OK, folks, the first polls close at 6:00 p.m. ET, and so that’s when we’re starting things up here. We will have news about things and things about news. Hopefully some election results.
The first closings come in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Remember Liz Dye’s kid Joe Dye wrote a whole What To Expect When You’re Expecting Results From Indiana And Kentucky guide. So we’ll look at that!
More things as they come!
By the way, though, from Rachel Bitecofer:
Also interestingly some of the first exit polls we’re seeing have the most people rating “democracy” as their number one issue. More than the economy. If so, then we imagine the Harris campaign made a good bet there.
Also this:
He means he saw those long voting lines in Philly and he’s currently making dooky sharts in his pants thinking about prison.
OK, things as they happen!
6:11: Oh damn, Kornacki on MSNBC is wearing GRAY PANTS. We repeat, he is in GRAY PANTS.
Also all thse fucking fake bomb threats coming in to Democratic polling places from Russian email addresses, wonder who’s calling the shots on that op.
6:26: One big place we’re looking for is Hamilton County, Indiana, an exurban county outside Indianapolis. It’s one that the numbers nerds are looking to see if Harris can either significantly close the gap in (Trump won by 19 in 2016, 7 in 2020) or actually flip, might tell us a lot about how the exurbs are gonna go.
6:39: Numbers-knowers emphasize we shouldn’t try to understand trends until we get full results from a county, buuuuuuut, speaking of Hamilton County:
6:42: Pablo José Hernández will be the new Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico (it’s like their non-voting congressman). That’s a flip into the Democratic caucus, at least.
6:47: Hey do you guys know what a “bellwether” actually is? It is a SHEEP with a BELL on its NECK that’s at the FRONT of a PRANCERCISE GROUP of SHEEP.
That’s why they call certain counties and states bellwethers, because they are like loud sheep that ring bells.
This has been a word lesson.
6:49: Numbers guy Adam Carlson notes that Florida (minus the panhandle), Georgia, Virginia, plus some New Hampshire and more Indiana are closing in 10 minutes. Florida, Georgia, and Virginia are fast counters. We’ll start knowing things soon.
6:59: FIRST STATE CALL:
7:00:
OK, actual closings.
Trump wins Kentucky, Kamala Harris wins Vermont. Everything else is too early to call but nothing unexpected.
AP calls IN-GOV for Republican Mike Braun. MSNBC says too early to call but PFFFT.
7:05: Trump wins Indiana, per Cook Political Report and NBC News. Jim Banks wins Indiana Senate race, per NBC News. Kornacki looking at a majority Hispanic county in central Florida (Osceola) might be suggesting Trump still making more inroads with Hispanic voters. (Not Cuban. Puerto Rican.) So that could be bad, for Florida.
7:10: Sounds like Sumter County, Florida is moving LEFT a bit. Or maybe it’s near the same as 2020. That’s where The Villages — old — is. Which could tell us a lot about whether Ann Selzer is correct in Iowa about a huge change coming from the Olders.
Now here’s another one:
Regardless, don’t be freaking out about Florida. Florida is bad.
7:21: Gross.
7:27: Soooo far it seems like the rurals are probably going to continue their move toward Trump and the suburbs are continuing their move toward Democrats.
In other words, things we know.
North Carolina polls about to close.
7:31: Trump wins West Virginia WHATTTTTT?
Also Jim Justice (R) getting the seat Joe Manchin fucking off out of. We all knew that was going to happen.
7:40: Y’all, we are starting to see people, including that dickslit who was so awfully disgusting to Mehdi Hasan, acknowledge that Mark Robinson has lost his race for North Carolina governor.
7:59: By the way, here comes Pennsylvania. And tons of other states. Not much other for sure news of anything.
8:01: NBC projects Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma and Tennessee for Trump
DC, Maryland and Massachusetts for Harris.
Those are the race calls at the top of the hour.
8:06: Lots of tweets about how results from Loudoun County, Virginia — DC suburban, also the center of many of the Republican anti-trans crusades — could be very bad news for Harris. Also seeing some suggestions that there might be a data error. So … relax.
It is just far too early to know things for sure.
Oh, Rick Scott kept his Senate seat in Florida.
8:14: Shockingly, Trump wins South Carolina, per NBC News.
8:24: Looks like the weed initiative has failed in Florida, and also the abortion. As Josh Marshall just tweeted, the 60 percent threshold there is extremely tough.
8:27: All the liberal-est northeastern senators keep their seats. Also Marsha Blackburn The Actual Devil keeps hers in Tennessee, though we are personally going to be very curious about the margin on that one.
8:31: Scratch what I said about abortion in Florida. We’ll see if others call it, but it’s a lot closer and I’m not sure if it failed or not.
Anyway, Trump won Arkansas, giant wanking motion dot gif.
8:34: And Lisa Blunt Rochester is the new Democratic senator from Delaware, and Harris won the state.
Also, Liz Dye’s numbers guy AKA her son just posted a new update, and it’s basically what we said about how rurals are getting more Trumpy and exurbs and suburbs continue to go left, gosh it’s like we’re both mathematicians, except just him and not me.
8:45: I’ve only seen this one place, but that one place is projecting Harris will win the Nebraska Second District, so that’s that one district in the Omaha area that splits its electoral votes, and the one in the “Blue Wall” scenario where if Harris wins all three PLUS the Nebraska one, she wins exactly 270.
8:47: And Decision Desk HQ is going ahead and projecting Virginia for Harris.
9:00: Here comes a whole bunch of states closing right now.
Obviously nothing surprising.
Trump will be winning Texas. So 2024 is not the year that changes. Trump takes Dakotas and Wyoming.
Oh and yes, confirmed, the abortion amendment fails in Florida, because they basically rigged it against democracy with the 60 percent threshold.
9:23: Sarah McBride will be the first openly trans member of Congress, representing Delaware.
Also Trump won Mississippi and Louisiana and Harris won Rhode Island.
Oh, and Fani Willis has been re-elected the DA in Fulton County, Georgia.
Eating pizza, we’re in that long period of the night where there’s no point in stressing too much, we just don’t know enough shit.
9:35: Decision Desk HQ says Angela Alsobrooks defeats Larry Hogan for the Senate seat in Maryland. Same source also projects North Carolina for Trump.
Which means … y’all, it just might be a Blue Wall election.
9:41: Abortion wins big in Maryland and in New York — that Equal Rights Amendment, remember?
And the story continues to be that rural continues to get Trumpier while suburbs get more Keep Calm-ala.
9:46: NBC News projects Ohio for Trump. No surprise.
9:47: By the way, seeing some pushback on that Decision Desk call for North Carolina for Trump.
A la:
10:00: Hey you guys, Trump won Utah and Montana.
Meanwhile, polls “closed’ in Nevada, except there are still people waiting in line SO … yeah yep it’s too close to call!
10:05: Oh by the way Republican Kelly Ayotte has won the governorship in New Hampshire, which means that office stays in Republican hands.
Simon Rosenberg (Hopium guy) just sent out an email that says WI-SEN has been called for Tammy Baldwin, but we’ve only seen it from one outfit, so we’ll wait to see if we see it from AP or NBC News, etc.
10:10: Harris wins Colorado, duh.
10:22: Welp, NBC News just projected Texas Senate for Ted Cruz, not Colin Allred. So.
Nebraska Senate Dan Osborn/Deb Fischer race still too early to call.
Oh and Trump wins Iowa. Guess the Selzer poll did not nail it this time.
10:29: Oh well, that’s fun!
Also Tim Kaine keeps his Senate seat in Virginia.
10:36: Trump wins three of the five Nebraska electoral votes. Haven’t seen others call the Omaha district yet.
10:44: We are very much at a point where we don’t know what’s going to happen, and so we’d like to tell everybody just to breathe for now. Lots of votes still to come in these blue wall states.
11:00: Here comes the West Coast. California called. Still no swing states called.
11:09: NBC News calls Oregon for Harris.
11:16: Sherrod Brown goes down to that freak Bernie Moreno.
Adam Schiff however goes directly to the Senate, having won both the regular election and the special election to replace Dianne Feinstein, which happened simultaneously.
Martin Heinrich keeps his Senate seat in New Mexico.
11:23: An update from campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon to staff. Maddow is reading the same email on air righ tnow.
11:28: Harris keeps Connecticut and Washington in the D column. Stickin’ with the nailbiter!
11:34: AP calls North Carolina for Trump.
11:35: Good news! Missouri’s abortion rights amendment passed, and it looks like the abortion rights amendment in Arizona is doing well.
Amy Klobuchar keeps her Senate seat in Minnesota.
11:55: All these swing state Senate races are too close to call — Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey, Elissa Slotkin, etc. Ruben Gallego is currently running well ahead of Kari Lake.
12:26: This has not been a good night, but it’s not over. The AP has called the Senate for the Republicans, but there’s still quite a good chance the House flips in the other direction.
And we just do not know what will happen with the presidential race.
We’re all in it together, and it ain’t over until it’s over.
2:16: Fox News has called the whole election for Trump. Others haven’t, but with Pennsylvania being over, it’s over.
We’ll have a late night post for you in a bit from Rebecca.
We’re still all in this together.
Please tip your bartenders if you’re still with us, and … yeah.
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Ok, I have smoked three joints today. I have four more rolled. How high will I be by the end of the evening if I smoke all of them?
According to my the math the answer is yes.
Interesting:
Taniel
@taniel.bsky.social
RESULT: Kentuckians have rejected Amendment 2, the ballot measure that would have allowed public funding to go to private schools.
November 6, 2024 at 2:48 AM (my time)
https://bsky.app/profile/taniel.bsky.social/post/3laamvnxzna2c