LIVE: Kamala Harris At National Association Of Black Journalists!
Remember how poorly this went for Donald Trump?
Remember when Donald Trump went to visit the National Association of Black Journalists and it was so thoroughly humiliating for him and they laughed at him to his face and it went so poorly that his own people stopped the event halfway through? And then he and his buds were pretty sure he had totally nailed it?
Well, Kamala Harris is doing the same thing this afternoon! We have a feeling it might go better for her, since she’s not a racist wannabe dictator and a stupid moron. But we guess she could just totally bone it! But probably not though.
Watch and find out!
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I'm going to say something, and if people hate me for it, they hate me for it, but it's this:
International diplomacy is tricky, and requires a balance of carrots and sticks, with an important variable being the ability to propose carrots and sticks about which you're not seriously invested, but which are designed to shift the window of the acceptable by making your negotiating partner think more about what they might be giving up in opportunities, or what they might pay in penalties, even if the odds of those things happening are very, very slim.
As a result, it's fruitless to ask ANY candidate -- not just Trump, not just Harris, but anyone -- how they would handle this or that negotiation and which levers of influence they would press. Indeed, some levers can **only** be pressed invisibly. Imagine threatening to remove intelligence support, or threatening to leak that the recent beeper-bomb explosions were only possible with help that the US provided ... and might not be willing to provide any more. Even if the US provided no help, or even if the US was never seriously considering lessening the help it provides, the threat, if carried out, would provide a morale boost to Israel's enemies.
And how could Israel respond? If they shout that the US is threatening to remove intelligence support, they hearten their enemies in exactly the same way.
I don't mean to imply that this is a good policy or that it would be effective, but instead I only wish to demonstrate a policy of persuasion-through-coercion can exist that would be ineffective if made public. Understanding that the secrecy is part of the effectiveness of at least some negotiating tactics means understanding that by announcing a tactic in advance, a presidential candidate can negate (or at least lessen) the effectiveness of many of our available tactics.
I want peace in Gaza. I want peace in Israel. I want the Jewish people to be safe from all harm. I want the Palestinian people to be safe from all harm. I want all those who commit violent crime to face justice. And I want the USA to take these priorities seriously, to push them as if lives depend on them, because they do.
But asking Harris how, specifically, she would push harder is not only naive, it's counterproductive. The journalist's question about 2,000 pound bombs is a perfect example. If the US stops selling Israel such bombs generally, then Israel will find another supplier or build them within Israel, developing a new manufacturing capacity it did not have before. The power of the threat of restricting such sales is in the surprise, to deny Israel a weapon at a moment when they want the delivery sooner than would be possible if they went into bomb manufacturing themselves, with all the factory development or retooling that implies.
While I would love to have more specific information -- mostly because I simply want to be convinced that Harris is going to bring enough power to bear to end the death and destruction -- we cannot get specific policies this way. The ones a politician is willing to detail will be abandoned at the table as the Israelis (and Hamas, when we're negotiating with Hamas, though the question was about Israel) will have prepared for the tactics which have been announced in advance.
The Israel/US relationship is important, and delicate, and frustrating, and strong. It is a seeming paradox where often relationships count as much or more than tactics. I don't mind wanting to be convinced that Harris can bring and will bring peace. But let's not pretend that campaign trail questions about the cards Harris is holding will be any more effective than asking a bridge player what cards they're willing to play to win. Neither diplomacy nor bridge work like that.
Her voice is being affected by the relentless talking on the campaign trail.