Wisconsin Voters Look Maybe Ready To Ditch Senate’s Dumbest Republican

Mandela Barnes for the win?

Ron Johnson is in trouble. The Senate’s dumbest Republican (actually that title is in question, we need recounts) is trailing his Democratic challenger, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. A Marquette University poll has Barnes up a whopping seven points, a five-point increase from June, and Fox News shows Barnes up four points.

Independent voters were 30 percent of the 2020 electorate, and Joe Biden carried that demo by 12 points, which is part of how he won, and he did win no matter how much Donald Trump whines. This pattern is playing out for Barnes, who is running away with independents 52 to 38 percent in the Marquette poll. He has seven percent support from Republicans, while just four percent of Democrats back Johnson. Not sure why a self-identified Democrat would vote for Ron Johnson of all people. Maybe they’re related to Kyrsten Sinema.

PREVIOUSLY:

 Is Mandela Barnes Just Too Black, Too Woke, Too Dreamy To Beat Senate’s Dumbest Republican? 

 Can Wisconsin Upgrade From Dumbest Republican In Senate To Dreamiest Democrat? 

Fox News has some “good” news for Johnson, though: More of his voters are “enthusiastically” voting for him, while 27 percent voters are backing Barnes because they can’t stand Johnson, who sucks.

Barnes is helped by strong backing among moderates (+37), suburban women (+30), voters ages 65 and over (+23), and voters with a college degree (+16). [...]

"Geographically, Barnes has cut into Johnson's support in the exurban and rural parts of the state," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who jointly conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Johnson has to regain these voters and cut his losses with suburban women if he's to retain his seat.”

Good luck winning over suburban women when you’re a Capitol-riot-minimizing jackass who possibly enabled a coup. Shouting, “BLM! Kenosha! BLACK MAN!” just isn’t enough this time. Biden lost voters aged 65 and over by six points, and Barnes is winning them according to the Fox News poll by 23 points . Earlier this month, Johnson suggested turning Social Security and Medicare into “discretionary” spending programs instead of automatic entitlements. Maybe there’s a connection.

Admittedly, we thought we were rid of Johnson in 2016 when Democrat Russ Feingold consistently led polls, along with Hillary Clinton. (Stop giving her grief about “not campaigning” hard enough in a state where she had an average polling lead of 6.5 points!) Johnson wound up winning by three points, but he could've benefitted from Trump’s unexpected strength in rural counties. There was also a significant decrease in turnout in Democratic strongholds such as Milwaukee. Thanks to the Samuel Alito Supreme Court’s reign of terror, Democrats are (hopefully) especially motivated to vote this year. Abortion is a major issue for both Democrats and independents.

In the Fox poll, Johnson is winning voters who consider inflation their primary issue, but that’s just 28 percent of voters. A combined 32 percent of voters consider either abortion or election integrity their most important issues. They overwhelmingly support Barnes.

However, if Johnson is hoping for a 2016 reprise, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel points out that he’s "considerably more unpopular now than he was six years ago. His ‘negative rating’ — the share of voters who view him unfavorably — is the highest it has ever been (47 percent) since Marquette began polling on Johnson almost a decade ago.”

Not only does a much larger bloc of voters “dislike” Johnson, a much smaller bloc of voters is undecided about him. This time around, there are fewer “don’t knows” out there for Johnson to convert into “positives.”

Johnson’s own popularity was rebounding at this point six years ago, but there’s been zero improvement in his numbers this year. There are also fewer voters with no opinion of Johnson, and most of those who know him think he’s trash.

While we won't be shocked if Johnson unleashes a torrent of racist scaremongering about Barnes, the midterms are just under three months away. Clinton was battered with deranged right-wing smears for almost 30 years prior to 2016. Also, the mood of the electorate is very different. If you support Americans having control of their bodies, along with democracy in general, Johnson just isn’t your candidate.

[ Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel ]

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