This Is The Only Internet Blog Article You Need To Read About Tomorrow's Midterms
Hello, America, are you ready for Democracy Time?
Barack Obama is ready, and he brought donuts!
A box of doughnuts in hand, former President Barack Obama is greeted by a cheering staff at a Fairfax campaign offi… https://t.co/jv98z1lEM2— ABC News Politics (@ABC News Politics) 1541438105.0
OK! Now that we have had Obama's donuts, we are ready to talk about tomorrow, what's gonna happen, what we think is gonna happen, and how Wonkette is obviously going to be here the whole time, #LivebloggingTheDrunk. Wait, that's not it. We will be #DrunkingTheVote. OK, whatever it is, we are going to be here the whole time. Let's talk some shit about tomorrow!
Why We're Cautiously Optimistic: A lot of the conventional analysis shows Democrats retaking the House by a reasonable margin and Republicans keeping the Senate, just barely. For instance, here is a prediction, with a link you can click and read if you'd like:
The picks are in - D +34 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +10(!) in governorships https://t.co/H5WqS0CIue— Kyle Kondik (@Kyle Kondik) 1541437680.0
We, of course, are eternal optimists, so we're hoping for a blowout in the House and just enough upsets in the Senate to give Democrats that one-seat majority we need.
People still hate Donald Trump -- CNN's latest poll has him with a 39% approval rating, because fuck off, Rasmussen -- and that is the lowest approval rating for any president in modern history heading into midterms. We think polling outfits have a hard time factoring in how pissed people are. CNN's latest poll also shows Democrats with a 13-point advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot (55-42), and Democrats continue to have massive advantages with women and independent voters.
So yes, we're holding out hope that we're going to hold at least most of the Senate seats we need to hold to stay in this fight. Late polls from NBC/Marist show Claire McCaskill up three points in Missouri and Bill Nelson up four points in Florida, and Quinnipiac has Nelson up seven points. (Bill Nelson obviously will be buying Andrew Gillum whatever the fuck he wants for Christmas, because yeah he'd better do that.) Cook Political Report still has all the crucial Senate races (including Tennessee and Texas) listed as toss-ups or "Lean Democrat," except for Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, who is listed as a "Lean Republican." So, Dems are still in the game and also too, we are not counting Heidi Heitkamp out just yet.
And mark it down now, and maybe we'll eat our hat and be wrong, but we think the Dems are taking either Texas or Tennessee. It's just a gut feeling. We could be full of shit, who knows.
Oh yeah, and we also think Democrats are going to MOP THE FLOOR in gubernatorial races, starting with (fingers crossed!) Stacey Abrams in Georgia. But there are so many more governor's races that look really, really, really good!
Other random factoids that make us feel good, in a cautious way:
- Have you heard about the young vote? You should hear about the Youngs, because they are GOOD.
- Did you know retired people for the first time ever gave more money to DEMOCRAT PARTY SOCIALISM CARAVAN MEXICAN candidates than they gave to Republicans? Maybe the Olds are all right too!
- Early voting numbers in general, holy shit!
- The insane gender gap in early voting numbers, because women are MAD, so yay! And also holy shit!
Why None Of Our Optimism Matters If Fuckers Don't VOTE, DAMMIT: Because none of this matters if fuckers don't VOTE, DAMMIT. That is why. What is your voting plan? What is your Nana's porn star boyfriend's voting plan? You need to find that out, from the porn star your Nana is dating.
What Time You Need To Come To Wonkette For Liveblogging And Like Such As: Well, we just don't know! We'll probably start the liveblog at "time" and end it at "different time," just like we always do! But if you're curious about what races to look for to see how the night's going to go, and when those polls close, Jake Tapper has a partial list for you:
What House races to watch tomorrow night to see if there's a blue wave or red wall? GOPers I know say: 6 pm ET KY:… https://t.co/ljyQQJnkLY— Jake Tapper (@Jake Tapper) 1541436362.0
SIX PM EASTERN? OK fine, so shit's gonna start early, which means we will start up our liveblog early. Amy McGrath in Kentucky is a fucking badass and we'd really like to see her in the Congress. (That race is tied, according to the New York Times "Let's Liveblog The Polls Like Some Kinda Idiot" thingie.) So that's a good time to start looking for A Thing. (That's also when we should start learning stuff about Senator Joe Donnelly's race for re-election in Indiana, which could be another early sign of how shit's going.)
Barbara Comstock in Virginia is dead on arrival, we are pretty sure, but if the margin of her loss is so huge they call it quick, that might be a good indicator that it's going to be fine evening for the Democrats. And if Abigail Spanberger beats Dave Brat in that Virginia district, first of all, that will be OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG, but that'll be a sign the Democrats are going to commit a MURDERRRRRRRRRR tomorrow night. (The good kind! With votes!)
We would also note that it's gonna be real innaresting to see what happens in Florida tomorrow night, just in general. And in Georgia! Of course, we're all watching Stacey Abrams, but remember also to watch to see if Lucy McBath can beat that sniveling dickface Karen Handel in GA-06. Speaking of ...
If you are anal retentive and need to know all the things about all the things, FiveThirtyEight has an exhaustive schedule of when polls close tomorrow. We just bookmarked it! Also too, if you want to dig even deeper, here is a PDF of Cook's ratings for ALL HOUSE RACES.
What Other Stuff To Look For: ALL OF IT, KATIE! What if Steve King has Nazi-ed one times too many and he loses in Iowa? What if Dana Rohrabacher loses to Harley Rouda in California, leaving the Kremlin without representation in the House of Representatives? What the fuck is going to happen in California, in general? And what time will we be awake until? We will be looking to answer all of these questions and many more!
How We Can Help Wonkette In Its Time Of Need: Give us dollars for booze and ordering food the whole time and just because you want us to get really big Christmas bonuses this year.
Is That All? Yeah, we think so. Let's do this! America fuck yeah! Wonk The Vote!
OK goodbye now.
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