Canadian PM Mark Carney Declares Flame Of American Global Era Extinguished
July 4, 1776-January 20, 2025. It was a good run, or something.
If you missed it, the end of the United States as a superpower that leads the free world was declared out loud yesterday at Davos, by the prime minister of Canada, Mark Carney, who is more brilliant than any leader the US can likely hope to have for a very long time. He declared it not with a bang, though it was received thusly by those who understood the gravity of what he was saying, and considering the standing ovation he got at the end, guess they thought it was a banger.
It wasn’t a whimper, either, though. Just a straightforward declaration of The Way Things Are. Not the way things might be if the US keeps fucking around. The way they are. And the way they are is that the old order has passed, it’s over. Not “let’s see what happens in the midterms,” not “hopefully AOC will be president in 2028.” Over.
Before the election, France’s Europe minister said that “We cannot leave the security of Europe in the hands of voters in Wisconsin every four years.” Or as Jonathan V. Last wrote in the Bulwark yesterday, before Carney’s speech happened, “Europe must consider any pause in America’s attempt to annex Greenland as temporary and subject to renewal whenever 40,000 Wisconsinites are aggrieved about the price of eggs.”
Carney’s speech is all of that, delivered with a matter-of-fact shrug. The US is no longer the leader of the free world. It’s a great power competing with other great powers for the spoils of the entire planet. Meanwhile, “the middle powers” — like Canada — “must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”
He received a standing ovation for his speech, which will be in the history books.
Other things that happened at Davos yesterday: Commerce Secretary Howard Nutlick, the thirstiest cum-catcher in the entire regime, cemented his lifelong humiliation by trying to snake-oil the serious people there on the dementia-fied notion that clean energy is a bad idea — Al Gore reportedly booed him — and refused to say that the US invading and stealing Greenland, for strategic Donald Trump Is The New Hitler And I Love Him For That purposes, is not a good idea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also prissed around and called Denmark “irrelevant,” bitched and moaned about French President Emmanuel Macron saying that Europeans preferred “respect to bullies” and “the rule of law to brutality.” That’s when common gentleman farmer Bessent wasn’t babbling weird shit about normal, regular Boomers owning “five, 10, or 12” houses for their retirement.
Oh yes, and he warned European leaders not to retaliate against whatever tariffs Donald Trump wants to dementia-rape them with next, we guess because Hitler’s new regime prefers it when people say “thank you.”
Other things that happened in Europe yesterday: A Danish MP literally said the words “Mr. President, FUCK OFF,” in a speech directed at Donald Trump. Also, a German politician became the first that we’ve seen, at least during these few news cycles, to suggest that maybe his country should boycott the World Cup. Keep an eye on that.
But back to that Carney speech. Because he said a lot of words too. He didn’t say Donald Trump’s name, though. He didn’t need to. What he said was calmly, straightforwardly earthshaking enough as it was.
It was full of these declarations of The Way Things Are: “Hegemons cannot continually monetize their relationships.”
It was a brutally blunt assessment of the The Way Things Were:
“We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false, that the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient, that trade rules were enforced asymmetrically, and we knew that international law applied with varied rigor, depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.
“This fiction was useful, and American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and support for frameworks for resolving disputes.
“So we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals, and we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality.”
Vs. The Way Things Are Now:
“This bargain no longer works.
“Let me be direct: We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”
And:
“Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.”
And:
“You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.”
And:
“When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.”
And:
“Stop invoking the rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised.”
And finally:
“We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy, but we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. This is the task of the middle powers, the countries that have the most to lose from a world of fortresses and the most to gain from genuine cooperation.
“The powerful have their power. But we have something too: the capacity to stop pretending, to name realities, to build our strength at home, and to act together.”
And so much more in between.
We feel like the divide in American politics these days — especially in the Democratic Party and on the Left, largely about Democrats who don’t understand/can’t accept/emotionally process that we’re never going back to the way things were, vs. those grownups who do.
Full speech and transcript after the jump.
Full transcript:
Thank you very much, Larry. I’m going to start in French, and then I’ll switch back to English.
(IN FRENCH)
It seems that every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry — that the rules-based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.
And this aphorism of Thucydides is presented as inevitable, as the natural logic of international relations reasserting itself. And faced with this logic, there is a strong tendency for countries to go along, get along to accommodate, to avoid trouble, to hope that compliance will buy safety.
Well, it won’t. So what are our options?
In 1978, the Czech dissident Václav Havel, later president, wrote an essay called “The Power of the Powerless,” and in it he asked a simple question: how did the communist system sustain itself?
And his answer began with a greengrocer.
Every morning, the shopkeeper places a sign in his window: “Workers of the world unite.” He doesn’t believe in it. No one does. But he places the sign anyway to avoid trouble, to signal compliance, to get along. And because every shopkeeper on every street does the same, the system persists — not through violence alone, but through the participation of ordinary people in rituals they privately know to be false.
Havel called this living within a lie. The system’s power comes not from its truth, but from everyone’s willingness to perform as if it were true. And its fragility comes from the same source. When even one person stops performing, when the greengrocer removes his sign, the illusion begins to crack.
Friends, it is time for companies and countries to take their signs down.
For decades, countries like Canada prospered under what we called the rules-based international order. We join its institutions, we praised its principles, we benefited from its predictability. And because of that, we could pursue values-based foreign policies under its protection.
We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false, that the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient, that trade rules were enforced asymmetrically, and we knew that international law applied with varied rigor, depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.
This fiction was useful, and American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and support for frameworks for resolving disputes.
So we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals, and we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality.
This bargain no longer works.
Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.
Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration. But more recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.
You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.
The multilateral institutions on which the middle powers have relied — the WTO, the UN, the COP, the very architecture of collective problem solving — are under threat. As a result, many countries are drawing the same conclusions that they must develop greater strategic autonomy in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance and supply chains. And this impulse is understandable.
A country that cannot feed itself, fuel itself, or defend itself has few options. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.
But let’s be clear-eyed about where this leads. A world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile, and less sustainable.
And there’s another truth: if great powers abandon even the pretense of rules and values for the unhindered pursuit of their power and interests, the gains from transactionalism will become harder to replicate.
Hegemons cannot continually monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify to hedge against uncertainty. They’ll buy insurance, increase options in order to rebuild sovereignty, sovereignty that was once grounded in rules but will increasingly be anchored in the ability to withstand pressure.
This room knows this is classic risk management. Risk management comes at a price, but that cost of strategic autonomy, of sovereignty, can also be shared. Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own fortresses. Shared standards reduce fragmentations. Complementarities are positive sum.
The question for middle powers like Canada is not whether to adapt to the new reality — we must.
The question is whether we adapt by simply building higher walls, or whether we can do something more ambitious.
Now, Canada was amongst the first to hear the wake-up call, leading us to fundamentally shift our strategic posture. Canadians know that our old, comfortable assumptions that our geography and alliance memberships automatically conferred prosperity and security, that assumption is no longer valid. And our new approach rests on what Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland, has termed value-based realism.
Or, to put it another way, we aim to be both principled and pragmatic. Principled in our commitment to fundamental values, sovereignty, territorial integrity, the prohibition of the use of force except when consistent with the UN Charter and respect for human rights.
And pragmatic in recognizing that progress is often incremental, that interests diverge, that not every partner will share all of our values.
So we’re engaging broadly, strategically, with open eyes. We actively take on the world as it is, not wait around for a world we wish to be.
We are calibrating our relationships so their depth reflects our values, and we’re prioritizing broad engagement to maximize our influence, given the fluidity of the world at the moment, the risks that this poses and the stakes for what comes next.
And we are no longer just relying on the strength of our values, but also the value of our strength.
We are building that strength at home. Since my government took office, we have cut taxes on incomes, on capital gains and business investment. We have removed all federal barriers to interprovincial trade. We are fast tracking $1 trillion of investments in energy, AI, critical minerals, new trade corridors and beyond. We’re doubling our defence spending by the end of this decade, and we’re doing so in ways that build our domestic industries. And we are rapidly diversifying abroad.
We’ve agreed to a comprehensive strategic partnership with the EU, including joining SAFE, the European defence procurement arrangements. We have signed 12 other trade and security deals on four continents in six months.
In the past few days, we’ve concluded new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar. We’re negotiating free trade pacts with India, ASEAN, Thailand, Philippines and Mercosur.
We’re doing something else: to help solve global problems, we’re pursuing variable geometry. In other words, different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests. So on Ukraine, we’re a core member of the Coalition of the Willing and one of the largest per capita contributors to its defence and security.
On Arctic sovereignty, we stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark and fully support their unique right to determine Greenland’s future.
Our commitment to NATO’s Article 5 is unwavering, so we’re working with our NATO allies, including the Nordic-Baltic Eight, to further secure the alliance’s northern and western flanks, including through Canada’s unprecedented investments in over-the-horizon radar, in submarines, in aircraft, and boots on the ground — boots on the ice.
Canada strongly opposes tariffs over Greenland and calls for focused talks to achieve our shared objectives of security and prosperity in the Arctic.
On plurilateral trade, we’re championing efforts to build a bridge between the Trans-Pacific partnership and the European Union, which would create a new trading bloc of 1.5 billion people on critical minerals.
We’re forming buyer’s clubs anchored in the G7 so the world can diversify away from concentrated supply. And on AI, we’re cooperating with like-minded democracies to ensure that we won’t ultimately be forced to choose between hegemons and hyperscalers.
This is not naïve multilateralism, nor is it relying on their institutions. It’s building coalitions that work issue by issue with partners who share enough common ground to act together. In some cases, this will be the vast majority of nations. What it’s doing is creating a dense web of connections across trade, investment, culture on which we can draw for future challenges and opportunities.
Our view is the middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.
But I’d also say that great powers can afford, for now, to go it alone. They have the market size, the military capacity, and the leverage to dictate terms. Middle powers do not. But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what’s offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating.
This is not sovereignty. It’s the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination.
In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in-between have a choice: compete with each other for favour, or combine to create a third path with impact. We shouldn’t allow the rise of hard power to blind us to the fact that the power of legitimacy, integrity, and rules will remain strong if we choose to wield it together.
Which brings me back to Havel. What does it mean for middle powers to live the truth?
First, it means naming reality. Stop invoking rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised. Call it what it is: a system of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as coercion.
It means acting consistently, applying the same standards to allies and rivals. When middle powers criticize economic intimidation from one direction but stay silent when it comes from another, we are keeping the sign in the window.
It means building what we claim to believe in, rather than waiting for the old order to be restored. It means creating institutions and agreements that function as described, and it means reducing the leverage that enables coercion.
That’s building a strong domestic economy. It should be every government’s immediate priority.
And diversification internationally is not just economic prudence; it’s a material foundation for honest foreign policy, because countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.
So, Canada. Canada has what the world wants. We are an energy superpower. We hold vast reserves of critical minerals. We have the most educated population in the world. Our pension funds are amongst the world’s largest and most sophisticated investors. In other words, we have capital talent. We also have a government with immense fiscal capacity to act decisively. And we have the values to which many others aspire.
Canada is a pluralistic society that works. Our public square is loud, diverse and free. Canadians remain committed to sustainability. We are a stable and reliable partner in a world that is anything but, a partner that builds and values relationships for the long term.
And we have something else: we have a recognition of what’s happening and determination to act accordingly. We understand that this rupture calls for more than adaptation. It calls for honesty about the world as it is.
We are taking a sign out of the window.
We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy, but we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. This is the task of the middle powers, the countries that have the most to lose from a world of fortresses and the most to gain from genuine cooperation.
The powerful have their power. But we have something too: the capacity to stop pretending, to name realities, to build our strength at home, and to act together.
That is Canada’s path. We choose it openly and confidently, and it is a path wide open to any country willing to take it with us.
Thank you very much.
And that is the world we live in now.
Not with a bang, not with a whimper, but with a speech from the prime minister of our next-door neighbor and formerly our most steadfast ally (you know, besides Denmark), in front of all the most important men and women in the world.
And they gave him a standing ovation.
Donald Trump spoke in Davos today. No standing ovations for him, but he referred to Greenland as “the northern frontier of the Western hemisphere” and therefore “our territory” — Putin taught him that — and also said that “Canada lives by the benefit of the United States. Remember that, Mark, when you make your statements."
Guess Carney’s speech hurt Little Pisshitler’s feelings.
Oh, and he kept confusing Iceland for Greenland, because dementia, we guess.
And:
Also, Howard Nutlick got heckled and jeered at a dinner hosted by Blackrock, so who can say America isn’t nailing it?
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I owned 15 homes, but I landed on Park Place and was wiped out.
My dad was offered a position in Switzerland at his company when my mom was pregnant with me, but they opted to stay in the US because they didn’t want the challenges of having a child born while living in a foreign country.
I find myself wondering more and more how my life would be different if they’d taken that opportunity.