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ziggywiggy's avatar

This escalator to the subway platform at my subway stop has always fascinated me. I love it the most when it’s empty.

https://substack.com/profile/155618292-ziggywiggy/note/c-72044692?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=2knfuc

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Crip Dyke's avatar

So, often in public policy there are two competing philosophies to addressing a problem -- harm reduction and eradication. Harm reduction is absolutely necessary. You don't want people to suffer more than necessary while you're waiting on elimination policies to work. But eradication is far more preferable in the long run, if you can get there.

There are some policy areas, however, where the philosophies don't compete much because one approach overwhelms the other.

With drug use we have historically seen eradication dominate and harm reduction approaches demonized as a result. On the level of public policy, we decided for decades that we don't care if addicts hurt or die.

With natural disasters harm reduction overwhelms eradication. You can argue that since we can never fully eradicate natural disasters that the intense focus on harm reduction makes sense, but this misunderstands the eradication approach as a tyrannical all-or-nothing strategy that is really only familiar to us in the context of drug abuse policy. There is far more that we could do to avoid tragedies before they happen. You don't want to depopulate Tampa in a week because of Milton, but it is possible to ban new wood frame construction. Concrete dome houses, for instance, are incredibly resistant to hurricane wind damage and if you require all living spaces to be elevated (allow parking underneath if you like) flood damage is also largely avoided. (You'll have to relandscape and maybe replace a car, but the home will be fine.)

The problem with drug policy was that we don't care about other people if we see their suffering as resulting from their bad choices. The problem with disaster mitigation is that we don't see the bad choices that keep happening between the storms.

Building structures that don't need to be rebuilt after the normal and expected once-in-a-decade disasters might increase costs and affect local affordability, but skyrocketing insurance from recurring bailouts also affect costs and increase local affordability.

Bizarrely, we treat the first as the fault of elected officials and vote them out of office if they make reasonable long-term decisions for the benefit of the community, but the second we treat as the random result of an unpredictable Mother Nature.

At some point we need to face the costs of living in certain areas (the areas of New Orleans that are below sea level, much of Florida, waterless deserts in Arizona and California) and accept that if the market decides that building up to codes that prevent recurring costs is too expensive, then the land in an area can be left undeveloped or even have its existing buildings removed to return the area to its natural state.

Now that can happen after a season of multiple horrible hurricanes followed by an inability to get affordable insurance, and it probably will happen that way. But it would be so much better if we could plan for this in advance because the economic effects of planned limits on building are much easier on the human beings of an area than the economic effects of a sudden depopulation in the wake of hurricanes like Helene and Milton.

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