Axios Reports GOP 'Angst' Over Midterms. We Won't Be Happy Until Mike Johnson Goes Goth
Ja, das ist Schadenfreude.
Axios reported Thursday that Republicans are getting all angsty about the potential for low MAGA voter turnout in this fall’s midterm elections, because in the 20 or so state legislative districts that have held special elections so far in 2026, “Democrats are outpacing their 2024 performance by double digits,” which is a nice statistic to see, and we sure hope that continues into November. Axios said the performance of Dems in special elections is a “clear sign of a yawning enthusiasm gap,” although if anyone’s yawning, that’s already a clear sign of lagging enthusiasm.
How well that will translate to the general election remains to be seen, given the GOP’s dedication to winning elections through tinkering with voter rolls and/or machines wherever possible, as Donald Trump keeps urging them to do.
See also Kristi Noem’s insistence that DHS goons should probably help Trump run our elections, because to hell with the Constitution and state control over voting! Last Friday in Arizona, Noem said, “When it gets to election day, we’ve been proactive to make sure we have the right people voting, electing the right leaders to lead this country.”
Oh, heavens, settle down and quell your fears! Kristi Noem has been a Republican long enough to know how plausible deniability works, so what she “really meant” by “the right people voting” was of course only US citizens, you know. Electing the right people. Again, that only means citizens, silly.
Only a paranoid could possibly misinterpret that, so please show us your papers, citizen, to prove you’re not paranoid. No sudden movements, please. You don’t want to be one of the wrong people, do you?
But back to Axios and its tale of “GOP angst over voter turnout,” because the numbers may be useful if we actually make it to Election Day: Compared to Kamala Harris’s performance in the 2024 general election, Democrats have outperformed Harris “by an average of 10.5 percentage points in the 20 state legislative districts that've held special elections this year.”
What’s more,
Democratic candidates outperformed Harris by even more — an average of 13.9 points — in the 67 state House and Senate races last year, according to The Downballot, a site that tracks state-level and congressional campaigns.
Axios notes that seems consistent with internal Republican polling, too.
Some of the declining enthusiasm for Republican candidates is probably due to the fact that Trump isn’t on the ballot. At the end of January, you’ll recall, the Republican candidate he’d endorsed in a Texas state Senate special election got thumped by 14 points by Democrat Taylor Rehmet, in a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024. Trump was happy to explain that away as having nothing to do with him, telling reporters, “I’m not involved in that. That’s a local Texas race.”
This is where we point out that this fall, Trump will not be on the ballot anywhere. It’s all local races.
Beyond not having their guy headlining any of the elections, Axios points out that at least some 2024 Trump supporters may be less than thrilled by the economy, and even by his marquee deportation crusade, however jimmy-rustled his truest believers may be about watching liberals and migrants getting brutalized and killed.
Since that January 31 election, there have been other signs and portents. On February 7, a special election for the Louisiana House went to Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez, who smooshed Republican Brad Daigle right into the marshy ground outside Baton Rouge in a 24-point landslide, both a mixed metaphor and a hell of a flip from Trump’s 13-point win in 2024.
Then on February 10, in a special election for a super-red Oklahoma state house district, the Republican candidate won by a solid 28 points over the Democrat. How is such a rout news? In 2024, Trump won in the district by 58 points! A 30-point decline in the winning margin just might be reason for concern, if not outright pants-crapping.
And just wait, there’s more!
Since the start of the year, Republicans have suffered double-digit drop-offs from Trump's 2024 performance in state legislative elections in Northern and Central Virginia, New York City, east-central Minnesota, and southeastern Connecticut.
"While it is tempting for many in our party to wish away these results," a GOP operative told Axios, "the pattern is clear that there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it's built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base."
None of that is locked in place, of course, and there’s no telling what mayhem may be yet to come between now and November. By then, Trump may be deporting anyone who drives an EV to further protect the fossil fuels industry.
Axios closes with opinions from Republican consultants, presumably to keep anyone from feeling any hope. Those lizards are, of course, confident that money will be what matters, in spite of how they’ve been overspending opponents and still losing:
Trump's cash-flush political operation didn't aggressively work to turn out the president's supporters in any of the recent elections — something it'll do in U.S. House and Senate elections this November.
And of course, Trump himself will bring his own sparkle to GOP candidates in key races, sure to bring the MAGA faithful flocking to the polls no matter how mushy his brain has become by then. He will have to become far more incoherent than he already is to change any of their minds.
But by then, voters may be tired of all the flag-draped coffins being flown back from our wars against Canada, France, Greenland, Mexico, and New Mexico too, so that could turn out to be a key issue in the midterms as well.
And don’t forget The Groceries. Plenty of potential for angst there, and maybe even re-listening to My Chemical Romance cassettes.
November, so soon and yet still so far away.
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If I hear one gotdamn word about "moving past this," "reconciliation," or "healing," I'ma need bail money...
HOLY CRAP THAT PICTURE
...need...brain...bleach...send...help...