It was the most obvious thing in the world, the plan has been in everybody’s face, but yesterday, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen made some earth-shaking news when she just came right out and said it during a speech to the European Parliament: that she wanted to invite Canada to become the first ever “associate member” of the European Union.
What would that entail? Could be lots of things! How would it work? Don’t know, doing this for the first time! But it wasn’t long before it was suggested that Australia and New Zealand might could also do something similar at some point, potentially.
It all goes back to that speech at Davos in January, where Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney encouraged the “middle powers” of the world to get together or get eaten. By whom? Shhhh, don’t say his name out loud. (He’s too dumb to know you’re talking about him if you don’t.) Fast forward to now and Carney is responding to Donald Trump’s feeble attempts to rename lakes, as part of his pathetic trade war, by lightly suggesting it ain’t gonna be long before that lake is gonna be called “Lake You’re About To Have A Land Border With Europe Stuck Right Up Your Ass, Eh?”
Donald Trump is furious, and also, as usual, exposing how irredeemably fucking stupid he is, like he was the last one to see this coming:
“If I think it’s at all a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things,” Trump whined, like a boy who only knows how to make one threat. As if the world hasn’t responded to his stupidity and incessant bullying by simply deciding to go around him. It’s a good move, considering how much weaker the US already is after two years of Trump. Imagine what a nothing on the world stage we’ll be by the time he’s done. (Especially if he leaves Pete Hegseth in charge of the military!)
Trump did allow that if he thinks they’re pursuing this with “good intention,” then maybe he won’t punish them. OK, Grandpa. Get back on top of your bedpan.
Other things Trump is inconsolably shitting his pants about: Kevin Warsh raising interest rates — hahahahahahahaha, what did Trump fire the last guy for? — and the Kennedy Center’s continued refusal to lie down and take it from him.
Make no mistake, what Von Der Leyen announced yesterday was historic, potentially one of those moments that signals a great shift in the world’s balance of power. There in front of the European Parliament, she said that Canada and Europe “see the world through the same eyes,” and therefore:
“We want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible, and dear Mark, I said we must urgently reimagine our partnerships. So, I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to be the first associate member of the European Union.”
We would like for you to watch the reaction of the room after she said that. (Start around three minutes in if you don’t want to watch the whole thing.)
Yes, it was a historic moment. It came after an announcement Monday from European Parliament President Roberta Metsola that they would be supporting the establishment of an “antenna office” of the EP in Ottawa. “Europe and Canada: old friends, still writing the next page together,” she tweeted. For an idea of what big news all of this is after Von Der Leyen’s announcement, check Metsola’s Twitter page today.
What could something like this entail? Again, that’s far from decided, but El País notes that Ottawa and Brussels have already been hard at work putting together “various agreements on energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, education, research, and defense.” One thing that’s been mentioned is visa-free travel between Canada and the EU. Another is letting Canada join the EU’s Erasmus+ exchange program, which is enormous and part of the university life of many many many European kids, getting to take a year to go study at another university in Europe.
Again, is this a done deal? Far from it. There’s a long way to go to make something like this actually happen, and Carney has been diplomatically making non-denial denials about the idea. There are questions about what this means for other countries like Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland, which aren’t EU themselves for one reason or another, but all of which have close ties and partnerships with the body. But it’s a First Time Saying The Quiet Part Loud-ing, and a big one.
Indeed, senior EU people were reportedly very surprised she did. Did we mention this was the State of the European Union address? Guess what country she notably did not namecheck in her address?
But no, Canada’s not joining the EU, they’re just … announcing the frameworks of alliances that are going to reshape the very definition of the free world.
“Europe and Canada are each strong. Europe and Canada are even stronger together,” said Carney today, after Trump’s little temper tantrum.
He continued in his own address to the European Parliament today:
“I am not proposing a third bloc in order to become a great-power rival — only with better manners. We do not seek power to dominate others. On the contrary, we are pursuing resilience so that no one can control our open markets, impair our sovereignty, threaten our territorial integrity, or undermine our freedoms, our democracies, our rule of law.”
And right there what you have is a prime minister explaining what great power leadership looks like in the 21st century, while Grandpa Trump is left whining about why these aircraft carriers aren’t steam-powered anymore.
“Just as dominance is the arrogance of the hegemon, perfection is the enemy of the good. The economics are clear: the leverage of the powerful in an exploitive relationship collapses well before complete independence is achieved. Because diversity confers advantage.
“The objective is not self-sufficiency. It is collective resilience.”
It’s like smart retirement planning advice about diversifying, but translated into geopolitics. Of course, unlike Donald Trump, Mark Carney is actually an economist.
He got a standing ovation today too. Late next month, all the important players involved will get together in Montreal to start figuring out exactly what this new world order will look like.
Canada-knower Dean Blundell explains to the Americans in the audience that what is happening now is permanent:
You can’t un-pour concrete. Ports, LNG terminals, mines with European buyers signed for decades, processing plants, defence supply chains. These are 40 and 50 year assets. Nobody tears out a deepwater terminal in Newfoundland because Pennsylvania had a change of heart in 2028. Once the steel is in the ground the trade follows it, for the rest of my life and most of my son’s.
You can’t un-send a generation. Canadian kids are about to go to school in Lyon, Munich, and Warsaw. They’ll start companies there, marry people there, and come home with a whole continent in their phones. For a hundred years the default for an ambitious Canadian kid was Boston or New York or LA. That default is changing right now, and defaults don’t change back.
But don’t worry, Natalie can print out some AI slop of Trump renaming Canada AND Europe and the baby will feel all better now.
[Guardian / HuffPost / Carney speech transcript / Dean Blundell]
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The US is becoming a global pariah, and certainly Trump is to blame, but so are all of the spineless Republicans that have refused to exercise their duties as defined in our constitutional framework to stop all this. And now the UN has announced "reasonable grounds" to conclude that the US committed war crimes in Iran, so great trajectory there.
Unfortunately, in the end the USA is not indispensable. And especially if there's always the risk that Americans will want to prioritize their bigotry and elect more racist bombthrowers to destroy everything. Keep in mind, this current stupid trade war with Canada is all because America's Pilonidal Cyst has ripped up multiple agreements including his own just at random.
Murc's Law allows this kind of situation. Here we have just random synapses that fire and get a bug in this guy's ass and he decides he's going to throw out imaginary numbers. And the risk of this continuing to happen as America self-owns means that the world probably is going to start moving on from us. Because only Democrats are required to be attached to reality. And that's a bad situation to be in.
It's a shame to see this happen, but I understand.