Happy Friday Nicetimes, Wonkers! This week's post is brought to you by the state of Iowa, which Cook Political Report just moved from "Likely" to "Lean" Republican based on the last round of polling. Golly!

We have also been following the polls out of Iowa. But it's one thing to have Civiqs or PPP tell you that the Hawkeye state is tightening. It's quite another to have Ann Selzer, the gold standard Iowa pollster with an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight, tell you the same numbers. Which is exactly why Cook Political finally changed the state's rating. Because if Ann Selzer says it, you can take it to the bank.

So what's the Oracle of Cornland saying?

She says Trump is just one point ahead of Biden, in a poll with a 3.8 percent margin of error, and that he's fast losing ground with non-college white women, who have long constituted his firewall.


"According to the survey, Biden leads among this group by 18 points," notes Cook Political's Amy Walters in an article about leftward movement in the site's predictions for Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio. "In 2016, exit polls showed Trump winning with these women by two points (49-47 percent). Among non-college men, Trump still held a wide lead of 36 points."

Welcome to the resistance, ladies! Walters also notes that Trump only got 51 percent of the Iowa vote in 2016. His nine-point margin was thanks to more than seven percent of the electorate who cast their votes for third party candidates. In 2020 he won't be able to count on Gary Johnson and Jill Stein to muddy the waters.

Even better, Selzer shows Republican Sen. Joni Ernst losing by three points to Theresa Greenfield, her Democratic challenger! And, giving credit where it's due, is pretty much exactly what Daily Kos's Civiqs and Democratic pollster PPP reported. Because unlike the GOP, we don't just throw money at some chucklehead to tell us what we want to hear.

"This is definitely a competitive race," Selzer told the Des Moines Register, which commissioned the poll. "Symbolically, that's certainly meaningful, even if Theresa Greenfield's lead is not commanding."

Wanna donate to the former "farm kid" dedicated to saving Social Security and flipping the Senate? Do it here! Because if anyone can retire Senator Bread Bags, it's a woman who can credibly cut an ad pointing out that Joni Ernst "didn't castrate anyone" in Washington, and has served as a rubber stamp for that filthy varmint Donald Trump.

Really www.youtube.com

And Joni Ernst's two X chromosomes aren't helping her with women at all. Greenfield holds a 20 point lead with women generally and a 31 point lead among non-college-educated women.

"More women typically vote in elections than men," Selzer told the Register. "And so if there is this kind of gap, this kind of lead with the majority of voters, it's very difficult to overcome that. Except that recently the division is strong on both sides."

Greenfield also holds a four-point lead with independent voters, who make up more than a third of Iowa's electorate. So Mitch McConnell better get out his checkbook if he plans to hold that Senate seat. And even then ... it might not help.

YOU LOVE TO SEE IT.

[Cook Political / Selzer Poll / Des Moines Register]

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Liz Dye

Liz Dye lives in Baltimore with her wonderful husband and a houseful of teenagers. When she isn't being mad about a thing on the internet, she's hiding in plain sight in the carpool line. She's the one wearing yoga pants glaring at her phone.

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