With all due respect, anyone who imagines that people really like Biden really are living in a bubble. Let's start with OHJB's very marginally 'better' approval rating vis-a-vis Trump., which is far less an endorsement of Joe for being Joe, and very much a function of his not being Trump. An opinion validated by the 10 point 'enthusiasm gap' between GOP and DP voters. As well as being reinforced when one looks at Biden's stand-alone approval rating (among all voters), which sunk beneath waves in late Aug. of 2021, and hasn't come within 10 points of coming up for air since.
The one and only thing Biden has in his favor is Trump's in-the-shitter approval rating (bobbing between -25 to -30 points), which could result in an even higher popular vote landslide, but hardly inspires confidence in an Electoral College victory as well. And let's just put aside the consequences this has for down-ballot Dems.
As for comparisons to 2020, it helps to remember that Biden won only 51.4% of all primary votes, with the rest of the pack getting the other 48.6%; and half of the loser's votes came after all but Sanders dropped out by March 8th (with Bernie dropping out on April 8th). Which is hardly the ringing endorsement of popularity it's misrepresented as being. Also, Biden finished fourth in IA, fifth in NH, a very distant (-21+ pts) in NV, before finally winning (with a plurality) in SC. By the time Sanders withdrew, Biden was declared the nominee on the strength of winning primaries in 14 red states (9 of them in the former Confederacy), 12 of which he went on to lose in the G.E. IOW, the most conservative, anti-progressive states chose the DNC's (preferred) candidate for the entire DP. Just as they had in '16.
If anything, this is the good news. The not-good news is Biden (and the DP) has been haemorrhaging support across all demographics since 2020, particularly in key constituencies--minorities, youth, environmentalists, just to identify a few of the more significant. Which is another discussion for another time.
I reject every narrative generated by the bullshit polls. Even if they were worth anything, that's not the way things work. It will be state by state and state polls are the only things that will matter - about a month before the election. Otherwise this is all a steaming pile of worse-than-useless speculation or, more likely it's just concern trolling.
I totally agree that, thanks to the Electoral College, state polls are the most useful and relevant in terms of conducting one's campaign. That said, in '16 both the state and national polls pretty much called it correctly; the fault was entirely on the Clinton campaign's incompetence.
And speaking of the E.C., forget Biden's popular and EC vote 'landslides': he still came within three states and 47K votes of throwing the election into the GOP controlled (for E.C. purposes) House; and four states/77K votes of losing the E.C. outright. Only a fool would dismiss this happening next year, after the GOP has had four years to Jim Crow the shit out of their election laws to disenfranchise Dem voters. Btw, the '20 polls, despite being the worst of any I've seen in the past 40+ years, were still plausibly accurate.
You just took a circular route to prove my point , and "forget Biden's popular [...] vote landslides" is a straw man.
If you are worried about Biden vs. Trump, whining about Bidens performance in a national head to head poll will not help and just sounds like concern trolling to me. There are specific problems and this shit is just missing the trees for the forest.
I just bought a Dark Brandon Color-Changing Mug. I drink hot tea all winter, but I'll pretend it's coffee. Brilliant of his team to embrace the Dark Brandon meme and get the Boss to do a video. Great way to make a campaign contribution!
When asked about the supposed dreary polls for Biden running for reelection this weekend, Gov. Howard Dean dismissed all the brouhaha as par for the course during "silly season". I mostly agree, but I think Democrats really need to start pushing back RIGHT NOW, before silly season becomes Holy Shit election season.
Just got the new Atlantic and looking forward to reading this story.
Of COURSE the guy in OUR is accused of sexual harassment. It's almost like they have to check the box for that when they get up on their high horse and go after child sex trafficking, drag queens, LGBTQ+ etc, trying to hide in plain site. See also church youth minsters and anyone in a religious organization screaming "grooming".
Okay, I'll read the paper version of "The Atlantic," which now is aging like fine wine on the coffee table. Also, per the AP Stylebook, it's not a crack house, it's a crack home.
A reminder that this weekend's movie is 𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝑭𝒓𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒔 (1996), available for free with subscription on Peacock. For $3.99 in the usual places. Also it's our 75th Movie Night!!!
- in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia supports the Azerbaijani military intervention, because legal borders are sacrosanct and clearly trump local people's right to self-determination;
- in Donbass, Crimea and Sevastopol, Russian military violence is perfectly legitimate, because the people's right to self-determination(*) is sacrosanct and clearly trumps legal borders.
(*) as determined by sham referendums held under military occupation.
So what I'm gleaning from all these headlines is that the news is now just bunch of the most whiny people on earth getting their panties in a bundle and wanting to let everyone know why they're upset.
I had thought Trump was associated with the Russian Mob, but I had no idea it went as far back as the 1980's. That was an eyeopener! And it likely means his deceased father and his children all knew about his allegiance to Russian influences.
Apart from that, Tim Ballard is a DB! Would the Mormon's really elect him?
The FBI really screwed-the-pooch (sorry lil doggo's, it's only a phrase) on the Hillary investigation. I've heard Trump claiming they're corrupt for years, but of course, I never believe anything out of his pathological lie hole. The bastard was (unusually) truthful on that topic. I wanna "do-over" Donny, know what I mean, wink-wink?
I enjoyed Dan Pfieffer's commentary, as always. Dan knows his shit.
Yes........Rudy used the Russians to help take down the Italian mob in NYC and Trump was the money laundered out of Atlantic City, going back to the first casino.
The Russians ran their money thru Duetcshebank, "coincidentally" the only outfit that would handle Trump's business.
So Joe Klein is going to stop writing about personal issues like lying about sexual assaults, Qanon bullshit, and other individual idiosyncrasies of Republican politicians but continue to attack Democratic policy issues like immigration and political correctness. Yet he mentions nothing about attacking Republican policy issues like umm, well, er. I guess that's because they have no substantive policy issues other than obstructing Democrats and wasting legislative time and money on trumped up and fake claims of misdeeds by Democrats. Oh, they do have the perennial push for more tax cuts and when a Democrat is in the White House, the national debt, but I think the public is getting tired of that and realize their tax cuts and military spending on unnecessary wars are the biggest factor in the increasing national debt since Reagan crashed the USSR by out spending them on military resources and his tax cuts. One cut being such a disaster he had to push taxes back up a little.
Today’s hed of Pallas’s kittens is from YouTube channel Manulization. More here: https://open.substack.com/pub/martiniambassador/p/pallass-kittens
My first thought was "Those are some funny looking raccoons"
I adore Pallas cats. Just look at this guy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Sg8FMNEt8KY
Obi-wan Catnobi
SQUEEE!!!
They're so cute but I bet they would rip your face off if you tried to pet them.
I want to cuddle those wild babies sooooo much.
If I had an X-Men style mutant power, I would want to be to be able to cuddle any animal without getting mauled. Panda snuggles, here I come!
Pandas smell like bears. You wouldn't want to cuddle too long.
But they roll around everywhere and behave like a drunken toddler. I'll put a dab of Vicks under my nose and be a panda for a day.
Off to find this channel - thanks!
If you click on my link there it’ll take you to a page with a direct link to the channel 😃
I try to make sure to give creators their due and help drive traffic for those interested. Like I said downthread, IP theft is gross.
Those are some very unsure kittens. :)
They don’t want mom mad at them for wandering too far.
Nobody wants mom mad at them.
With all due respect, anyone who imagines that people really like Biden really are living in a bubble. Let's start with OHJB's very marginally 'better' approval rating vis-a-vis Trump., which is far less an endorsement of Joe for being Joe, and very much a function of his not being Trump. An opinion validated by the 10 point 'enthusiasm gap' between GOP and DP voters. As well as being reinforced when one looks at Biden's stand-alone approval rating (among all voters), which sunk beneath waves in late Aug. of 2021, and hasn't come within 10 points of coming up for air since.
The one and only thing Biden has in his favor is Trump's in-the-shitter approval rating (bobbing between -25 to -30 points), which could result in an even higher popular vote landslide, but hardly inspires confidence in an Electoral College victory as well. And let's just put aside the consequences this has for down-ballot Dems.
As for comparisons to 2020, it helps to remember that Biden won only 51.4% of all primary votes, with the rest of the pack getting the other 48.6%; and half of the loser's votes came after all but Sanders dropped out by March 8th (with Bernie dropping out on April 8th). Which is hardly the ringing endorsement of popularity it's misrepresented as being. Also, Biden finished fourth in IA, fifth in NH, a very distant (-21+ pts) in NV, before finally winning (with a plurality) in SC. By the time Sanders withdrew, Biden was declared the nominee on the strength of winning primaries in 14 red states (9 of them in the former Confederacy), 12 of which he went on to lose in the G.E. IOW, the most conservative, anti-progressive states chose the DNC's (preferred) candidate for the entire DP. Just as they had in '16.
If anything, this is the good news. The not-good news is Biden (and the DP) has been haemorrhaging support across all demographics since 2020, particularly in key constituencies--minorities, youth, environmentalists, just to identify a few of the more significant. Which is another discussion for another time.
I reject every narrative generated by the bullshit polls. Even if they were worth anything, that's not the way things work. It will be state by state and state polls are the only things that will matter - about a month before the election. Otherwise this is all a steaming pile of worse-than-useless speculation or, more likely it's just concern trolling.
I totally agree that, thanks to the Electoral College, state polls are the most useful and relevant in terms of conducting one's campaign. That said, in '16 both the state and national polls pretty much called it correctly; the fault was entirely on the Clinton campaign's incompetence.
And speaking of the E.C., forget Biden's popular and EC vote 'landslides': he still came within three states and 47K votes of throwing the election into the GOP controlled (for E.C. purposes) House; and four states/77K votes of losing the E.C. outright. Only a fool would dismiss this happening next year, after the GOP has had four years to Jim Crow the shit out of their election laws to disenfranchise Dem voters. Btw, the '20 polls, despite being the worst of any I've seen in the past 40+ years, were still plausibly accurate.
You just took a circular route to prove my point , and "forget Biden's popular [...] vote landslides" is a straw man.
If you are worried about Biden vs. Trump, whining about Bidens performance in a national head to head poll will not help and just sounds like concern trolling to me. There are specific problems and this shit is just missing the trees for the forest.
It's perplexing, because the Biden administration is doing more for this country than any previous administration in memory.
I just bought a Dark Brandon Color-Changing Mug. I drink hot tea all winter, but I'll pretend it's coffee. Brilliant of his team to embrace the Dark Brandon meme and get the Boss to do a video. Great way to make a campaign contribution!
I ordered the coffee mug for my dad. He'll love it, even if he doesn't know what Dark Brandon is.
And I set up my monthly contributions to the Biden/Harris campaign, and to Red, Wine & Blue, alongside my monthly contribution to Wonkette. :)
When asked about the supposed dreary polls for Biden running for reelection this weekend, Gov. Howard Dean dismissed all the brouhaha as par for the course during "silly season". I mostly agree, but I think Democrats really need to start pushing back RIGHT NOW, before silly season becomes Holy Shit election season.
Good fun.
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/x-users-to-require-elon-musk-to-pay-them-to-keep-using-it
Just got the new Atlantic and looking forward to reading this story.
Of COURSE the guy in OUR is accused of sexual harassment. It's almost like they have to check the box for that when they get up on their high horse and go after child sex trafficking, drag queens, LGBTQ+ etc, trying to hide in plain site. See also church youth minsters and anyone in a religious organization screaming "grooming".
Okay, I'll read the paper version of "The Atlantic," which now is aging like fine wine on the coffee table. Also, per the AP Stylebook, it's not a crack house, it's a crack home.
Roodles groped Cassidy Hutchinson on January 6. He is so disgusting.
Rudy Guiliani, aka Roodles the Clown. Or Roodles the Shitbag, which is more accurate.
A reminder that this weekend's movie is 𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝑭𝒓𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒔 (1996), available for free with subscription on Peacock. For $3.99 in the usual places. Also it's our 75th Movie Night!!!
https://open.substack.com/pub/ziggywiggy/p/wonkette-movie-night-sept-23rd-the?r=2knfuc&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Would make a great TV show.
Joe Klein is still alive?
I thought the air went out of his balloon when Bill Clinton exited stage left.
What a tool.
So, to be clear:
- in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia supports the Azerbaijani military intervention, because legal borders are sacrosanct and clearly trump local people's right to self-determination;
- in Donbass, Crimea and Sevastopol, Russian military violence is perfectly legitimate, because the people's right to self-determination(*) is sacrosanct and clearly trumps legal borders.
(*) as determined by sham referendums held under military occupation.
So what I'm gleaning from all these headlines is that the news is now just bunch of the most whiny people on earth getting their panties in a bundle and wanting to let everyone know why they're upset.
panties in a bunch, please
I had thought Trump was associated with the Russian Mob, but I had no idea it went as far back as the 1980's. That was an eyeopener! And it likely means his deceased father and his children all knew about his allegiance to Russian influences.
Apart from that, Tim Ballard is a DB! Would the Mormon's really elect him?
The FBI really screwed-the-pooch (sorry lil doggo's, it's only a phrase) on the Hillary investigation. I've heard Trump claiming they're corrupt for years, but of course, I never believe anything out of his pathological lie hole. The bastard was (unusually) truthful on that topic. I wanna "do-over" Donny, know what I mean, wink-wink?
I enjoyed Dan Pfieffer's commentary, as always. Dan knows his shit.
Yes........Rudy used the Russians to help take down the Italian mob in NYC and Trump was the money laundered out of Atlantic City, going back to the first casino.
The Russians ran their money thru Duetcshebank, "coincidentally" the only outfit that would handle Trump's business.
These are known things.
So Joe Klein is going to stop writing about personal issues like lying about sexual assaults, Qanon bullshit, and other individual idiosyncrasies of Republican politicians but continue to attack Democratic policy issues like immigration and political correctness. Yet he mentions nothing about attacking Republican policy issues like umm, well, er. I guess that's because they have no substantive policy issues other than obstructing Democrats and wasting legislative time and money on trumped up and fake claims of misdeeds by Democrats. Oh, they do have the perennial push for more tax cuts and when a Democrat is in the White House, the national debt, but I think the public is getting tired of that and realize their tax cuts and military spending on unnecessary wars are the biggest factor in the increasing national debt since Reagan crashed the USSR by out spending them on military resources and his tax cuts. One cut being such a disaster he had to push taxes back up a little.
What would it actually take to ban Nazi groups in the USA? We are a fucking breeding ground for them. There has to be an angle. Terrorism?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/20/germany-bans-neo-nazi-group-hammerskins-deutschland-us-extremism
Patriot Act would seem appropriate......that's still a thing, right?
Or does it only apply when a Republican is POTUS?
asking for a friend
We can't seem to charge everyone that charged the Capital building, two and a half years on so it doesn't seem terribly likely
understatement. ACLU would probably fight a ban, TBH, with (sort of) good reason.