Hannity Poll Guy Has Most Perfect Polls, Will Scream VOTER FRAUD! Just In Case He's Wrong
The Trafalgar Group has consistently served as a rare source of good polling news for Donald Trump. Even when Rasmussen shows Joe Biden curb stomping Trump, Trafalgar is there for him with polls that seem to just really accurately reflect the voting preferences of the most racist members of a 1950s Alabama subdivision.
Trafalgar's chief pollster is Robert Cahaly, who the Wall Street Journal credits with correctly predicting the 2016 election's gruesome outcome. That doesn't make him Nostradamus. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28.6 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in 2016, which is a lot unless you're someone who'd buy a used car that had a 28.6 percent chance of exploding whenever you started the ignition.
Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report also saw warning signs for Hillary Clinton at the congressional district level in 2016. He sees the opposite trend now — Trump is underperforming his 2016 margins in district-level polling. That's a problem when he carried Pennsylvania, for instance, by less than a percentage point. If he's stumbling in Trump country, where is he going to make up the difference? The coveted Lil Wayne endorsement holds lil weight in Scranton.
Cahaly appeared on an extra-special weekend edition of Sean Hannity's show, his bowtie securely fastened and his beard trimmed to Kentucky colonel standards. He stood by his prediction that Trump will win Pennsylvania. He's less confident, however, that the president can overcome Sleepy Joe's massive voter fraud operation.
there are no credible accusations of mass voter fraud. trafalgar's chief pollster just told hannity that trump wil… https://t.co/jmAv28jppV— John Whitehouse (@John Whitehouse)1604283536.0
CAHALY: The way I look at Pennsylvania is unfortunately, I think [Trump's] four or five to overtake the voter fraud that'll happen there.
Apparently, Biden's combination Vote Fraud Manipulator/Weather Dominator maxes out at five points.
CAHALY: It's very systematic in Pennsylvania.
CAHALY: I think it's achievable to get to four or five, but I think that's the margin he needs to have in Pennsylvania to survive ...
It's unclear if Cahaly believes Trump actually had a five-point winning margin in 2016, which Democratic voter fraud reduced to 0.72 percent. If so, that's pretty half-assed fraud. The Democratic machine couldn't bother to throw out an extra 44,292 votes? No wonder the Obama administration bungled the swine flu pandemic no one remembers.
There's no way Trump is going to carry Pennsylvania by five points. He's barely averaging a five-point lead in South Carolina. But sure, dude, whatever.
HANNITY: You're issuing a prediction that ... saying he will win but they'll steal it? Is that what you'll predicting.
Even Hannity struggled not to laugh.
CAHALY: I'm saying he better win by four or five percent to make sure he actually gets the victory. That's the margin he needs to avoid what they will systematically do.
Who the fuck is “they"? I swear this shit wasn't on primetime television when I was growing up. Goofballs in tinfoil hats — who still smartly avoided bow ties — might rant to a call-in radio talk show while we all laughed, but they didn't spread baseless conspiracy theories to millions of radicalized old white people, which includes the president of the United States.
Hannity tried to reassure Cahaly that friendly neighborhood poll watchers would keep everything legit.
HANNITY: There are poll watchers everywhere. They are lawyers on the ground. Both sides have them.
Yes, Trump's team will try to toss out ballots and Biden's team will remind courts that the Constitution exists.
Hannity asked Cahaly how he thought Trump was doing in other swing states, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. (The last one is not a swing state.)
CAHALY: We have him up in Michigan. We had him a little bit down in Wisconsin.
Biden is up by an average of 8.2 points in Wisconsin. Cahaly promised that Trafalgar would have another BS Wisconsin poll out before the election.
CAHALY: In Minnesota, we have him a little bit down but we still have Kanye getting 3.3 percent of the vote. When you run it without Kanye, [Trump's] winning.
OK, Kanye West isn't winning 3.3 percent of any vote at any time anywhere. However, if this were true, then Jared Kushner's reported abuse of West's fragile mental health would've backfired and cost Trump Minnesota's 10 electoral votes. That's about the level of competence we've come to expect from Kushner's evil.
Cahaly has whined that he's not accepted as a legitimate pollster, but now he's willing to make baseless accusations of systemic voter fraud to justify his crap polls. That's more than just scuzzy. It further destabilizes our democracy.
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Stephen Robinson is a writer and social kibbitzer based in Portland, Oregon. He writes reviews for the A.V. Club and make believe for Cafe Nordo, an immersive theatre space in Seattle. He's also on the board of the Portland Playhouse theatre. His son describes him as a “play typer guy."