trying to convince staffers to join his homebrew surrogacy club, he's gone home to try and impregnate his wife the old-fashioned way. Which left an open seat in a district that Trump won by 21 points. Republicans pick a well-known state senator, dump a million dollars into the race, her opponent is an unknown woman of color, AND THEY ONLY WIN BY FIVE POINTS?
They are so fucked!
Let's look at some pictures. Here's the relative spending on candidates.
Graphic via NYTimes
Hey, maybe if we dump a few dollars into the November rematch, we can kick Lesko to the curb! Especially if her possible campaign finance violations become a problem.
Want a visual representation of how far each district swung left?
Here’s a chart of the shift from the 2016 Presidential election in regards to party votes. All of these blue arrows means Dems are showing up. Sort of looks like a wave. ? #DemWave #AZ08 #VoteHiral pic.twitter.com/GwPSOcvsQ4
— Scott Dworkin (@funder) April 25, 2018
You know who's got a spring in her step this morning? Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic candidate to replace spineless weasel Jeff Flake.
Graphic via ABC .
Want to take back the Senate? This is how we do it! As for the House, yeah, it's gerrymandered to shit. (And we still can't get over that Wyoming gets a senator for every escalator.) But we can still do this!
And that swing has been happening across the country.
Image via FiveThirtyEight
Last night, Long Island Democrat Steve Stern flipped a seat in the New York state Assembly that Republicans have held for 40 years! THIS IS HAPPENING.
And you know how we've been yammering at you for months about vote wasting, cracking and packing, and the efficiency gap? Yes, we know you never read those articles. And we're not mad about it, whatever, IT'S FINE. The point is, GOP legislatures have drawn the maps to spread Republicans over the maximum number of districts with a 5-8% margin, while forcing supermajorities of Democrats into a few, small districts. And in a wave year, that 5-8% margin just won't cut it. Which is why Paul Ryan noped out of another run -- even if he beat Randy Bryce, he'd still face the very real possibility of having to turn his gavel over to Nancy Pelosi!
Don't believe us? ASK A PROFESSIONAL NERD!
A list of all the R-held House seats more competitive than the average swing in Federal special elections since 2016 (17% from the seat's partisan lean):
SC-04
MI-02
SC-02
CA-50
OH-02
SD-AL
CA-01
MS-03
SC-07
MT-AL
CA-04
WI-07
NC-07
OH-15
SC-05
— G. Elliott Morris??♂️ (@gelliottmorris) April 25, 2018
...
VA-06
TX-25
NJ-04
OH-12
CA-08
MI-01
GA-12
CO-05
WI-08
CA-22
FL-17
NC-05
KY-06
GA-01
TX-31
IN-05
SC-01
OK-05
FL-03
WI-06
AZ-06
NY-21
NC-06
VA-01
AK-AL
TX-27
NC-08
TX-22
WA-05
MI-07
CA-42
MO-02
UT-04
NV-02
PA-11
TX-10
AR-02
OH-14
GA-07
NC-09
FL-16
NY-23
OH-10
MI-03
TX-24
...
— G. Elliott Morris??♂️ (@gelliottmorris) April 25, 2018
...
TX-03
VA-05
IL-12
KS-02
CO-03
NY-01
NC-02
GA-06
NY-11
NY-02
MI-06
WA-03
NY-22
OH-16
NC-13
VA-07
OH-01
FL-25
IL-14
MI-08
FL-18
TX-32
TX-02
VA-02
IL-13
NJ-03
PA-16
WI-01
ME-02
TX-06
FL-06
TX-21
TX-07
CA-48
NY-19
NM-02
IA-03
KS-03
CA-45
NJ-07
NE-02
PA-08
FL-15
...
— G. Elliott Morris??♂️ (@gelliottmorris) April 25, 2018
...
IL-06
PA-15
IA-01
MN-02
NY-24
TX-23
CA-10
MI-11
NJ-02
CA-25
NJ-11
MN-03
VA-10
CO-06
PA-07
PA-06
WA-08
AZ-02
CA-21
FL-26
CA-39
CA-49
and
FL-27
⬇⬇⬇ https: //t.co/3BL5MlOz2J pic.twitter.com/DINEyUD6za
— G. Elliott Morris??♂️ (@gelliottmorris) April 25, 2018
So vote! Donate! Get your ass out there and knock on doors! November is coming, and WE CAN DO THIS!
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Look, I'm all for your enthusiasm and positive sentiment, but fuck the Yankees. Geeeesh.
They don't need to win the national vote by 11, it's bad math. If they win by 11, 50 R seats are going down.